peak oil rant
by ermine
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Obama and Dave, what is it about peak oil that you don’t get?
Apparently Dave and Obama have decided that the price of oil is too high. So guess what? They are going to push down the price of oil. I could have titled this one don’t fight the tape but I’ve already used that for one of Dave’s previous wheezes. What has got into Cameron’s head? Has Samantha bought him a Superman costume or something, first he goes around encouraging people who can’t afford a house to overstretch themselves for a mortgage, and now he’s going to Do Something about the price of oil
So how can we do that? We could:
- increase supply – nope, the IEA says we can’t do that much longer
- reduce demand. Now there’s an idea, but it sits badly with rising global middle class aspirations
Hey, I know what we can do, says Obama. Let’s fudge option 1 and release a load of the US strategic reserves. That way American drivers don’t get pissed off in the Driving Season.
Oh good, says Dave. Tell you what, we’ll help you by releasing some of the UK strategic reserves to help you out, along with out Squeezed Middle. Presumably some Civil Service flack hurriedly whispered in Dave’s ear that the UK doesn’t actually have any strategic oil reserves. Thinking on his feet, he changes it to asking UK oil companies to hold less in reserve.
Great. That’s all sorted then. What part of ‘strategic’ was it that you guys didn’t understand, or should we send in the DEA to find out what you were smoking?
The high oil price is a signal. That signal is telling you that more people want oil than production can currently match, and the price will rise to shed demand until it matches supply. It’s also perhaps showing that the currencies of both the US and the UK have been debased in recent years.
Oh and by the way, guys, you haven’t got enough strategic reserve to deal with the probable war on Iran. They may be mad as a bag of spanners over there but the interruption to production will probably exceed the 40 days capacity of the US Strategic reserve. Just look at what happened next door in Iraq a few years ago.
peak oil: Chris Huhne energy policy irony wind power
by ermine
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The odious energy minister Chris Huhne calling people names again
Students of irony don’t need to pull me up on the reflexive irony in the title
The reason it’s okay for me to call Chris names is because this is my blog and my opinon, and Chris isn’t one of the people whose wishes I represent as a politician. So I get away with being an opinionated twat. Whereas he doesn’t, and gets to take flack for it. Apparently all those NIMBYs who don’t like onshore wind farms need to sort themselves out, an in the immortal words of Nicholas Sarkozy to David Cameron, “you have lost the opportunity to STFU”:
“I want to take aim at the curmudgeons and faultfinders who hold forth on the impossibility of renewables. The climate sceptics and armchair engineers who are selling Britain’s ingenuity short.”
Now our Chris has got previous, as they’d say in the East End of London, after all even his mates counsel discretion before defending him.
I’m not actually a million miles away from Chris – we are going to have shocking problems with energy supply. The big boost of North Sea oil that allowed Thatcher to do her privatisations of the power industry has run out. However, I note that even such armchair engineers and curmudgeons such as David “sustainable energy without the hot air” McKay doesn’t have wind as a major part of most of his future UK wind scenarios, and the one that does, Plan G, is probably best described as ‘rabid Green Party scenario’. David McKay described the rationale as “I call this “plan
G,” because I guess the Green Party don’t want nuclear or coal, though I
think not all Greens would like the rest of the plan. Greenpeace, I know,
love wind, so plan G is dedicated to them too, because it has lots of wind.”
There doesn’t seem to be significant political support for that approach otherwise it would be the Green Party, not the Liberal Democrats who would be in coalition with somebody and the odious Mr Huhne would be out of a job.
McKay also raised several serious technical issues to do with the high peak to mean ratio of having a lot of wind, and unlike most of Huhne’s curmudgeons and the usual wing-nuts he cites the issues, sources, and possible solutions. Oh and he knows what he’s talking about, probably more than our Chris does…
The big PR trouble with wind is that it’s big, it’s tall, it sticks out for miles, and it moves, all of which draw attention, in the “What the heck is THAT doing there” sort of way. It’s got some place in the mix, but what I want the Government to do with it’s power strategy is to have a vision of which, if any, of David McKay’s scenarios it thinks is right for the UK, and make a reasoned case for that on a cost-benefit basis. I don’t currently see that, we seem to have a emotive “we need a load of Wind, now, to be seen to be doing something”.
Wind is a great way to be seen to be doing something precisely because it’s not shy and retiring on the PR front. I know that being seen to be doing something is often considered almost as good as doing it properly, but when you are up against physics you actually have to do it, faking it doesn’t work
It’s possible I’ve missed that analysis, but it doesn’t seem to be promoted much. After all, the UK government isn’t unaware of Peak Oil , with the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas.
So, Chris, can we have less of the name-calling and adverse briefing, and more about what the wind target is, how much of the total mix it is going to represent, and how it will work with all the other future energy sources your department is promoting as well as wind? Even in scenario G it isn’t a one-horse race. Other stuff has to happen too, indeed the Other Stuff is needed to smooth the peak-to-mean ratio of the wind component.
peak oil rant: Chris Huhne energy bils
by ermine
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We need Energy price transparency, don’t just tell us to switch, Dave
Not content to let the odious Chris “need for speed” Huhne to tell the proletariat to switch suppliers, Cameron weighs in on the same theme too.
The trouble with the UK energy market is that the Big Six do their damnedest to make their pricing conditional, obscure and impenetrable, they’ve also put in perverse misincentives to save energy.
Forget switching. You want to know the cheapest way to save on the electricity bill? It would be to join forces with your adjacent contiguous neighbours and have two drop service and share the remaining connection. No I haven’t told you how to implement it because though it’s easy enough to do this sort of information is highly dangerous in the wrong hands. And do bear in mind that adjacent houses are often fed from alternate phases, which might give you concern on maintaining earth integrity with PME installs, among all the other things that could go wrong
The energy companies Ts & Cs usually disallow this sort of thing explicitly, by the way.
The reason this would work is that you are charged a standing charge per connection, either explicitly or obfuscated as a higher cost for the first few hundred units you use. Not only is that ripping you off, it is a major disincentive to reducing energy costs. I get charged a standing charge of over one unit of electricity a day – my usage is about three a day so a quarter of my bill is standing charge.
There are other perversities in the energy market. For no good reason suppliers churn the rates every year, with the aim of shifting their customers onto the expensive standard rate while being able to offer new customers incentives. Combining the two fuels gives them more freedom to hike prices without being too obvious. Sometime they will tell you they have heroically held one fuel price, in which case you can be pretty damn sure the other fuel has been jacked up to compensate. And check the standing charge, or the usage breakpoints, all good places to hide bad news.
I have used EDF for a year. They wrote me they are going to hike charges, so I entered my usage into uswitch, and lo and behold I could save £80 relative to the new cost with a bunch of suppliers. One of which was EDF, surprise. So I rang them up, lost half an hour of my life to get through to switch to the quoted tariff. Punks. It’s like with insurance, every damn year you have to go to something like confused.com just to get the price back to what it was last year.
Sharing services across households would work with broadband service, and Sky (using the second box option, though both have to be connected to the same phone line) which are easier to share with your neighbours
Anyway, back to Mr Need for Speed, who tells use we should switch more. Well, yes, maybe, but perhaps it is the job of Government to regulate so that all providers have to couch their offers in comparable language, and not churn their prices? You have to give an equivalent APR for loans, so how about all firms having to give an equivalent annual cost for electricity and gas for low, average and high usages, as defined by Ofgem?
While we’re on the subject of transparency, Mr Huhne, it is disingenuous to say
No government can control volatile world energy prices
without adding
But the government has decided to add 7% to your bill in green energy taxes
Now green energy may well be a good thing, after all Peak Oil may make that 7% a worthwhile investment. However, blaming the price rises on the devaluation of the pound and world energy prices without acknowledging that a fair amount of the hike was the result of deliberate government policy is disingenuous. Our Chris then goes for the cuddle factor to soften the blow, telling us
We have also increased the electricity bill discounts available for the fuel poor by two-thirds, guaranteeing £120 off their bills to more than 600,000 of our most vulnerable pensioners.
Well, yes, Chris, but since you were part of making some of these guys fuel poor by adding to their bills, and these discounts don’t come from your back pocket or the Fairness Fairy, I get to take a second shafting as my bills go up proportionally more to pay for the discounts, and for other people’s solar panels and feed in tariffs. Cheers, Chris, have one on me, mate.
Now energy is going to be a major pain in future, and I’m happy to tell Chris that I am not paying proportionally anywhere near my fair share for his impoverished pensioners, feed in tariffs and damned wind turbines because I have attacked my power usage and I am in the process of reducing my heating bill by using the low-tech alternative of wood, so he can take his renewables tax and stick it where the sun doesn’t shine. Energy costs are going to keep an awful lot of people in wage slavery in the years to come, and reducing costs by gaining control of the means of production is my preferred approach to independence, from rapacious energy suppliers, misguided Liberal Democrats with a disdain for the proletariat and Russian gas disputes.
I might as well save some of my ire for Dave CamerHuhne, who delivers himself of this priceless quote
We can’t control volatile world energy prices. But we can still help people get their bills down.
No you can’t mate. The best they can do is keep the bills about the same. Not only has your buddy Mervyn King devalued the currency with extreme prejudice and intent to do more, which makes imports dearer, but gas and electricity have more than doubled in unit cost in recent times. I have dropped my usage by a third, but I can’t reduce my gas bills of late. All that is happening is mine goes up by less than most people’s. I’ve managed to press my case a lot better with electricity, but there is more you can change there.
economy peak oil
by ermine
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There are a lot of Bears in the camp these days…
I’m a macro-bear – I think that there are some pretty serious long-term hazards to economic growth, such as peak oil, environmental degradation and the like.
I’ve all of a sudden been joined by a whole shedload of Johnny-come-lately bears who are focused on the seriously short-term. Yes, we all know the Greeks are bankrupt and that the European politicians are trying to do a stealth bank-bailout of French and German banks. They’ll lose the fight sometime. The US is devaluing and seem to be in an epic internal fight of their own. The second dip of the double dip recession is hammering at the door.
It all reminds me of Ben Goldacre’s Twitter comment, on Rebekah Brooks
must feel amazing to work in an industry where when you f*** up, everyone else loses their job
only here its that everybody else gets to pay when the financial bank-wizards screwed up. There again, everybody was happy to take the liar loans, and we do so like to see really big numbers in house prices which loose lending is very happy to help with.
However, when it comes to looking at the stock market, it looks to me that companies are in a lot better shape than your average over-indebted Western consumer, and for that matter their over-indebted governments. At least the yield-paying sorts I am looking at are. Their debt levels seem lower and often profitability seems up (or costs are down).
I’m not sitting on anything that I’m currently unhappy with owning, as long as they keep on paying dividends. Obviously if this is the second dip on the way to down and out due to all that macro crap falling out of the sky then all bets are off, but I don’t feel that’s the case at the moment. This is the crap falling that was dodged the first time round. It’s still there, it still stinks, and it’s still out to get us, but I don’t feel that it’ll destroy steady companies that are making stuff that people need. As opposed to stuff they want, I’m not about to buy Thomas Cook even at a high yield, because it’ll be a long time before Brits are going on foreign holidays to the extent they were in 2007, particularly when interest rates go up on their over-leveraged homes.
So I have a list of companies that I’m interested in and would like to buy, and I’m keeping an eye on the price. This will probably be a drawn out slide, so I have to buy these companies is small amounts over several months. For instance, I’d like to buy Tesco, and I’d like to pay less that Mr Buffett did (about 380p in June last year), on the grounds that the yield at 3.6% is below my usual 4% minimum target and heck, I don’t have as much money as Buffett
I have a price alert on them of 380 and will start to look then. I’ll probably split my purchase in lumps spaced a couple of weeks apart as I can’t call where in the downswing I’ll find myself. I figure that I might as well ride with Buffett’s analysis, the financials are right for me, my shares based HYP is missing this sector and people probably aren’t going to give up eating any day soon.
I’ve got an eye on some others, I could do with another income IT, at a two digit discount, please. Discounts have narrowed a lot of late, what with everyone wanting income it seems, well, it’s time to shake the tree and see if people start selling again.
Valuations are improving on quite a few shares at the moment. I’m happy with the gains on my sharesave shares, so I am shorting a quarter of those to lock in the current price until I can get hold of them, as a bear market can hang around for a year or so.
It’s one of those sad things in life, that it’s easier to live with the stock market when you don’t need the money right now, it makes it easier to watch the gut-wrenching 50% loss in value that happened in the last bear market (2007-Mar 09 for the FTSE AS). This one could be a chance for me to fill in some of the missing slices in my asset allocation pie chart.
I’ll probably take the last bear market as a guide. Some firms such as Tesco took a reasonable hit to the share price but they’ve kept steady dividend growth through from 2005. Others such as ULVR have had a more ropey dividend performance. So I’ll take some hints from what happened last time, as it’s only a couple of years ago, and favour steady as she goes dividend performance where other parameters are comparable. Oh and I’ll pass on financials, having eaten a £200 loss on BARC (and having missed most of the recent slide I’m happy to say!). There’s still too many unknown unknowns for me there. I’ll stick with the one financial I do have, RSA.
So overall, all these bears jostling by my side need to start selling, but I’m not going to be one of them. I am a different sort of bear. I don’t think any of the firms I own shares in now will be destroyed by the forthcoming storm, and more than half steadily increased or maintained their dividends since 2005.
If they can keep doing that, I can eat a repeat of the 50% variation in share price some of them experienced in the last bear market. Unlike my previous forays where I chased growth, with the share price volatility making me nervous and jumpy, the stability of the income is a much more peaceful ride. As Monevator said
the companies chosen have steadily increased their dividends over the past five years, but during the same time their share prices have been all over the place.
All of the firms in my portfolio took a hit in the last recession, and none have reached their pre-recession heights. However, I had the good fortune to start in April 2009. There’s something to this buying when others are selling lark… I haven’t got the diversification right yet, because I targeted the higher yields first. Looks like the opportunity to fix that at a decent yield may be coming my way soon!
economy peak oil personal finance: complainypants peak car petrol prices SAHM traffic drop
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One of the great things about high petrol prices is that it prices other people off the road, apparently it’s Squeezing the Middle
There seems to be a constituency of consumers out there who are calling themselves the Squeezed Middle. And they’re mightily p*ssed off, so much so they want to vent. I got some choice words for them later on. However, I had a surprisingly pleasant experience yesterday.
I hauled my carcass into the car to drive to London to visit my parents, guess it’s a 75-mile trip each way. I’m mortgage free and I have no intention of taking out the small mortgage I’d need to buy a rail ticket. I’m going to London tomorrow by train for work and it costs my company £78 of their Great British Pounds to do it. I hope I can add that much value to the meeting compared to a phone conference, but heck, it’s their call as it’s on their coin.
So I fill up the car flexing the credit card for £62-odd. It’s been a couple of months since I bought petrol, as the trusty bicycle doesn’t touch the stuff. I note that it’s probably the highest about I’ve ever spent on a tank of petrol, and then I set myself on my journey down to The Smoke.
I launch myself onto the A12 from Ipswich, and I think to myself blimey, where have all the people gone? Is there a football match or a Royal Wedding on? Okay, so it’s a Sunday late morning, but I know what the traffic should be, I’ve done this journey often enough. So I settle in and try and maintain an even speed of about 60 to optimise my fuel consumption of my 12 year old car that has already seen more than 100,000 miles of road, and it’s dead easy. I’m not streetfighting the trucks and I can let all the folks who have more money than me hare along in the outside lane, but even they aren’t streaking past me at about 40-50mph above my speed as they used to.
This reminds me of how Britain’s roads were when I learned to drive, in 1984, you didn’t have the frenetic and tiresome jockeying for position then that has become the norm on our crowded highways.
So I say hooray for high petrol prices – it prices all those other buggers off the road that were getting in my way. I arrived at my parents’ place more relaxed than usual, heck, I’d pay more to get the balance shifted even further. Which is kinda just as well, as I’m sure it will go that way, for all sorts of reasons, like peak oil, the increasing debasement of Britain’s currency, the general decline of the Western world relative to the East in competing for natural resources etc.
According to the New Statesman we are into ‘peak car’ where people really are being priced off the road (hat tip to Alex for the heads up). About time too, the ever increasing volume of traffic on Britain’s roads, particularly the huge number of trucks doing the old truck race blocking both lanes of a two-lane road, was beginning to make inter-city driving in the UK really draining. On-cue the Grauniad delivers us this heart-wrenching tale of the Blanchards, a couple comprising of a chap and a SAHM who are part of the Squeezed Middle. Let’s take a look at the ways they seek to design oil dependency into their lifestyle.
So they had to get rid of one car, so the remaining vehicle naturally gets driven by the wage earner to get to work. What, then, is the nature of the complaint? It appears the lady (a SAHM I observe) has to take the 16-month old out of nursery ‘cos she no longer has a car to take him there, and now considers herself imprisoned in her home, to wit:
It means I can’t get anywhere now, including nursery.
Well, err, colour me a cynical son of a gun, but lady, you are a SAHM, so what’s with this nursery lark then? One of the upsides of living in a purty li’l village is you get to enjoy the birdsong and the smell of the countryside in its rich variety, one of the downsides is you are miles from anywhere – well, 10 miles from Cambridge. Apparently the bus fare for those 10 miles is now £5.40 return. Count yourself lucky, lady, the bus fare for me to get to work and back is that much and it’s only 6.5 miles each way, which is why I get on my bike.
These Squeezed Middlers have built themselves an unsustainable lifestyle, though at the moment the solution is easy – SAHM actually has to be a SAHM and SAH to be a M, the clue’s in the acronym. Tesco or Ocado are going to have to deliver… Then we have the coup de grace
Our children are missing out and the government needs to lower the price of petrol much closer to £1 to help families out.
It’s the classic please won’t you think of the children? line. Why does the government need to use my taxes to subsidise your lifestyle? I’m not being a child-hating fascist here, when I was a kid my family didn’t even have a car till I was in secondary school! Schools, yes, health, yes, excess driving for SAHMs to live out in the country yet have access to the facilities of the town like the nursery, let’s just hold on a moment. It is possible to survive without a car, y’know. The choice has been one that people took for years before oil – you store or save your needs for about a month if you live in the country, and make a monthly trip into town, or you live in a more modest abode in town with easy access to the facilities around you and shop every day.
In the coming decades transport will become ever more expensive. We will move ourselves are our supplies about less. We will manage stores better, as the fragile just-in-time supply chins that gorged on cheap oil fracture and fail in service. We will reimplement some of the systems that were used in the past, or more evenly distributed and graduated local, city, regional, county and country stores. We will probably still have modern communications and data processing, so we will manage our stock far more efficiently than we used to. And country dwellers will make infrequent trips into town. £5.40 return is a killer if you do it every day, but it is not outrageous if you do it once a week. My Mum shopped one a week to the shopping centre for durables and ISTR twice a week if not more often for fresh veg from greengrocers and market stalls.
We are going to have to think differently about how we live and how we supply ourselves. At least in Europe we still have a physical geography that reflects a time when supplies were distributed before cheap oil. I don’t know how Americans are going to be able to keep the suburbs and exurbs supplied in future, but they are a resourceful bunch so I am sure there’s a way.
Oh, and before I take some stick for being some hyper-rich Toad of Toad Hall, I spent a total of £319 on petrol last year, so I am not Mr Toad, and it is why I can afford it if petrol doubles in price, indeed I could cope if it went up 10x, though I would probably cut my mileage even more and bike in the rain. I’m not rich as Croesus either, my household income puts the household into the nominal Squeezed Middle, though having no mortgage probably puts me at the upper end of it in terms of disposable income. I haven’t designed a long commute into my lifestyle, that was a choice I made decades ago. My London commute was 15 miles and 1.5 hours each way, and I resolved that one of the things I was going to fix was making sure I didn’t have that experience again. I was lucky in having that bad experience, but in general we are increasingly going to have to design our lives to involve less driving. Moaning that the government should subsidise fuel to allow SAHMs to drive their kids to nursery isn’t the right answer…
In the meantime, I look forward to increasingly empty roads. I hadn’t noticed this drop in traffic going to work because my bike ride doesn’t go via too many main roads, and indeed it seemed to be the inter-city part of the journey that had less traffic, I can’t say I noticed any big reduction in town or in London.
peak oil personal finance shares: asset allocation rebalancing
by ermine
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A New Financial Year looming, plus the Sound of Thunder in the Distance
April 6 is the new financial year in the UK for some curious reason, as it seems the fiscal year ends on the more rational March 31. I’ve maxed my ISA for now, so the change of year means I get to have another bash at building tax-free assets that won’t be counted as income in future. It’s also a chance to have a general reshuffle. Every so often I have to get to lift the drains up and hose out the accumulated fat and grease of the finances to see if it accords with my values and beliefs. That’s not the same as getting the right answer, because my crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone else’s. but at least it will be my own mistakes
I don’t bugger about with formal rebalancing of my ISA, because I’m just not that kind of guy, and also because I am still in full ISA purchase mode what I do this year could shift my asset allocation by about 40%. So I rebalance by going to buy what I don’t already have a lot of. Which probably means mining, pharma, some REITs and some financials, but I have to research this.
What I need is a jolly good stock market crash this year, so I can buy cheaper. There are distant sounds of thunder – some of the eurozone rumblings and of course all that oil war adventure is probably good for some of this. Some part of me suspects that this distant sound of thunder is the beginning of the end, as Peak Oil starts to overcome industrial civilisation as we have currently set it up. Although I wasn’t economically active in 1973 I was sentient, and we’ve been here before, so I may get my jolly good stock market crash this year, possibly on the popular revolution in Saudi Arabia. The challenge, of course, will be whether it (the stock market, rather than Saudi…) gets up off its knees afterwards as it did then. An awful lot of companies’ business cases would look a lot different with oil at $250 a barrel, and not many of them would look better.
I wasn’t used to how National Savings Index linked certificates worked last year. In particular I didn’t realise that these were desert blooms, only available for a short time after the Spring rains. My plan was to buy £500 of these each month to give me a steady index-linked income boost in three year’s time (now two years). That doesn’t fit with the seasonal availability, so I only got £2000 into that before they were summarily canned. Which sort of put the kibosh on that bright idea
However, NS&I may still serve me well. I have an emergency fund of about £7500 in a two year’s back to back Nat West Cash ISA, which, all credit to them, has actually continued to provide a3%-ish interest rate. Now on reflection, there is a lot to be said for shifting this to NS&I certificates, because you can
- get the money out at short notice, although at an interest penalty
- but it’s a little bit of bother, so you have to think about it
- and thr RPI indexing means an emergency fund of £10k today will be able to fix the same amount of emergency in five years hence
- oh yes, and did I say it’s tax-free, so what the heck is the point of sterilising some of my ISA allowance looking after cash?
Which beats the cash ISA option, which dies a little bit by about 2% a year. There’s also an opportunity here – I believe I can transfer the Cash ISA into my shares ISA ands still load up with this year’s ISA allowance, ie I could get £17700 into my shares ISA earning an income for me rather than £10200 into it this year. Of course the downside of that is I have to save the £7500 to go into NS&I in the next month, plus save up £10200 over this next year plus increase my pre-tax savings in AVCs to keep that greedy tyke Osborne out of my pay packet.
That’s a very serious big ask and I may not make it, though my outgoings and non-financial investment costs have dropped. But it’s a potential opportunity.
As to the asset allocation, for myISA I have shifted it to this

March 11 ISA asset allocation
which, compared with December has changed to more accurately reflect my views on what an ISA should do for me. Which is buy me an income that isn’t considered an income for tax purposes. I’ve dropped all holdings of precious metals in my ISA because I have come to the conclusion that an ISA is not the place for precious metals. This isn’t because I have decided holding precious metals isn’t for me, I simply need to get my policy on that right, so at the moment I am exposed to currency debasement big time, apart from my non-financial investments.

Overall financial asset allocation
Overall my total share allocation including pension AVCs and stuff outside my ISA is more balanced. The obvious holes as mining stocks, AsiaPac and the US, all of which confuse me.
The US is home to an enterepreneurial bunch of go-getting people who aren’t known for taking no as an answer, and I am sure this will work to their advantage in future. However, they have some deep systemic problems arising from being a reserve currency, which has permitted some extreme excesses which are denied everyone else. I’d prefer not to be caught in the crossfire of unwinding those debts. The US is also hellishly exposed to Peak Oil, in a way which is so much more extreme than anywhere else.I can imagine a Europe without liquid transport fuels. I struggle to imagine a US without gasoline, with perhaps the exception of New York and some of the East Coast. And the low taxation of oil makes the US economy far more sensitive to increasing crude oil costs.
I am sure Americans may be resourceful enough to sort it, but they really do have to get off their butts and engage, simply repeating that “the American Way of Life is Not Negotiable” is not what I would consider a rational response. I am not sure that the military option is such a great answer either. There seems to be some doubt about whether it increased oil production in Iraq some say yes, but it is not a universally held view. So at the moment I don’t do America, other than as part of my FTSE100 holdings.
Mining, yes, shame that is riding high at the moment
A missed opportunity from last year.
AsiaPac – with the current state of the pound that all looks jolly expensive. I don’t do China, because I don’t understand it, and the demographics suck. I could combine mining with an Aussie tracker ETF, since mining seems to be a lot of what Australia is about.
I am tempted by India, which has strong demographics and a go-getting entrepreneurial class, though some very serious strategic problems. It is hard to gauge performance where the currency has such a shocking inflation rate of around 10%. db-xtrackers do a GPB denominated ETF but this is a synthetic tracker using derivatives and swaps, which introduces a lot of hidden extra counterparty risks.
Fortunately there’s no great hurry, apart from targeting that NS&I investment in April, and I have a war chest saved which can sort that for me, I will hit NS&I up to aim to hold a total RPI-indexed emergency fund of about 10k, so I can think about how to tackle the ISA over time.
peak oil: entitlement ingenuity warren buffett
by ermine
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Warren Buffet is wrong, there Are limits to Human Ingenuity
It’s not often that I’ll find the brass nuts to call out the Sage of Omaha for talking through his hat, but this is one of them. In the usual fabulous letter to his shareholders including one heartwarming extract from Grandpa Buffett extolling the virtues of old-fashioned thrift. Nothing wrong with any of that. It’s here where I part company with the Sage of Omaha a little bit:
Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America. Commentators today often talk of “great uncertainty.” But think back, for example, to December 6, 1941, October 18, 1987 and September 10, 2001. No matter how serene today may be, tomorrow is always uncertain.
Don’t let that reality spook you. Throughout my lifetime, politicians and pundits have constantly moaned about terrifying problems facing America. Yet our citizens now live an astonishing six times better than when I was born.
The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential – a system that has worked wonders for over two centuries despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War – remains alive and effective.
We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1776, 1861, 1932 and 1941, America’s best days lie ahead.
The problem with this is that it is entirely ingenuity-centric. Human ingenuity and graft were undoubtedly a lot of why America’s best days lay ahead in 1776, though let’s face it they could hardly have lain behind
And yet for all of the remaining three dates, human ingenuity had its little helpers, the gift of ancient sunlight that gave it a leg-up. For sure, that ingenuity was necessary to make use of it, but it is insufficient on its own to do all of the stuff we take for granted. London lies some four hundred miles from Edinburgh. In 1776 it would have taken the best part of a month to do it using renewable energy (horse power). Now I can decide to leave at noon and be in Edinburgh by sundown. Human ingenuity created the means, but it doesn’t power it.
Warren is right in that America will probably not run out of human ingenuity. But it might run out of resources that human ingenuity needs to deliver its current lifestyle. Whether or not America manages to use its human ingenuity to find a different, perhaps better lifestyle is going to depend on it getting rid of human ingenuity’s evil twin, America’s human sense of entitlement.
Just like Scarlett O’Hara was at her best when she clawed as the soil of Tara and declared that she would make something from nothing, so it seems so often that human ingenuity achieves its best when it does not have the drag of a sense of entitlement pulling people back. Entitlement makes us avoid seeing the world as it is by imposing the world as we”d like it to be onto it.
America’s best days may well be behind it. This won’t be because the wellspring of ingenuity will fail in America. If it happens it will be because Americans’ sense of entitlement to the benefits of cheap energy will blind them to alternative solutions that would need less energy.
Warren may be right in the end and Americans step up to the plate. But for once it won’t be their ingenuity that gets them through. It’ll be ditching their sense of entitlement.
Buffet was talking about Americans, so I’d followed the theme. But it applies to all of us who currently have our lives made easier and more plentiful by cheap oil. We all need to lose the sense of entitlement, and learn to give energy the respect it deserves. Though I can easily bike to work and back, I am not a good enough cyclist to sustain the power to run this laptop computer I am writing this on for the amount of time it took me to write this post. But I have enough ingenuity to imagine an alternative which would be be just as rewarding. Sometimes it is good to drink a few beers with friends and hold forth on a subject. Humans did that well for centuries before the oil age.
Our challenge in the coming decades will not be finding enough ingenuity. It will be getting rid of our sense of entitlement…
peak oil personal finance: financial independence
by ermine
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Findependence Day, just as Peak Oil’s advance guard comes knocking
Early in my current job, sometime in the early 1990s, there was a all personnel management course mandated called “the Winning Edge”, I think it was from these guys, indeed the geezer in the video looks like the chap who led the course, the intervening 20 years has not been too hard on him.
Now most management courses are utter codswallop. Of course we could all get more stuff done if we concentrated more/cared more/worked longer/smarter/harder and pretty much every management course I’ve been on has been a variant of one or more of those themes, together with the latest management school fad. You know, the usual suspects, total quality management, anything from Peter Drucker, management by objectives, management by fear(oops, sorry, I meant to say modern performance management), management by incentives, management by walking around. The one course I’ve never seen is the one titled “What’s the difference between Leadership and Management, Why it Matters and How You can Tell One from the Other” but that’s a rant for another day.
This course was subtly different. At the time the Firm was trying to get rid of a whole bunch of people by some pretty awesome financial incentives, particularly for the old fossils that were about as old as I am now
These guys tended to be lifers with some twenty or thirty years at the Firm, and a fairly set view of what they were going to do – ie carry on to 60 and retire. The aim was to jolly them along a bit and get them to take up the financial incentives and reduce the wage bill.
So the Winning Edge was a little different, asking what limiting beliefs people had and what they really want. I sat in the room of a fine hotel in Aldeburgh, looking dreamily out of the window at the seagulls wheeling about in the late winter sunshine. You know how it is when you ought to be paying attention but you’re thinking of that pretty girl who served you lunch. Fortunately somewhere in the back of your mind there’s a little guy with a tape recorder recording what you should be listening to, and every so often he picks up something odd and knocks on the glass window in your brain between the main thread of consciousness and everything else. He says “Oi, you might want to hear this” , backs the tape up a bit and replays it.
So he does that and my mind wanders back from the girl, and the seagulls, and how it is that there’s so much dust in the air that you can see the sunbeams, and the little guy rolls tape.
And I realise that in the last few seconds that Mr Big Cheese Departmental Manager has been standing up in this Aldeburgh hotel and telling the whole department that what he would really like to have is Financial Independence.
That’s what made me sit up and listen. Here was a bloke in his late forties, on a wedge somewhere north of 35 grand at the time. The Bank of England tells me that is £57,000 in today’s money. I was a lowly pup on less than half that at the time, and I was staggered. How on earth can this guy not feel financially independent when he’s on twice as much money, what the heck is up with that?
I was happy in my job at the time and so I didn’t understand a) what financial independence was and b) why you would want to have it. The difference between debt and deficit was not clear to me.
Fast forward almost a couple of decades to April 2009 and I have the pleasure of hearing a sociopathic manager not give a damn about some traumatic elements that had happened to me in the last year, admittedly outside work, harping on that I was in an area where my skills didn’t fit.
There was a different area at work where there were customers and work for those skills, but due to ‘headcount limitations’ he needed bodies. So he said I had to retrain for some Cisco crap which I could see plain as the light of day was going to be outsourced to India in the next couple of years, and I thought to myself “I am pig-sick of listening to jumped-up twits like you wittering on about your damned objectives. I don’t like the cut of your jib, mate, and I can see where this is going. What’s good for you, buddy, ain’t looking so good for me, and it bores me senseless, too.”
I mean, it’s not hard, guys. This is network plumbing. Network configuration is easily remoteable, shifting data from one place to another is what networking equipment does for a living. And there are shedloads of guys in Bangalore that are reasonably bright, reasonably young and are prepared to work for a third of what I am prepared to work for. As a shareholder I happened to know that the Firm had just taken a big stake in an Indian BPO/IT company. So why exactly should I retrain to jump into this bear trap? Obviously I know enough networking to get stuff going as basic professional competence, but memorising tedious Cisco-speak to get a CCIE only to be hoofed in a couple of years (ie now) wasn’t where I saw success lying.
In that interaction I understood what the meaning of financial independence was, and like Proust’s madeleines I recalled Mr Winning Edge and the Big Cheese stating he wanted financial independence. Because I didn’t have financial independence I needed to work to keep a roof over my head. I had to act all nice to Mr Sociopathic Line Manager and smile as he was giving me the BS that this was all good for my career development (ie his objectives), as opposed to what I would do to a double glazing salesman trying to sell me BS – ie tell him to go forth and multiply.
I’ve just been back to Mr Winning Edge’s website and he is still harping on about the same things
- Do you feel that events and other people around you control your life?
- Do you struggle to find the motivation and passion you think you should have?
- Do you find yourself a victim of your own emotional states?
- Do you have a clear image of where your life is going and what you want from it?
- Do you feel fulfilled in your career and do you feel you are achieving everything you can?
Now a lot of this is in danger of being Calvinist cobblers, inasmuch as the aim of life is to have a good time and have fun, not get trapped in Max Weber’s Iron Cage of work. I was okay with all of those five as the young pup, but as I listened nearly 20 years later to the twerp explaining to me that I had the wrong skills some of those answers didn’t look good, a bit more like
- Yes, I have to listen to sociopathic managers like you drivel on trying to maximize your performance at the cost of shafting me
- Yes, see 1 above
- Perhaps yes, there isn’t so much I would like to see now as your smug face missing a few teeth…
- Yup, as far away from here as is practicable.
- No, it’s tedious when I am being told to throw away what I know so I can be outsourced. I wasn’t born yesterday, mate.
Not a good situation. At least I’ve managed to get this twerp out of my life, more by luck than judgement. When you have an experience like that, you have two choices. You can either surrender and suck it up, or you can examine what you need to do to kill the beast.
So I rolled up my sleeves, immediately took out a Cash ISA in March 09 for about three and a half grand, and canned all discretionary consumer spending. In April 09 I topped up that cash ISA to seven and a bit grand, and figured after three months of saving I was done with emergency fund requirements, it was time to start buying financial independence. For various reasons the earliest it makes sense for me to draw my pension is 2015, which is also about the latest it makes sense as otherwise the Government will start stealing more and more of it as tax (pensions are taxed as income in the UK). Although I’d had share ISAs before, the traumatic experience led to all that being liquidated, fortunately before the credit crunch, so it was time to start again.
At the same time it was time to stop the Government stealing so much of my income in tax so pumping up my pension AVCs gets rid of my 40% tax liability and then some. All enabled by locking down spending. Freedom from tossers telling you what to do comes at a price. I haven’t had a holiday away since 2008 and started to attack my energy consumption and any other steady costs – that means cold turkey on consumerism, charitable spending, the lot. I have become slightly less hard-line as time went by and reinstated a couple of the latter items after examining my values, but generally the hatches are battened down.
Financial independence is a funny old thing, and it appears to have crept up on me, silently, without giving me a chance to break out the champagne. I use Quicken 98 to manage my finances, and observed recently that if I divide my total cash savings by four I have more than my yearly essential running costs.
My shares ISA don’t help that much, because I can only buy an income of about £500 a year. That’s assuming a yield of 5% on about £10200 invested a year, and I only have a year and a half because 2009 has half the ISA allocation to cash, and 2011′s year hasn’t started yet.
Now it is a meagre form of financial independence – because I would have to run with everything locked down until 2015. That means living like ERE, which, although I agree with his sentiment
Success is having everything you need and doing everything you want. It is not doing everything you need to have everything you want.
I find it just too spartan for my tastes. I am also older than Jacob and a damn sight less fit, and aware that although I can easily chop firewood now that won’t last 30,40 years into the future. So the financial independence I have now is of a paltry and meagre kind, though I will be significantly better off from 2015. So there are good reasons to carry on working, while accepting I may fall into the one more year before comfort fallacy:
- I have at least one possible reasonably expensive project I want to start when retired for which I’d like to save my part of the money ahead
- The advance guard of Peak Oil seems to be rapping at the door. An awful lot of things will get a lot dearer, and there will be enormous changes to the economy if indeed it survives intact. My financial investments may be rendered down to toilet paper so relying on those may be unwise until the smoke clears a bit…
The original plan was to win freedom in three years time, so I have a year to go, and some other conditions that make it better in a year and a half (Sept 2012 not April 2012). There is something gratifying in passing this milestone a little bit early, as a result of being able to reduce essential spending by more than I had estimated.
Oh and before anybody tries to bite me for being a lazy b*d and being a load on society, note that anybody with capital of more than £16,000 is automatically debarred from claiming any Government benefits until they reach 66 (currently in my case). In saving and discharging my mortgage I took the decision (knowingly ahead, FWIW) to cut myself off from the support of the government for my income. So I’m not living off your taxes, bud
As for the term Findependence, I pinched it from John Chevreau’s Findependence Day. I’ve never read it, but the summary as he was hawking the book inspired me as I made the call whether to suck it up or take the fight to the enemy in 2009. You can read the first chapter here. It’s not that applicable to be as I’d need to lose a few birthdays to start from where his characters start, but I’ve never had some of their problems either
economy peak oil reflections
by ermine
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the Energy Conundrum
Seems appropriate to tackle this one at the moment, when the nut-case Gaddafi appears to be bashing seven bells out of his people, the energy situation could take a turn for the worse.
It’s not so much the uncertainty over the Arab world, which supplies most of the oil used worldwide, though not as much as it used to. It’s the fact that we’ve probably all got to have to start getting used to using a lot less of it. The uncertainty in the Arab world may bring this on sooner, but only by a few years.
The trouble is that we’ve been mining the power of ancient sunlight for many years now, and its let us get ahead of ourselves a bit. It’s also come in a damned convenient form, which with a bit of refinement and chemical wizardry enables us to get a very compact store of energy.
For a lot of energy applications the compact storage doesn’t matter – I’m not so concerned if my electricity comes from great hulking lumps of coal or from tiny amounts of nuclear fuel. But when it comes to fuelling my car, I have got awfully used to being able to load enough fuel good for about 400 miles in about five minutes.
In some ways even if we didn’t mine oil we’d have to invent it – it’s a really convenient store of energy, and indeed you can make oil from wood. So we can cancel all that hoo-hah about peak oil happening in 2009 then, and kick back and enjoy the ride, and another few hundred years of continuous growth?
Not so fast. There probably is a place for synthetic oil even if we don’t get it from the ground, because of a hundred years of experience in handling it in transportation applications. Although in Hollywood movies car crashes result in stupendous fireballs, we have got good enough at designing fuel storage that it doesn’t happen that way so often.
Obviously we may want to use electricity in future, and there is an awful lot ot be said for electrically powered traction in land vehicles – you get to lose the need to gear-shift to match the load to the narrow power band of an internal combustion engine. However, storing electricity is still a right mess, and high energy density batteries tend to use exotic materials, compared to the low-tech of a petrol tank.
People often cite human ingenuity as being ready to solve all our energy problems, so let’s assume we have decent, safe compact energy storage, even when it is no longer economically viable to mine oil to use as an energy source. We might still use it as a feedstock for plastics etc, but say that the cost of oil per unit energy rises above the value of the industrial output it can facilitate.
The trouble with human ingenuity it that it has no answer for the fundamental question
where is the energy going to come from?
and that is a real downer. Ingenuity will never find a solution to the First law of Thermodynamics. The last time humanity lived within the scope of the energy it could sustainably harvest from the sun was about 1900. Okay, so we can probably catch a hell of a lot more than they did then, but as David MacKay analysed in Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air renewables just ain’t gonna cut it for the UK, leastways not if we want to eat, or pretty much want to see any of this green and pleasant land rather than covering it with solar panels and industrial clobber.
One area we really could get to use some of our much vaunted human ingenuity is to apply ourselves to wasting less energy. That divdes into two areas – cutting down frivolity and improving efficiency. There isn’t any real excuse for air travel city breaks and domestic air conditioning (in the UK) and the sooner that sort of thing is priced out of the reach of the average Brit the better in my view, it’s the market doing the job it’s designed to do, not a revolting attack on the common man as it is sometimes portrayed. You’re entitled to air, not air travel…
According to David MacKay, the average annual energy usage of someone in the UK is 125kWh/d, broken up into 40kWh/d heating, 40kWh/d transport and 18kWh/d electricity consumption, with the rest being lost in transmission. I assume he’s counting the usage by industry, otherwise we are wasteful indeed in the UK – my personal usage is 15/13/2 for comparison.
Apart from air travel,the whole work/commuting/house price mess is susceptible to reductions. At the moment cheap energy/transport is distorting our economy and living patterns, concentrating them and leading us to commute long distances. In an energy challenged world we just won’t be able to do that, and hopefully the requirement to produce bulk consumables (food, building materials etc) closer to the point of use will spread things out a bit more.
I haven’t really come to a view yet on how an energy challenged world will change the balance between capital and labour. In today’s world, capital has used cheap energy to drive te cost of labour down, but this has been facilitated by better communications. We will probably retain most of the better communications, but we may end up focusing more on the basics and essentials of life.
I also haven’t taken a view on the effect of an energy crunch on human population because I haven’t got any way of getting my head round the data. It will probably range somewhere between the living standards of the 1960s in the West and the sort of thing dieoff.org is all about. It’ll probably be different from life today, and curiously enough I think that some of that difference may not necessarily be a bad thing.

