31 Mar 2011, 6:42pm
peak oil personal finance shares:
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  • A New Financial Year looming, plus the Sound of Thunder in the Distance

    April 6 is the new financial year in the UK for some curious reason, as it seems the fiscal year ends on the more rational March 31. I’ve maxed my ISA for now, so the change of year means I get to have another bash at building tax-free assets that won’t be counted as income in future. It’s also a chance to have a general reshuffle. Every so often I have to get to lift the drains up and hose out the accumulated fat and grease of the finances to see if it accords with my values and beliefs. That’s not the same as getting the right answer, because my crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone else’s. but at least it will be my own mistakes 😉

    I don’t bugger about with formal rebalancing of my ISA, because I’m just not that kind of guy, and also because I am still in full ISA purchase mode what I do this year could shift my asset allocation by about 40%. So I rebalance by going to buy what I don’t already have a lot of. Which probably means mining, pharma, some REITs and some financials, but I have to research this.

    What I need is a jolly good stock market crash this year, so I can buy cheaper. There are distant sounds of thunder – some of the eurozone rumblings and of course all that oil war adventure is probably good for some of this. Some part of me suspects that this distant sound of thunder is the beginning of the end, as Peak Oil starts to overcome industrial civilisation as we have currently set it up. Although I wasn’t economically active in 1973 I was sentient, and we’ve been here before, so I may get my jolly good stock market crash this year, possibly on the popular revolution in Saudi Arabia. The challenge, of course, will be whether it (the stock market, rather than Saudi…) gets up off its knees afterwards as it did then. An awful lot of companies’ business cases would look a lot different with oil at $250 a barrel, and not many of them would look better.

    I wasn’t used to how National Savings Index linked certificates worked last year. In particular I didn’t realise that these were desert blooms, only available for a short time after the Spring rains. My plan was to buy £500 of these each month to give me a steady index-linked income boost in three year’s time (now two years). That doesn’t fit with the seasonal availability, so I only got £2000 into that before they were summarily canned. Which sort of put the kibosh on that bright idea 🙁

    However, NS&I may still serve me well. I have an emergency fund of about £7500 in a two year’s back to back Nat West Cash ISA, which, all credit to them,  has actually continued to provide a3%-ish interest rate. Now on reflection, there is a lot to be said for shifting this to NS&I certificates, because you can

    • get the money out at short notice, although at an interest penalty
    • but it’s a little bit of bother, so you have to think about it
    • and thr RPI indexing means an emergency fund of £10k today will be able to fix the same amount of emergency in five years hence
    • oh yes, and did I say it’s tax-free, so what the heck is the point of sterilising some of my ISA allowance looking after cash?

    Which beats the cash ISA option, which dies a little bit by about 2% a year. There’s also an opportunity here – I believe I can transfer the Cash ISA into my shares ISA ands still load up with this year’s ISA allowance, ie I could get £17700 into my shares ISA earning an income for me rather than £10200 into it this year. Of course the downside of that is I have to save the £7500 to go into NS&I in the next month, plus save up £10200 over this next year plus increase my pre-tax savings in AVCs to keep that greedy tyke Osborne out of my pay packet.

    That’s a very serious big ask and I may not make it, though my outgoings and non-financial investment costs have dropped. But it’s a potential opportunity.

    As to the asset allocation, for myISA I have shifted it to this

    March 11 ISA asset allocation

    which, compared with December has changed to more accurately reflect my views on what an ISA should do for me. Which is buy me an income that isn’t considered an income for tax purposes. I’ve dropped all holdings of precious metals in my ISA because I have come to the conclusion that an ISA is not the place for precious metals. This isn’t because I have decided holding precious metals isn’t for me, I simply need to get my policy on that right, so at the moment I am exposed to currency debasement big time, apart from my non-financial investments.

    Overall financial asset allocation

    Overall my total share allocation including pension AVCs and stuff outside my ISA is more balanced. The obvious holes as mining stocks, AsiaPac and the US, all of which confuse me.

    The US is home to an enterepreneurial bunch of go-getting people who aren’t known for taking no as an answer, and I am sure this will work to their advantage in future. However, they have some deep systemic problems arising from being a reserve currency, which has permitted some extreme excesses which are denied everyone else. I’d prefer not to be caught in the crossfire of unwinding those debts. The US is also hellishly exposed to Peak Oil, in a way which is so much more extreme than anywhere else.I can imagine a Europe without liquid transport fuels. I struggle to imagine a US without gasoline, with perhaps the exception of New York and some of the East Coast. And the low taxation of oil makes the US economy far more sensitive to increasing crude oil costs.

    I am sure Americans may be resourceful enough to sort it, but they really do have to get off their butts and engage, simply repeating that “the American Way of Life is Not Negotiable” is not what I would consider a rational response. I am not sure that the military option is such a great answer either. There seems to be some doubt about whether it increased oil production in Iraq  some say yes, but it is not a universally held view. So at the moment I don’t do America, other than as part of my FTSE100 holdings.

    Mining, yes, shame that is riding high at the moment 🙁 A missed opportunity from last year.

    AsiaPac – with the current state of the pound that all looks jolly expensive. I don’t do China, because I don’t understand it, and the demographics suck. I could combine mining with an Aussie tracker ETF, since mining seems to be a lot of what Australia is about.

    I am tempted by India, which has strong demographics and a go-getting entrepreneurial class, though some very serious strategic problems. It is hard to gauge performance where the currency has such a shocking inflation rate of around 10%. db-xtrackers do a GPB denominated ETF but this is a synthetic tracker using derivatives and swaps, which introduces a lot of hidden extra counterparty risks.

    Fortunately there’s no great hurry, apart from targeting that NS&I investment in April, and I have a war chest saved which can sort that for me, I will hit NS&I up to aim to hold a total RPI-indexed emergency fund of about 10k, so I can think about how to tackle the ISA over time.

     
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