30 Dec 2010, 3:37pm
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  • Seeking Shares for income in 2011 – this was easier in 2010

    Unlike investors saving for long-term growth, I want income, and over a specific period between 2012 and 2015, between when I plan to leave work and before I draw my pension. I’ll draw it somewhat early, to reduce the annual amount.

    The reasoning is that a pension is taxed as income, so if I can build dividend income to top it up in my ISA, drawing the pension early and lowering the annual amount keeps more of my income below the tax threshold, hopefully £10000 by then. It also lets me stop working earlier, which is all to the good,  and I can make up the difference with the income from my ISA, which isn’t considered as income (though note that dividend income is already taxed at source in the UK)

    I expect the government to be rapacious in clawing tax from as many places as it can as it fights the economic headwinds, and I want to do as little as I can to help them. Hence minimising income and maximising tax sheltered stuff.

    Because of this short time scale I am seeking income, not growth from my ISA, though obviously at the moment I reinvest the income to maximise my tax-sheltered stake.

    The trouble is that there is much complication. I target a yield of 5%, and it is hard to get enough diversification in an ISA using individual shares in a high yield portfolio. I try and keep any purchases in my ISA above £1000 and prefer lumps of £2000-3000. By using the grouping function of my ISA provider I can get trading costs down to £1.50 Since you can put at most £10,000 a year into an ISA, if I focused all my ISA as a HYP I would be woefully undiversified for a long time, accumulating 5 different shares a year.

    Investment Trusts – diversification for a smaller stake

    That is short of the required 15 according to TMFPyad or 20 according to Monevator. This year I cheated and used an investment trust, Merchants Trust, which I bought in July when it was at about a 5% discount. I bought a reasonable stake in it, MRCH is about 30% of my ISA, and planned to carry on purchasing similar sized lumps of another IT, next one around this time of year.

    I fund my ISA from saving from earnings so I can’t load up at the beginning of the year as you’re supposed to. Plus I get some temporal diversification in buying through the year, which in a world of bear markets and double dips is no bad thing.

    However, on looking at the investment trust market I observe that clearly I haven’t been the only person with this bright idea and I’d now have to pay a premium for most income investment trust including all the ones on my shortlist, so that idea has now been stuffed. I’m obviously chuffed with my existing investment in MRCH and that can stay right where it is, it’s just a pity that I didn’t get some more at that price.

    The DIY High Yield Portfolio (HYP)

    So I have to look again at doing this HYP job for myself. Upside is no annual management charges, but the downsides suck, big time. They include that inherent lack of diversification to start with, the fact that I don’t have an illustrious career behind me as a stock-picker (I was hammered in the dot-com bust), and that the whole thing is a somewhat mapless territory. I really liked the investment trust route, and hopefully NAV premiums will go away.

    However, I have to deal with the world as it is rather than how I’d like it to be, so some study of the theory behind a High Yield Portfolio is in order. I fully expect the double dip recession to return at some time in the coming year, which is good for share buyers though toxic for the value of a HYP. It may not be as toxic for the income from the HYP, however, it would be nice to see an analysis of that…

    Real Estate Investment Trusts

    If diversification were my aim, one class of investment I have no exposure to is commercial property. I hate anything with the mention of property in it as an investment – I sold the first house I bought at a 40% nominal, probably >50% real loss. Property is a dirty word all round for me. Let’s look at what commercial property is (the REIT I am considering is BLND)

    It’s retail parks, warehouses and a lot of office space in London. Well retailers are going to do really well in the coming year aren’t they, what with VAT up, taxes up, Internet shopping up, punters squeezed on all counts. They’ll take an occupancy pasting in 2011. Office space in London, conversely, I feel okay about. The bankers will moan about relocating the top brass to Zug but they’ll still employ grunts in London.

    Then we have the financials – unlike anything else I have ever seen. PE way down at 4-ish (I normally like to see that below 10 but have never seen anything below 5 that isn’t obviously dodgy) dividend cover way up at 5, yield of almost 5% (nice, I like that) and a decent dividend track record though the distribution frequency has changed from 2x a year to 4x.

    There’s much to be said for buying something that the market hates, and that PE screams that the market hates BLND (and its stable-mate Land Securities which have very similar metrics) with a vengeance. I haven’t yet discovered why. Obviously the prognosis for commercial property isn’t that great, but it looks like these guys can eat a serious drop in rent income and still keep the lights on. And I do like that yield, so I am tempted.

    I need another high-yield share around now and AZN comes to mind, yield about 4.5, PE about 10 and dividend cover of more than 2. And a very respectable dividend growth history. I already hold some of them as 3% of MRCH, the obvious competitor GSK is 7% or MRCH

    All in all this whole HYP is a drag to try and do myself, but I can’t hang around in cash waiting for IT premiums to fall as I can’t call when the second dip will come along. So what I will do is build a HYP over the long term, accepting that I could get hammered by the lack of diversity in the early years, and divert my savings to ITs when they look good value.

    That way the IT approach will give me the security of diversity, but I will still be able to build up my income when Mr Market is offering a poor deal on investment trusts. I don’t see a bull market turning up at any point while I am building my stake, which is when Mr Market offers a poor deal on everything.

    Let’s just take time out to remember what the point of all this is, then

    Sometimes at turning points in the year it is good to lift my eyes from the fog of war, and remind myself why I am doing this. I have already missed the boat according to the criteria here (I have been working for more than 25 years). It is also good to take inspiration from people who have managed to escape the rat race, even if it means living very unconventionally.

    Where are you getting your financial stats from? BLND has a very slim div cover, nothing like 5x.

    Thanks for the heads up – I’ve been using iii, whose BLND page is here

    It’s a REIT, so div cover has to be slim. I’ll be posting a bit on this later today.

    Have you considered RSA Insurance? For the past seven years thay have mostly traded between £1 and £1.50. Currently, they offer about 6.6% yield, although the cover has lessened over the past two years and I would not be surprised if they rebased the divi. Aviva might be worth a look too. Also, I must disclose that I have some of each.

    I had to look up what Aviva did as I’d never heard of them – looks to me like the financial operation formerly known as Norwich Union 🙂

    Financial services is a sector I’m light on, though I guess it will take me a long time to cover all bases. Though I have at least some exposure to this sector via NWBD

    […] lean years like 2007 presumably was, or try and smooth the income; this was part of my desire to use investment trusts to do this but I don’t buy them at a […]

    […] They are illiquid, and hard to analyse. You mustn’t use the same criteria to evaluate them as you would for a stock market investment or a savings account. If you buy a stock, you know how to evaluate its performance – either the total return compared to your outlay, or the income you get from it, depending on whether you target net worth or income. […]

    […] in January, and it’s still January, even if I’m nearly a month late. Last year I was looking for income, and this year I can look back, and conclude that I got it, to the tune of about 4% on the cost of […]

     

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