3 Mar 2016, 8:23pm
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  • the great sucking sound of retail investors heading for the hills

    We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.
    Some well-known investing chap you may have heard of
    The big problem, of course, is that it’s hard to do. We all have to do the old run for the hills thing some time, and I’ve BTDT – more than ten years ago. The mistake is doing it a second time. Either get out and stay out, or if you do get in again then listen to what Mr Market is telling you about yourself. There’s nothing wrong with paying for learning, well, as long as it doesn’t wipe you out for a decade like houses can, but that’s a different story. Shares are safer and more dangerous at the same time. The trouble with houses is you borrow money to buy them, which means you make out like bandits when things go up, which is most of the time. Get that wrong and you get shellacked big time. But shares, well, you shouldn’t be borrowing money to buy shares. 1
    The trouble with the stock market and the retail investor like you and I, is that we get massively interested in the stock market when there’s recent proof that people have made loads of money from shares. So we buy. Then, when things go pear-shaped, we head for the hills, and exactly that has been happening. To the tune of 450million sods, indeed. Some of us sell, then go rinse, repeat.
    Laith Kalaf of Hargeaves Lansdown put it well
    “There is no shortage of bad news now, but, if you invest when everything is smelling of roses, the chances are you are paying a premium for the comfort of doing so,”
    Quite. I’ve been grizzling about too much smelling of roses, so I spent a fair amount of last year buying gold. Unlike some of HL’s investors I didn’t sell shares to buy gold, I simply couldn’t think of much of fair value, after dabbling in some EMs. This year has been more interesting, with a hit on the FTSE100 and a hit in my second ISA (which is more suited to funds) on a Global ex-UK fund approved of by The Accumulator no less, though I found it independently when looking to repeat what I used to do in my pension AVC fund – invest in a 50:50 Global:FTSE100 fund. I can’t buy that in an ISA, so a mix of VUKE and the L&G International ExUK will have to do. The original plan was to track these, buying 1k of one in one ISA and 1k in the other, but I will probably focus on the L&G fund, because I have more money as cash in that account – a straight transfer of a Cash ISA I had from 2009 as part of an emergency fund I need much less of now, as I will start getting a pension income as of next tax year.
    The L&G fund

    The L&G fund

    The heft at the end of this chart is not so much that the stock market has decided to go gangbusters. No. That, dear fellow UK reader, is the great sucking sound of the pound falling relative to everything else. It makes sense to shovel as much money out of the country or into hard assets as possible, and preferably by last month. It was some of the rationale behind the gold buying last year, but now that Mr Market has taken a bit of a swoon, productive foreign assets are also of interest. The UK stock market is looking less bad than it should do at the moment because though denominated in pounds it also contains a fair amount of foreign assets, though all that mining and oil is probably still tracking down in price measured against foreign dev world currencies.

    Braver souls than I trade forex. The trouble with that is it’s still holding cash, it’s sort of like holding gold, and the trouble with owning an asset like that that is not only do you have transaction and holding costs, but when the hell do you decide to sell and buy rotten-looking assets? It’s the old retail investor dilemma again, you have to make yourself do it.

    So I take heart with that sucking sound of retail investors beating it. It means it’s time to keep on buying and ramp up 🙂

    Now I happen to be in trouble now on that front, because there’s another investment opportunity for me, which is a cash investment, into the SIPP holding my AVCs. I will toss my entire earnings for this year into that, to maximise my tax-free PCLS (if we still have one after the Budget). Ideally after March 16th’s budget, because I am hoping for a flat-rate 25% tax bung replacing the existing 20%. I will therefore flatten myself into this, because I have coasted for three and a half years on savings and these are almost all out. I don’t want to spring cash from my ISA because now is the time to invest, and I don’t want to liquidate my NS&I ILSCs because you can’t reload them and no other cash-like savings beats inflation these days without fiddling about with a zillion accounts, which I can’t be bothered to do.

    So I will borrow money on credit cards at 2% p.a. to invest in bigging up my PCLS. Because I can eat paying 2% if there’s a 20% tax-free bung in it. Although I am looking forward to getting a hold of my pension savings in the new tax year, because I don’t like carrying debt. So I will be adding to the statistics of Britain as a nation of spendthrifts going bananas on their credit cards.


    source: tradingeconomics.com

    However, unlike my fellow-countrymen who are spending this on consumer goods and holidays in the sun, I will be buying cold, hard, cash with this – not at the usual rate of -2% but at +18%. I think Mr Micawber would let me off. As for the others rushing for the exits – if you can’t buy in, at least sit on your hands FFS, guys!

    Notes:

    1. I am actually considering doing exactly that, so this is definitely a do as I say not do as I do, but I have some good reason. Don’t they all say that, eh?
    10 Feb 2016, 11:37am
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  • Markets are squiffy again. Pound is also slip-sliding away in the background

    After a bit of cheer I was starting to wonder if the buying opportunity last month was a flash in the pan, but no, general squiffiness means an Ermine sticks a paw into the back pocket and buys another lump of VUKE in the ISA. I aim to do that once a month, to average into the unknown future shape of this bear market. I like to do it on days when the headlines are saying things like Shares dive as fears mount for health of global banking although this morning also looks good with Stock market rout intensifies amid fears central banks are ‘out of ammunition’. In moods of general jitteriness I’m not aiming to be smart, but I am aiming to be out there, buying something. There’s just so much out getting better value, and the £1k a month limit acts as a brake to spread myself out in a measured fashion rather than do the kid in a sweet shop grab all in one go scenario.

    Investment Trust discounts seem to be showing up too. I don’t buy ITs at a premium, and the premium/discount mechanism seems to amplify market sentiment, free money on offer when others are fearful. Last month I pitched for some CTY.L that I was sore about missing out on in 2009 after I read this on should you swap your shares for an IT on a discount. At the time I didn’t have any shares but the sound of the discount was nice, so I bought MRCH, then focused on building up a cash ISA firewall against getting canned and shoved money with both hands into AVCs, using a Global:FTSE100 50:50 fund which was one of the three choices available.

    Now that AVC move was good, because the Global part hedged me well against a 25% fall in the pound that also occurred, so it impressed upon me that one of the side functions of shareholdings is to hedge against governments torching the value of the currency, by say printing shitloads of it… That is the trouble with money, it is a relative scale, and it moves around all the time

    Going down - value of the pound in US dollars

    Going down – value of the pound in US dollars

    So although I am not particularly discriminating in terms of buying at the moment, if I had access to that L&G fund I’d probably use that

    1602_lg-ukx

    which performed thusly relative to the FTSE100. Sadly iii doesn’t go back far enough to show the deep joy that buying this from before March 2009 onwards was, I liquidated in March 2012 and stayed in cash, so obviously I kissed goodbye to another 30% lift in this AVC fund. However, I believed at the time that I would have to call on this very soon after leaving work. As it was this wasn’t true, but I will call on that money this year. You shouldn’t have money in the stock market you will need to use in the next five years, I’m easy with walking away from the 30% uplift. It’s not like I didn’t get any uplift in my ISA between 2012 and now, one should always leave a little behind in the markets for the other guy, otherwise you get greedy 😉

    I don’t think I can buy that fund outside a pension, perhaps even outside the Firm’s AVC scheme which I am out of now. There is a L&G fund BKF0  (ISIN GB00B2Q6HW61) which sort of does the International ex-UK half of that, and this will go up roughly by the fall of the pound, times of course the performance of the underlying assets. 57% North America equities, oy vey, I haven’t wanted to buy into the overpriced US market for the last few years, although I did in a Dev World ex-UK fund I held unwrapped. And very nicely that overheated market did for me. I can’t sell that unwrapped fund because I am up against the CGT limit for this year, but in April, assuming it’s still worth ‘owt I may do that, shove the wedge into my new Charles Stanley ISA and buy some of this L&G international, to get out of the pound and lean against the UK bias of my TD ISA which holds my HYP, which is largely big UK based fish.

    I also have two Cash ISA contributions from years back transferred into Charles Stanley. So maybe it’s time to start getting out of the pound. It has a nice 8% loss YTD, when I’m buying something generic like that I do like to see the previous owners losing money, because it means I don’t pay that on buying it. With individual shares you can go wrong with that principle, but it’s safer with broad index funds. I went with Charles Stanley because I am trying to break up my ISA holdings because of the government guarantee and in the interests of diversifying against platform counterparty risk, although this means I will have several accounts, which is always a pain to manage as an integrated whole. TD are very cheap to hold shares on, no annual fees on the account or for shares, Charles Stanley are cheap to hold funds with for small total amounts, and I will try and stay below £50,000 on there. So I will do funds on Charles Stanley, ETFs and shares on TD.

    Other ways of hedging the pound

    I bought a lot of gold last year in my ISA, because I couldn’t really bring myself to buy the in my view overpriced UK stock market or the US. Of course the cheap EMs that I bought in 2015 got cheaper but that’s life 😉  That gold seems to be reacting to the fall in the pound by going up a fair way. I don’t really feel terribly good about having 10% of the ISA in gold, but it’s working for me at the moment. It is, of course, possible to hedge the pound using spread-betting and FX, but that is a harsh mistress full of tiny changes in points bought/shorted making humdingers of changes in the total amount at risk, and these vary shockingly day to day. What I’d really like to do is buy SDRs from the IMF because what I really want to do is hedge the pound against a bunch of currencies, but I guess the Ermine economy is too small by a few squillion pounds to get a seat at the IMF. An ISA letting me hold the cash part in SDRs would be nice 😉

    Simulating SDRs by averaging forex holdings is tough, there are high carrying costs with spreadbetting FX. Well, paying anything to carry cash is bad news, because it is generally a wasting asset, not a productive asset. I’m already sore about screwing up and buying PHAU in my TD ISA, although the gold has gone up I failed to spot this is denominated in USD so I ate FX costs buying and no doubt will take the same hit on selling. In fairness the rise in the value of the gold will pay me handsomely for my trouble, but nevertheless it is a drag on performance I missed. Doing anything with FX is just like that, too many people with a hand in the till on every transaction.

    Overall, since I want to be a net buyer into a bear market hedging the pound then buying a global ex UK index denominated in pounds isn’t such a bad way to do it. I shall leave arcane forex shenanigans to the truly wealthy, like people bumping up against the lifetime allowance and the brave, like ERG. I haven’t got brains or balls enough for raw forex. Sometimes you gotta know when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em. Buying foreign productive assets to shovel money out of the UK I can relate to.

    It’s also worth noting that the contents of the FTSE aren’t totally GBP assets, a lot of these big fish make their money outside the UK. Mind you, at the moment making money isn’t something some of these FTSE100  firms are doing in a big way!

    Why is it all going titsup again?

    God knows. If it were just the markets that wouldn’t be so bad, that’s just what markets do, they have regular hissy fits. It’s their job, it is how they transfer capital from the timid to the brave 😉 But other things aren’t right. Moneyweek and the Torygraph say it’s all debt, I don’t think that we took the hit from the first credit crunch enough. In the past we used to take the hit of recessions straight between the eyes – Paul Volcker in the mid 1970s, Thatcher in 1979. The price of those interventions was some very serious economic pain – I had the bad luck to graduate into the very deep recession of 1982 that Thatcher’s medicine invoked, and was unemployed for six months at the start of my career. Since the dotcom bust we just aren’t prepared to take that sort of hit, which seems to smear everything out by driving the crap underground, for it to pop up in unexpected places. The oil price just ain’t right, and we aren’t going to stop using oil in the next 10 years; the exploration  investment that isn’t happening now we are going to rue bitterly in 10 years’ time, although we will hopefully use renewables for a larger proportion of our global energy consumption than currently used.

    Where is the bit that says buy UK residential property, BTL etc?

    I have had the experience of selling a house for nearly half the purchase price and endlessly pissing money into the mortgage for that hole. Every other bastard believes that house prices in the UK only go up, I know that this is not true from personal experience. The Ermine Does. Not. Do. Res. Property. I don’t care how great it is, why it will only go up, and up, and up. Quite frankly, I don’t give a damn. It’s worth owning the roof over my head, and after that it’s enough with the madness of crowds that is British res property. So often you hear punters say the stock market is a casino – well at least the chips are productive assets. Even being a total momentum-chasing asshole in the dot-com boom and bust I lost less money absolutely and proportionally to the capital invested than on housing. 1

    Why do I want to shift out of the pound?

    One word. Brexit…

    There may be a teeny bit of noise and hum associated with that, whichever way the referendum goes. And hell, finally the US stock market which seems to dominate ex-UK funds is getting less overpriced. So the stars are kind of aligning to make this the flavour of the first part of this year for me. Of course, this being the stock market it could all go titsup and the sky may fall and it all turns into endless pouring rain. In which case, well ,what the hell, perhaps let’s take a tip from the guys at Powerswitch and spin this doomer anthem from the last financial crash.

     

    Notes:

    1. because I have been in it for 28 years overall I am past the breakeven point on housing even taking the hit into account, because of subsequent rises. The stock market has been considerably kinder to me than British residential housing. Plus the trouble with thinking you are rich when your house rises is value is that you have to move out of it to realise that money, and observation shows old people don’t like to do that until they absolutely have to. The people who may benefit from the rise in value are your children when they come back from the crematorium, but you pushing up house prices means they couldn’t afford to buy earlier in their life. Funnily enough it’s always people with kids who go on about how great it is their house increased in value so they can leave it to the fruit of their loins, if I were the kids I’d slap ’em around the chops with a wet fish because that sort of thing is part of the problem, not part of the solution IMO. But British residential property is not my circus, not my monkeys.
    21 Jan 2016, 9:53am
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  • sometimes you just have to hold your nose and do it

    I wrote the first half of this in November last year under the heading “Valuation matters” when I was bored with the stock market, but couldn’t really take it anywhere. Things have improved in the two and a half months since, so I thought I’ll run the post.

    Ermine approach to bear markets

    There are two big problems with bear markets. One is the general noise and hum of people like RBS yelling sell everything. The other problem is that bear markets are usually shorter than bull markets, but steeper. So not only do you have a shorter time to get into the suckers, but it feels bad too.

    past investment performance provides no guide to future performance

    Standard FSA text you read everywhere but probably don’t believe at heart

    I do have a fair lump of money to move out of cash, even while leaving my SIPP as it is. But what to do with a bear market, eh? I will do roughly what worked the last couple of times.

    Valuation matters

    Once upon a time, in the late 1990s, I got more and more interested in the stock market as prices rose, ‘cos I looked at the virtual bottom line and thought that it was real. Whereas now I get more and more lethargic as valuations rise, I cast about and struggle to find anything of interest to buy, and occasionally carp about it. Whereas a decent market crash would interest me again…

    Let’s take a look at the enemy. Total Return values for the FTSE100 are only available back to 2012, but I got my FT All-Share TR from here, apparently derived from the ONS.

    FTAS Total Return, log scale to preserve relative changes. Some big hits and a drop in the rate of increase of TR since the Millennium

    The overall trend is up. And yet this is a game of two halves – whatever happened after the dotcom bust seems to have taken a bite out of the annual rise of the FT all-share total return, and given us bigger and more protracted retrenchments. Perhaps the change in annual rise is because inflation was generally lower in the second half period, but there’s no way of getting away from the fact that the retrenchments in TR are deeper and span longer periods. There’s real money to be lost here for significant periods of time.

    Whether this is the result of structural changes to the economy, or perhaps the massed ranks of index investors beginning to kill the golden goose is something I am not clever enough to say. Perhaps it’s as simple as the increased financialisation of the economy, in the end somebody has to be paying for all those salaries in London. FirevLondon put it well

    Financial services is, er, where the money is. Pay levels here significantly exceed almost all other sectors when you benchmark for responsibility, experience, lifestyle, etc.  The point is that these jobs are not easy to get and are not everybody’s cup of tea.

    Just like people working in sweet shops don’t want for sweets, I guess people working in money don’t want for money. The kink in the chart may be as simple as the fact that these pay levels as well as soaring CEO pay have to be looted from the real economy because financialisation is an extractive rather than productive business, looks like shareholders have been getting a bum deal for the last 16 years as well as being shaken down twice. Or is that three times, including now 😉 Whatever it is due to, there’s a good case to support the thesis that it’s all different now, but the trouble is that it isn’t all better now.

    If we are going to be carrying the deadweight load of all these spivs and CEO salaries on our backs, we really want to be buying in the suckouts, since the cost of the future income stream is cheaper, cos, well, the price of entry is on sale.

    People made a lot about the last bull market being one of the longest on record, which is all fine and dandy, but if the price of longer bull runs is greater humdingers of bear markets that knock you back the odd decade then it still isn’t great news for steady buy and hold. The view post 2000 on the FTAS total return hasn’t been worth the climb compared to the 20 years before it. The slightly lower slope could be explained by lower inflation, but the multi-year suckouts are longer and deeper.

    My aim is to long-term hold, and use the dividend income. So I am buying a future income stream, and I want prices to be low when I buy. They haven’t been low for the last few years, that’s the trouble with bull markets, they hang around too long and outstay their welcome, particularly that last one. I’m glad to see the back of it. All it’s been good for the last couple of years is to shift unwrapped assets into an ISA wrapper, rather than put much new money into the markets.

    Buying into bearishness with index funds

    I have stood next to the open goal of bear markets before, tapping a bit of wedge into it at the same time as buying that Cash ISA, That Cash ISA is still the same one as I bought in March and April 2009, when I also bought the other half as a S&S ISA in April and started hitting AVCs. Cash has lost value in real terms whereas the S&S ISA and the SIPP paid me handsomely.

    There are similarities to 2008 in that the stock market and the pound are tanking. The combination of these gave both my AVC funds and my ISA a good heft. This bear ain’t really got into it’s stride IMO, which is just as well for me. I have about 3k worth of ISA allowance left plus about two grand of cash in there. This year in an aberration of common sense I adopted the nice little quarterly regular drip-feeding approach of a good index investor, largely because I couldn’t really get excited about much, but figured I can’t just sit on cash. So for the last two quarters I’ve been buying gold, and in the first quarter I did some racy stuff like buy into Russia, EMs and oil, all of which have tanked faster than the unwrapped assets I sold. I’m taking the Zombie approach to the busted value of the last enterprise, at least the gold is up a smidgen.

    However, in a decent general bear market, you don’t actually have to be clever at what you buy. What you have to do is be buying. There’s a hell of a lot to be said for indexing into a bear market. You can sort out the asset allocation later when the rubble has stopped bouncing.

    What does a bear market look like, and how do you know one?

    A bear market is a fall back of 20% against recent highs, apparently. How do you know one – I spent too much time a while ago trying to formulate a black box determination of a bear market from the price signal. A bear market is not just about the price. It is also about how people feel. You know a bear market from the number of pundits screaming that everything is doomed – indeed I’d go as far as to say a bear market is much more about how people feel about the market that the price signal the market is giving, it’s the sizzle, not the steak.

    The trouble is that the depth and duration of the retrenchment is unknowable at the start. Is this like 2008/9? Is it like the dotcom bust? The 1930’s? Is it the final denouement of capitalism culminating in a war of all against all, or maybe a modest wobble like 2011?

    This unknowability means I don’t want to be buying all in one go, a good bear market happens across a year or more, the 2011 wobble was a few months ISTR, but the trouble is you can’t know where the bottom is. So I want to be getting in steadily over a few months, perhaps a year. The five grand for the ISA is easy enough to do, buy £1000 of VUKE and do it again over the next few of months. VUKE because it’s the FTSE100 that’s getting much of the stick at the moment. As well as that I have about 8k left in a cash ISA, which I can now deploy into the stock market. Unfortunately, having tried with Charles Stanley, it appears that I can’t actually open a S&S ISA by transferring in a seven-year old cash ISA without opening a new ISA for this year, which I can’t do 1. I could, of course, transfer the cash ISA into my TD Direct ISA which I already contributed to this year, but I don’t want that any bigger, I need another two S&S ISAs to bring the value of my shares ISA down to the FSCS compensation levels. This gets more relevant in times of market turmoil, MF Global is the poster child for what can go wrong here…

    So I guess I am stuffed until April on moving that cash ISA, which probably isn’t so bad. If this is a big one, the bear market will be just getting its boots on by then, I should imagine we will still all be thinking it’s financial Armageddon. In time for the new ISA year 😉  I am pretty sure that buying VUKE now will look like a terrible idea by then. As will buying it in February. And March, May and June. But I can’t know, and that’s why sometimes you have to hold your nose and buy into bear markets anyway. It’s a dirty job, but somebody has to do it. I can’t call the bottom of a bear market. But I don’t have to, all I need is get in while the sale is still on.

    It’s a lot more interesting than steadily socking away a few hundred pounds a month into an index fund in a bull market, even if the interesting is the same sort of interesting as living in interesting times. It’s the drama of bear markets that I like, well, and the fact that valuations get so much better. Despite everybody saying valuation doesn’t matter and you can’t time markets etc I can recognise a hissy fit when I see it. 2009 was good. 2011 had its moments. Perhaps 2016 will be up there as well. Of course, it is entirely possible that that kink in the long run TR of the FTSE100 is indicative of a deeper malaise – after all the suckouts seem to be deeper than they used to be and getting deeper, and despite the great celebrations when the FTSE100 crawled above the peak sixteen years ago it still seems to be walking wounded. I’m happier buying it at 5700 2 than 7000-something, although I am sure it will test 4500 sometime this year. I wonder if this will also be the year the Greeks default just to double down 😉 Let’s hear it from iii’s Rebecca O’Keefe

    With every upturn being followed by deeper falls, investors are increasingly wary as it becomes more and more difficult to determine what might happen next.

    We know the rough outline what’s going to happen next. Shit is going to go down, and keep going down. Until it doesn’t go down any more. The dotcom bust went down for three years straight, most of the other bear markets were two years or less. You shouldn’t have money in markets you will need in the next five years, so it’s likely you’ll be at least a year or two into the bull that follows the bear before the five years is up. Buy, not all in one go, and forget about it for five years. If the suckout lasts longer, well, you got different problems, bud.

    If there is a deeper problem of returns then the value of some numbers on my TD Direct/CS screens which would be visible on the internet if we had any power and broadband while the zombies fight in the streets aren’t going to be a big problem for me, compared to the marauding zombies and preppers like some Cormac McCarthy novel. But if that doesn’t happen then we will still be using oil in ten years time and I’ll wager we’ll be paying more than $30 a barrel for it. People will probably still be buying things made out of stuff that somebody is going to have to dig out of the ground. We probably won’t have given up eating and Facetweeting. I can’t be bothered to try and work out who will be providing this. That is the nice thing about bear markets. They are absolutely made for the mindlessness of index investing, because a synchronised gloom grips people and they flog everything off cheap. You don’t have to be smart about what you’re buying. Just buy something reasonably diversified.

    I’m not a fan of steady index investing across time. But I am a fan of indexing into market swoons, and then sitting on the spoils of war. Later on I will buy some individual shares/ITs once I feel there is an upturn, which of course will only be detected after the event. But on the way in, it needs to be like a slow-motion supermarket sweep contest, repeated regularly and paced out over months.

    It’s never a good feeling to buy into something that’s tanking. And to do it month after month. I know what that felt like in 2009. But compared to the feeling when you look back afterwards, well, that isn’t so bad.

    Pound cost averaging into a bear market isn’t smart and its not clever. But it’ll work, I’m happy to take the punt because I’ve been here before. Which is why I started buying yesterday.

     

    Notes:

    1. I have since asked them, and they have given me explicit dispensation for that
    2. that should probably be 5200 by the time I post this
    25 Aug 2015, 10:04am
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  • This correction ain’t all that much yet…

    be careful what you wish for. You may just get it

    1508_2266

    The Grauniad sets us right: On the sea of red v sea of green debate, the answer is, of course, that red is an auspicious colour in Chinese culture, indicating wealth. Thanks to Tom Phillips, our man in Beijing.

    All around there are headlines of market corrections and doom and mayhem, plus the curious fact that the Chinese seem to use green for falling prices

    So an Ermine takes a look and wonders, hmm, is it yet time to pump up the old HYP with a bit of cheap stuff? One of the shares I could use is Unilever, I recall being a bit sore when I read UTMT had got in at about £24 and I was already well behind the curve. So I sat on my hands, there’s always be another day, plus I’m not really that keen on a desultory 3.8% yield… In an HYP it is crucial to get a decent yild when you buy, because one of the corollaries of a HYP peortfolio tends to be that these are established companies, and Slater reminds us that elephants don’t gallop. So you must. not. overpay.

    UTMT has described the firm’s strengths and weaknesses well, notable is a fair sized exposure to emerging markets, and investors really hate anything to do with EMs right now, and so the company should be down the toilet, right?

    UTMT would still have the edge on me

    UTMT would still have the edge on me

    Well, not so fast. Now it could certainly get there, it depends on whether this market rout has got legs. I feel it does, but others don’t, and what do I know. However, it does highlight the need to have a clear target of where to be prepared to buy at. For HYP shares (usually in the FTSE100) I start to get uncomfortable paying more that the long-run market PE of about 15 for the FTSE100 although many of these big brands tend to be high-ish, which is why I hadn’t got in with UTMT. I was spoiled by building a lot of my HYP in 2009 and 2011, there is some hazard that that makes me overcautious buying in normal times, and to totally go on strike in heady times like the last three years.


    memories of this being in on the radio in the lab in the heady dotcom days of 1997, when buying dotcom shares was going to make me my fortune, though work was good enough I had no thoughts of FI/RE

    So I’m all for a market rout, but let’s face it, what I really want, what I really really want, is a bear market – 20% off recent highs at least, and half of that fall is to get to fair value IMO. And so far, sadly, none of the trigger values for stocks I actually want to buy has been reached, despite all the excitement. There are, of course, areas of temptation. I really want to buy JII, but it’s just not really there yet. So far, this seems to be a rout, not a market capitulation, and the starting point had been from outrageously lofty levels. We’re back to late 2012 on the FTSE100. I want the Summer of 2011…

    So in the absence of anything really worth buying I’m drip-feeding into my existing holding of Vanguard Lifestrategy 100. Not because it’s terribly exciting, and the price is only back down to what it was at the beginning of this year, but because the cost structure of funds on TD are made for drip-feeding. I’d hate to look back if this turns out to be short lived and to have done nothing in the swoon. That’s the trouble with trying to use downturns – the hardest part is actually buying in the fog of war…

    21 Aug 2015, 4:40pm
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  • A distant sound of thunder

    Ah, the lazy hot days of summers are conducive to all sorts of rumblings – here in East Anglia there is a strong predilection to thunderstorms. But there’s another sound of rumbling in the distance, and that’s the sound of distant promise in the markets…

    thunder and lightning, very very frightening...

    thunder and lightning, very very frightening…

    You start getting people talking about global plunges (though bear in mind it’s silly season and news is thin, so this may still not stick yet) and running pictures like this –

    1508_tradersand the ermine feels the slightest waft of a breeze across the whiskers, and the snout twitches to point in the direction of the interesting scent of fear… I have been bored shitless by the markets these last couple of years, I’ve made some desultory purchases like HRUB and a bit of EM stuff, but they didn’t really feel right (and weren’t right) but not enough of them to make any big hit, indeed the time may come to add to these. Most of the time I’ve been selling my own stuff back to myself to get it wrapped in an ISA – that sort of tedious business is what markets hitting new highs are for. But these new straws in the wind seem to indicate things could start to get interesting again…

    When I left work in 2012, I transferred my entire AVC fund into cash, because I did not know when I would have drawn down the cash I had saved, and would need to draw my pension early. At the same time I would have needed to invest this AVC fund, saved specifically to compensate me for the loss of taking it early. It looked like the market was on a high at the time, which turned out to be patently not true.

    I only have the choice of these two finds in my AVCs and cash

    I only have the choice of these two finds in my AVCs and cash (the FTSE100 isn’t as bad as it looks since I would get dividend income). The blue one already served me very well 2009-2012

    Okay, so I sold out at a local high in March 2012, but it then proceeded to make half as much again. I can be sanguine about that because there’s a lot more than this in my ISA, the overall value of which has tracked up by more than the blue line 1  Obviously had I a decent crystal ball I’d have held on and sold three years later, but I don’t regret this, because I have learned one thing about shares, and that is

    be no forced seller

    The rough rule of thumb here is that money you will need to call on within the next five years has no business being in the stock market. I did not know in 2012 what the future held. At the time, before Osborne’s changes, I believed I would need to draw my main pension and spring this cash tax-free, possibly to backfill any money I’d had to borrow in the meantime, alternatively to invest it. So cash it was, I accepted the 8% loss to inflation over that period. The insurance of cash against market turmoil has a cost, life is like that. If you’re a forced seller caught on the hop, you could get to eat a 50% loss and have to make a 100% gain to be back where you started. You really don’t want to do that.

    But now I will get a lump of this tax-free and have a steady strategy to pull out a personal allowance-worth each year. Unfortunately I’ve already contributed 2/3 of this year’s ISA allowance selling my own unwrapped shares back to myself to use this year’s capital gains allowance, but it starts to look like there will be a stronger case to commit new money to the market if there is a decent rumble. I can do that in my SIPP and with the remaining part of the AVCs – these in particular I know I won’t touch for another five years. I would have been windy of committing them to the markets in the recent highs, but some of that objection is falling away. Five years is a long time in the market – even if I were so unlucky as to buy the FTSE100 at the peak before the financial crisis (6730 on Oct 12 2007) I would be at 6487 five years later (and would have received five years worth of dividends). The odds improve no end in market swoons, and this one starting seems to be a general worldwide across the board throwing in of the towel, so something nice and boring like VWRL seems to be worth buying into in moderate monthly amounts across the next six months with the rest of my ISA allowance.

    Extracting the AVC money seems to grind like the mills of God, exceedingly slow, but hopefully the market won”t have recovered by the time I get a definitive answer as to whether I can transfer part of it as opposed to the whole lot. If part I can shift the residual AVC fund into that L&G 50:50 global index because I know I won’t be needing that for 5 years, if not then I will do something with VWRL in my HL SIPP. It looks like the markets are set to get a bit kinder to me, and all the other net buyers out there. Now that I know my time horizons I can use the information to allocate more money to the markets.

    So I raise a glass of summer wine to fear and loathing in world stock markets. Of course, it could be the final surrender as capitalism gives up the fight in the face of shocking government debt, Chinese overhangs and falling productivity. Or it could be the second shoe dropping of the financial crisis – all the stuff desperately batted into the air by governments who didn’t want to face the facts. But in that case we’re all stuffed anyway, que sera sera.

    Notes:

    1. note that this is not because I am an ace investor, the share uplift has indeed been most decent when I unitise, because over the last few years it didn’t matter what you owned, you were going to do relatively well. But of course over those three years I have contributed three years of ISA allowance too.
    17 Jul 2015, 10:21pm
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  • Windfall for tourists as Carney trails interest rate rise

    The Grauniad tells us it’s a good time to be a British tourist, all thanks to that Carney chap trailing an interest rate rise. I can’t help feeling that empty promises of  rising interest rates are just like a lasting solution to the Greek predicament, this is a movie that we’ve seen before and will see again – announcement of interest rate rise only to welch on the deal when push comes to shove. But a lot of people seem to buy it. Or perhaps they’re pissed off with the Grexit shenaigans. Either way, we’re back in 2007 again in relative terms to the Euro, though we are all still flat on our financial backs with stars going round in front of our eyes. And that’s before you even think of Greece.

    1507_eurogbpNow an Ermine could take the opportunity to hit Eurotunnel, duel with the myriad desperados and striking Frenchmen, and join the massed ranks of British wage slaves on their annual family two weeks in the sun, or I could think to myself maybe I’ll pass on that. I’ve always avoided school holidays for travelling anywhere because it’s damned hot and the price goes up and, well l’enfer c’est les autres avec leur fractious rugrats on public transport in the heat of summer. After 30 years of avoiding this sort of fun I’m not about to start now.

    Nevertheless, perhaps I could take some of my ISA for a summer holiday. Last year I was a forced seller and sold IDJV 1 for about £16 because it had fallen to what I had paid for it. It was unwrapped, I’d already maxed my CGT allowance so I couldn’t sell any of the rest of my holdings at a profit even though I needed the cash, hence I had to borrow some. Now it’s still a bit higher than that at £16.91, so I’ve told TD to let me know if it falls to a bit below what I sold at, because then I can effectively bed and ISA this over six months.

    All sorts of other foreign stuff will get cheaper. Now the other side of the coin is that all the foreign stuff that I already own will go down the toilet a bit. As it is this isn’t a hugge issue for me as I am hopelessly unbalanced worldwide

    Ermine total equity distribution

    Ermine total equity distribution

    because my HYP is the largest lump and it’s UK biased. Index True Believers would sell off half of that and pump up that devxUK and EM. I’m okay with buying EM and have done some of that already, and it bleeds now of course 😉 I’m not touching the US at current valuations but I would quite like to see some of that IDJV, in my ISA this time thanks very much. I’m not in a great hurry – 1550 would do me well. I should probably knock it off on the EM and lift some bombed out dev world. The problem is that as the ISA gets larger the annual steering wheel of new contributions gets smaller compared to the overall size. Since I don’t sell and I bought a lot of the HYP in the bombed out years of 2009 to 2011 I’m going to have a hard time balancing this out a bit. But a high pound and a low Euro helps…

    So you can keep your sea, sun and sand. I’ll get my summertime kicks on the market, particularly if the Greeks go and scare the horses a bit more. I like hot lazy summers of snarl in the markets.

    Notes:

    1. IDJV is basically Eurozone big fish.
    9 Jul 2015, 10:53am
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  • China doesn’t really seem to get this stock market thing

    While our eyes are focused on the slow train crash that is Grexit, over on the other side of the world there is an interesting example of King Canute seeking to hold back the waves. In China they seem to be of the opinion that their overheated stock market, having gained over 100% in the last year, is supposed to stay there. If you’re one of those capitalist running-dogs that is going against the story looking to sell, well, you can stop what you’re doing right there. Hardened Western investors who went through the dot-com boom might ask themselves what the good reasons were for last year’s 100% heft in a generalised index 1

    from Bloomberg

    Shanghai Composite Index from Bloomberg

    So they stopped people with a 5% or more stake selling, and the government lends money to people to buy shares 🙂 There’s something about the point of this whole stock market thing that is being missed here. The Chinese stock market is also a young market, it seems compared to other world markets there are a lot of retail investors buying shares on margin – what on earth could go wrong? This is classic New York 1929 bucket-shop trading. Maybe in a few decades they will  become sober index fund passive investors, but first they have to get the momentum-chasing speculator out of their systems.

    China’s investing culture remains backward and immature.

    Howard Gold

    Markets elsewhere have been on a roll of a long time, and while Grexit is unlikely to hurt too much outside Greece this one could be the second shoe dropping. There seems to be a lot of ruin in China as it tries to reorient itself from its early 2000s economic model to something that matches the post Lehman-crash world. There’s a lot of ruin in most economies, and it doesn’t necessarily lead to trouble, but by its sheer size China could have big knock-on effects.

    Better to be a dog in a peaceful time, than to be a man in a chaotic period 2

    There haven’t been tremendous buying opportunities in the markets for two or three years now. But interesting times lead to interesting opportunities. There’s still too much zombie puffery inflated by easy money after the 2007 crisis. Emerging markets are probably where it’s at in 20 years’ time, and perhaps we will have more opportunities to pick ’em up cheap in the next few years if this sucker goes down. Of course, associated with that will be all sorts of other misery. I’m not doing a Dubya and saying ‘bring ’em on‘. China has big challenges ahead with the whole get rich before getting old thing, and I personally have avoided investing in it 3 because I have no feel at all for the country – my preferences in emerging markets lean towards India, Latin America and Africa from a demographic point of view. Howard Gold is quite right to describe EMs as having gone down the toilet, but I’ll be surprised if they stay there for the ten years he is calling out. I don’t have enough EM exposure, because in the years after 2009 I was building a HYP. And I don’t want to be a dog…

    Notes:

    1. this question being, of course, the one they failed to ask themselves in 1999 – ain’t experience and hindsight a wonderful thing?
    2. May you live in interesting times is a good line, but not Chinese, so it’s not right to to use it for China 😉
    3. other than in generalised index funds
    25 Feb 2015, 6:11pm
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  • others are greedy and the Ermine is fearful

    You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy.

    Warren Buffett

    Much brouhaha about the FTSE 100 at last closing above the level of its 15-year old dotcom high in December 1999. The rational investor will tap a copy of his efficient market hypothesis, sigh and wonder what all the fuss is about. Trouble is the market isn’t efficient, it’s all about the madness of crowds in the short term. And it means they’re greedy 1. I haven’t worked out what the hell we are doing up here for a couple of years now, and I’m still puzzled. As for the Americans, they’re drunk on it.

    And I can’t help a shiver go down the spine, because unlike whippersnappers like this, I was there in the early days of the Web, with an ESI account (eventually bought out by Charles Schwab and then bought out by Barclays). A group of us late thirty-somethings  dreaming at work – I still remember the welcome note the young Ermine sent out when I set up the internal company share discussion board

    “The aim: to make us rich. Very very rich”

    Asshole. Sorry young Ermine – you were at least circumspect enough to not risk money you couldn’t afford to lose. There was a heady and peculiar feel about it all. One fellow did do very well in 1999. Which was a bastard when it came to paying the capital gains tax on that lot the next year and his total portfolio was worth less than the CGT bill! Time to remortgage – it’s not meant to be like this… I was a timid Ermine, mucking around with no more than about £10,000 in total so I was spared that sort of slaughtering. £10k cash is worth about £15k nowadays. It was also worth more to me then because it was a larger proportion of my salary than ten years later.

    Looking back at the paper records of that time, the Ermine wasn’t as hammered as much by the dotcom bust as I thought, because I withdrew a lot from my trading account in ’99. I’m not sure why. It felt rough because I knew Mr  CGT cock-up personally – I was awestruck by the total abount of money he was trading but didn’t have the balls. It was a stupendous amount of money  – only fifteen years later have I seen that amount of valuation in an account summary of my own 2. So I knew a few people who got hurt big, whereas I just had the black tip of my tail pulled in comparison.  I’d really like to be able to claim I saw the denouement coming but I probably wanted to go on holiday with DxGF and also to start funding my ISA, which does show the classic dotcom story (I don’t have all the portfolio valuation statements but I put £7100 into this over a couple of ISA years before losing interest)

    The Ermine dotcom ISA - £7000 into about half that over three years

    The Ermine dotcom ISA portfolio valuations – cash in of about £7000 into about half that over three years

    I got good value out of the experience, because I learned what not to do. Do. not. Churn. For God’s sake, just don’t

    bunch of contract notes from two years of my dotcom days

    bunch of contract notes from two years of my dotcom days

    One of the great things about investing in those days is that it was so much more tactile – you got contract notes in the post each time you bought and sold. I filed mine, and spread the suckers from two years out. One of the obvious failure modes of my early investing days is right out there in plain sight – each one of those tickets cost at least £10 I think on the turn. Yes, volatility was shocking in the dotcom tech days and you could cover the cost of churning in the runup to the bust. But to be honest it didn’t really matter what you held then, so why trade all this shit when it notched down and buy something else that was racing up. These days if you want to trade over days and weeks go spreadbetting young man. Better still tune out of the wall of noise and chill. I keep these contract notes as a memento mori. Do. Not. Churn. If you’re not a daytrader then if you aren’t prepared to hold it for six months then don’t damn well buy it, and if you are a daytrader then you are Frankie and The EscapeArtist wants a word in your shell-like.

    On the other hand, like a good little regular index investor, I started investing in a virgin Tracker ISA ( I believe it tracked the FTSE All-share but could have been FTSE100. Had a good-for-the-times TER of 1%)

    Virgin tracker ISA

    Virgin tracker ISA

    I was buying until 2000 (the dotcom ISA took over from then 😉 The pattern is not shockingly different – everybody got hurt in 2000 and may of us quit investing by 2001. From the looks of these charts I guess learning that cost me about £5000. When you look at the cost of numbnuts trying to charge you for sure fire courses on how to be a top trader the cost of attending investing school at the University of Life isn’t so bad. The lessons for me were –

    If you’re gonna stop investing regularly in the stock market, go on strike at times like 1999 or maybe now, don’t go on strike in the bear markets. That’s easy to say but still hard to do. It gets easier to do after you’ve seen it work. It’s one of those gut things.

    Do not churn. If most of your holding periods are less than a year you are a churner 3 A lot of your return is in the waiting.

    Don’t chase momentum. If it all looks high, look for something low. And still check the bastard out – sometimes it’s good to sit tight. Unlike chuck Price you don’t have to get up and dance, and at the paltry levels of interest these days holding cash in a S&S ISA (or even in a Cash ISA, not that that’s really worth the candle either) is a reasonable thing to do. Low inflation/deflation is the cash-holder’s friend. It’s not gonna last

    Note from my index investing career that index investing will still not save you if you are Dumb Money and chase momentum. Index investing is a method, not a solution.

    So what is it about now? Look all around you and the highway is littered to the horizon with cans kicked down the road by politicians eager to make it all go away for another five years. There is stupendous wreckage in the eurozone. The Chinese, Japanese and everyone else seems locked in a deadly embrace to trying to outprint money and make it some other sucker’s fault. Trade has slowed to the extend that we have overcapacity in world mining, commodities of all sorts and the oil price had tanked for  lack of demand due to a lack of economic activity. Warmongering sociopaths from Putin to the vexatious nutcases all over the Middle East are working out their childhood traumas on unfortunate legions of their fellow human beings. Grexit has been postponed, not resolved.

    Apart from that everything is dandy. I know that you shouldn’t be a doomster but that doesn’t mean you have to empty the Kool-Aid in one go. The valuations of the developed world seem mad given the state of the place. Let’s hear it from Citi’s Chuck Prince in 2007

    When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.

    All those damned kicked cans littering the highway, too, piling up and getting under people’s feet and making things more complicated. The ermine is fearful. Not fearful as in 2001, having lost a shitload of money and wanting to sit out the next dance. Fearful as in 2015, trying to work out what the hell to do with the coming years of ISA allowance because all those other blighters seem greedy.

    The market can stay irrational for longer than I can hold out selling my own stuff back to me. I only have another three years of CGT holdings to liquidate, and then I am going to have to start putting real money into my ISA as opposed to selling my unwrapped holdings back to myself, I hope this one’s gonna blow before 2018…

    There’s also a sneaky little corollary to that. If an when it does blow, don’t just load up my ISA. Load up an unwrapped trading account too, to sell back to myself in the Kool-Aid euphoria years like now. What did that fellow Greenspan call it? Irrational exuberance. His countrymen are doing that right now IMO.

    Notes:

    1. well, it also means our govenrments have printed a shitload of money that needs to stick to something I guess, and in the UK housing and equities is as good as any.
    2. I am lucky this is largely in an ISA
    3. There’s nothing inherently wrong with churning though your costs start to rise. But I have learned that I am absolutely crap in that mode. so I don’t do it – I favour being catatonic when investing.
    10 Oct 2014, 12:42pm
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  • The incredible lure of day-trading

    Ah, day trading, the ultimate signal of feel-good in the markets 1. It’s the harbinger of doom, because it is a signal of irrational exuberance. A bunch of day-traders were on the telly a few days ago, hat-tip to Under The Money Tree who flagged up Traders – Millions by the Minute as an object-lesson in what not to do.

    There are two fundamental approaches to trying to make money out of the stock market. One is to regard it a way of purchasing a selection of productive assets, and then becoming a rentier, sitting back and taking a slice of those productive assets without having to do any work. Don’t knock it -that’s the way the super-rich are getting richer. They’re not saving from income, that’s soooo 20th century, dahlink. You need to have inherited wealth or stupendous good luck. The latter is how Russian oligarchs get rich, the former is how Paris Hilton and the Ecclestone daughters got rich. You don’t get to have a pad at the Odeon Tower Monaco if you’re on the side of income no matter how clever you are or how good a footballer.

    Capital, not income will get you here

    Capital, not income will get you here

    Half a billion is doable as income, but you need a turbo-charge from the stock market to keep you there. CEOs and the like have managed to get into this area by getting on the side of the stock market, but they don’t day-trade.

    The second is to regard the stock market as a casino, and to attempt to pick a smidgen of signal from the noise the market throws off. In Traders-Millions by the Minute the punters were taking this line, using spread-betting. The Ermine has indeed had dealings with spread-betting. I’m a fan of it in dealing with sharesave, because you can lock-in profits.  Though I lost money on that side of the trade I achieved my goals. Every year I get on the wrong side of the trade with my house insurance too, and lose money. I am cool with that.

    WTF? The Ermine is a fan of trading and spread-betting?

    Sometimes you have to hold shares for a particular period. Sharesave and Employee Share Incentive Plans are a classic case, particularly the latter. You have to be a special kind of mug to lose money on Sharesave, but on ESIP you can, because you purchase the shares from pre-tax income but have to hold the shares for five years from purchase, else you get to pay the tax and NI you didn’t pay to buy the shares.

    So say you buy 100 shares of Megacorp at £1 a share using £60 of your hard-earned cash post-tax. The £100 only costs you £60 because the taxman doesn’t thieve £40 from your income in this instance. But you have to hold those shares for 5 years. If they go down to 60p at the end of those 5 years you break even, less five years of inflation.

    If you short the number of shares you buy, then you will cancel out any gain or loss on the shares, though it will cost you something to do that. But you do get the benefit of the 66% tax bung. Why 66%? Because you forgo £60, but you get £100. Thus a profit of 40/60 or 2/3 = 66%/ Less three years of inflation, say about £10, so you come down to 50% up.

    I used this towards the end of my time at work with ESIP and Sharesave – to protect myself against significant falls in The Firm’s share price. As it was The Firm’s SP went up, and I got to pay IG about £1000. I was easy with that – it was worth paying to insure myself against losing a lot of what I had gained already.

    Social Trading and Trading Superstars, a new development in the trading universe

    Apparently you can now track some other trader’s trades if you can’t be bothered to do the legwork yourself. It really puzzles me whyit’s not obvious what’s wrong with this. The long-term rise in the stock market is roughly 5% p.a. real 2 , though you have to be invested for long periods of time (about 20 years) for things to settle out like this. It’s one of the reasons why I believe index-investing’s studious ignorance of high CAPE/valuations is am issue. But that’s something for another day. So traders, every day, are exposed to  1/7300th of their stake on average in real stock appreciation if they go long, less the cost of the spread on every turn which applies going long or short.

    Now trading tends to be a short-term activity – that daily gain from the stock market going long isn’t going to speak for much there at 0.01% per day. So you profits as a trader have got to come from somewhere, and it comes from either the punters or the casino your spreadbetting firm. Seen any spreadbetting firms go bust recently? Nope. So it’s coming from the punters. In theory it could come from the markets, because the SB firm presumably hedges any major shifts building up over time, but the programme seemed to indicate most of the profits were from the spreads on the trading, which stays within the system.

    And therein lies the rub. If all the punters start getting ahead, the odds will lengthen. Particularly in spreadbetting, where you are running on a model of the real thing, not the underlying market.

    The trick with day-trading is to quit when you’re ahead

    Over a dreary telephone conference at work way back in 2010/11 an Ermine extracted £400 from IG index on gold, trading per tick, and gave up £350 of it by the end of the meeting. It was sheer luck. Some while later I dabbled in forex trading, using a VAR spreadsheet to control risk. After a few months 3 I looked at the results, observed how much risk it was necessary to pay the fees. I experimented with IG’s automated trading system, where you try and craft a black-box strategy based on the previous charts price history, and back-test it on historical data without using real money.

    I could find no strategy that permitted risk to stay bounded as time passed – everything seemed to trend towards a martingale situation where you can always win – if you have infinite wealth and infinite time. If you have infinite reserves of wealth you don’t need to piss about with spreadbetting, cos you don’t have infinite time. I was never tempted by the breathless folks offering courses and training to learn how to trade xyz because of the natural suspicion – if you can make me rich then why the hell aren’t you in some darkened room making yourself rich, dude? Cut out the middleman. I guess it’s the gonzo version of the active fund charges.

    I was Frankie, although I derived the result in a different way from The Escape Artist, by observation and hypothetical experimentation. So I took my £800 gains plus the £1000 stake, and stopped doing that, because it was the logical thing to do. MMM has a nice post on get rich with science. It’s harsh, but when you see the statistics tell you that this is more luck than judgement you can either ignore the results or take the insight offered. If I want to make money out of a spread-betting firm, I will buy their shares. I did learn from this, however, and applied the knowledge to my investing. Trading costs you money. So I stopped selling, and made it a priority to sit on my backside and take the dividends.

    That, fundamentally, is the trouble with day-trading. In the end you are part of generating the wall of noise – for you to gain, somebody else must lose. This does not necessarily hold with the stock market over the years – because in aggregate returns accrue to capital. But those returns accrue very slowly. To actually get rich from a 5% p.a. real return you need to live frugally and ideally you need to take a multi-generational view. If you have talent and/or cunning, you are much better off leveraging your capital with a business and then selling it.

    How do the rich get rich?

    Take a look at the top 10 of the  Forbes Rich List There are more Mark Zuckerbergs,  Bill Gates et al than there are Warren Buffets. If you look through the top 10, the sources of wealth are typically from running or selling a business, followed by ancestral wealth of some sort. Four are self-made, and six are inherited wealth. Forbes trumpets this as saying the American Dream is hale and hearty. I’m not quite sure I want to imagine what it looks like when it’s poorly – holders of old money outweighing new in the top 10 shows maybe the rags to riches isn’t quite as easy as it’s made out. But it can be done. Something else of note is: no actors/actresses. No musicians. No sportspeople. None of the ways teenagers hope to get rich. Something else of note is that most of these are no spring chickens – it’s the greybeards who have all the money. And they’re not a pretty bunch, eh, indeed some of them probably can’t have intact mirrors in their homes.

    Of those ten, only one  ‘made it on the stock market’. And curiously few in the top 25  ‘made it day-trading’ 😉 Mind you, Sheldon Adelson comes in at #12 from running casinos. There’s nothing wrong with casinos as a way of making money. It’s just that most people go the wrong way about it! Don’t walk through the casino  doors. Own them.

     

    Notes:

    1. I wrote the first draft at the end of September. The feel-good doesn’t quite ring true now – exciting times ahead?
    2. this comes from the BarCap Equity study
    3. I had a similar temperament to the timid trader in the programme, if in doubt I did n’owt. This is apparently not the route to success in this field
    27 May 2014, 5:35pm
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  • Hello Mr Putin, fancy meeting you here?

    It’s not an experience you get that much in the UK with its short distances, but when air travel was dearer, in the 1970s, it was worth travelling by train in Europe. You’d get off the boat at Ostende, and after some interminable shuffling, end up at the railway station, where you had trains that went to different countries, which looked really exciting to a young ermine. Sometimes the train would have a destination of two countries, depending on which end of the train you boarded.

    Unlike air travel, the train stops at many places, and different people would embark and disembark at the waystations. As you approached your destination you’d get a sense of the place you were going to by your fellow-travellers.

    1505_putin

    So in my ISA I found myself waking up next to this fellow with hard gimlet eyes. You get the feeling he’s not a chap who is unused to seeing a dead body that was alive not so long ago. It’s not a friendly face, eh? And you get the feeling the old boy’s known some troubled times. Here’s a fantastic album of Vlad doing all sorts of derring-do –  not bad pecs for a geezer who’s getting on a bit.

    Vlad, a word in your shell-like. If you don't like what's on TV you can switch the darn thing off. Chill, bro'.

    Vlad, a word in your shell-like. If you don’t like what’s on TV you can switch the darn thing off, particularly if you’re Prez, they ain’t gonna stop you. Chill, bro’.

    Exactly why he’s so bothered by the existence of Conchita Wurst is presumably something that’s between Vlad and his shrink, if they indulge is such effete decadence in between all the huntin’ and fishin’.

    However, it’s not so much Vlad himself but Russia in general I’m interested in.

    A lot of people have lost a shitload of money in Russia. It’s a different country – they do things differently there. The term ‘ownership’ and the general rule of law has a more fluid meaning, as the odd oligarch has found out to their cost. Smarter people than me indeed have had Russia cost them dear – the rocket scientists of Long Term Capital Management who believe that risk could be abstractly quanitified discovered to their cost that

    In times of stress, the correlations rise. People in a panic sell stocks — all stocks. Lenders who are under pressure tighten credit to all

    Crikey. No shit, Sherlock? That’s the trouble with being a rocket scientist, you haven’t spent enough time with people to realise that scared humans (or dogs, or wildebeeste, or pretty much any living thing) do not scatter preserving their individual independent calm assessment of the situation. They run like hell. Mostly in the same direction as everyone else. Dunno what the maths of that are, but it buggers up your kurtosis and fattens your tails. And drains your wallet.

    So why do I want some of this? Well, I’m not going to go stockpicking in Russia. But I’ve been toying with the idea of getting some exposure to Vlad’s country despite his sabre-rattling and raising the uncomfortable topic formerly known as ‘living space’ in a previous context. After all, that nice man Tony Blair wasn’t averse to making other people live as he wanted them to live, though it’s still not an attractive characteristic in a world leader. Like it or not, Europe is going to have to cut deals with Russian companies, unless a large part of Europe would like to freeze its rocks off this coming winter. Even if they do, the Chinese might like some too.

    Unlike the traditional view of investing for retirement, where you liquidate on retirement to buy an annuity, I will use the income from my ISA over the coming years, and that terminal horizon is still several decades off possibly. I expect the financial and political power of the West to decline relative to other regions of the world for a range of macro reasons, as well as the Spenglerian thesis that cultures grow old and tired as they become more distant from the shared values that invigorated them. That isn’t to say that I believe Russia will stand towering above the early/mid 21st century like a Colossus. This long-range section of my ISA is small, and it includes a bit of  Asia, a little bit of Africa and now a little bit of Vlad’s domain in the form of HRUB 1 . I can take a long time over buying these areas, because the aim is to hold these for many years. So I try and pay as little as possible. The pound is relatively high at the moment, so it’s probably a year for looking for foreign assets, and Vlad’s been pissing a lot of people off which also seems to scare the horses a bit. The index is a funny old thing, too, being the MCSI Capped Russia index – basically Russia is about Gazprom, energy, oil, Sberbank, energy, more oil, mobile, commodities. And the chart looks fantastic – full of absolutely everything you don’t want in a stock chart – nose-dive-tastic, if this was an aircraft and you’d lost 30% heading for the ground hail Marys wouldn’t really be enough to give you hope.

    Crashing nosedive - all-time low. Time to buy?

    Crashing nosedive – all-time low. Time to buy?

    So I couldn’t resist – a P/E of about 5 and a yield of of a gnat’s under 3% I figured I’d have some of what my old mate Vlad is having. It was the devil’s own job to get data on HRUB – I had to sneak in to HSBC and pretend I was a professional and then look for HRUD and switch currency to GBP. I favoured it over the db-x trackers flavour of the same thing (XMRC) which seems much more popular (or heavily advertised) because that is a derivative with Deutsche Bank as counterparty, whereas HSBC was physical replication.  Physical replication isn’t all it says on the tin, though, because they still lend stuff out, turning physical into synthetic-lite.

    But to be honest, if you’re going to invest in Russia then you’re not of the most nervous disposition, and you gotta be prepared to let it all go. This isn’t a huge part of my ISA 😉

    Actually buying it on TD was no fun either. They swore blind they didn’t have any of it, I have to look up HSBC, page through pages of cruft, click on the HRUB link, upon which they still said they still didn’t do it, but a crafty Ermine observed that they could run a realtime quote 2 and were actually prepared to sell me some. Which they did.

    TD. We don't do this, but since you're a crafty bastard we do.

    TD. We don’t do this, but since you’re a crafty bastard we do.

    Now if a company was on a P/E of 5 and a yield of 3% I’d pass. but most of Russia’s stock market is companies doing real stuff with Real Men digging crap out of the ground. OTOH my mate Vlad could say he owns the lot and the Ermine is unlikely to launch ICBMs to get my stuff back. It’s gonna be a case of back away quietly from the hard man, eyes to the ground and then beat it ASAP. Indexes don’t usually go bust but the Russian stock market does have form on that, I hear 1917  was a pretty rough year on the St Petersburg stock exchange…

    But in the meantime, the Ermine will ride with Vlad, though still looking nervously at those gimlet eyes…

    Notes:

    1. HRUB is the GBP denominated version of HRUD, but it’s easier to find charts for HRUD (dollar flavour) so I’ve used HRUD, so there’s a forex shift
    2. when the market was open, it wasn’t when I went back to get a screenshot of the crappiness of their interface
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