it could be you, but it’s incredibly unlikely

That’s of course the motto of the UK National Lottery, but it is increasingly the mantra of a lot of other ways capitalism is making use of the way we humans can’t get statistically small chances. I was reminded of this when I read a curious article on the Guardian about a chap trying to become a pro video gamer. To be fair to him, at least he got an article out of it and presumably the Guardian paid him, but in addition to the WTF factor, I am amazed that a reasonably intelligent fellow even entertained the idea.

a modern-day Mark of the Beast

a modern-day Mark of the Beast

The rules are different for people with good contacts or those with a net worth of more than about £10million, because you can then buy the government, or at least influence the rules. You can even convince yourself you’re not being evil when you pay corporation tax at 3% rather than 20%. For ordinary grunts ways to make a living come in several classes other than selling your time for money in traditional employment.

fifty ways to make a living

you can make a product or service, that is likely to provide an income of sorts if you can find buyers at the right price. That’s because you are changing the world in some way that others find of value, that for some reason they have neither the skill or inclination to do. Such honest toilers include builders, cleaners, doctors, gardeners, some ebay traders, people who work in the shop round the corner.

Not everything of value is of course tangible – artists create expressions of their view of the world which others of us can use as a framework to hang our hopes, dreams or fuzzy insights on, we pay them. Market makers of various sorts can sometimes add value – in the past wholesalers and distributors parcelled up small purchases into bigger ones. Music, childcare, dance classes are services. I passed Dial-a-Dog Wash a while back. I guess the product is a cleaner and less stinky hound.

Arbitrage works – skimming a bunch of other people because you have superior resources, knowledge or connectivity. The entire financial industry is a case in point. It doesn’t make anything, but it amplifies dreams. For instance it lets foolhardy house buyers overpay for houses. I managed to buy a house as a single man on a entry-level white collar salary nearly thirty years ago, that’s not really possible now. I’m not quite sure why that is considered success, but we all conspired to make it happen, with the benevolence of organisations able to create money out of thin air. But finance does do good stuff too. It lets us insure against low-likelihood but high impact risks. It puts money in the hands of people with talent but no capital. On the way it fleeces many of us shitless. This kind of way of earning a living on a freelance level depends on contacts and chutzpah, and it is lucrative.

There is, however, a Dark Star of enterprises, these are ones where we have a zero-sum game with a huge number of punters and an extremely low likelihood of getting fame and fortune.

Deep Throat was right. Follow the money

In the early 1970s, the Washington Post reporters trying to break the Watergate story were given a sage piece of advice by their informer, although the principle dates back to Roman times. Follow the moneycui bono in its classical form. It’s still a decent way of qualifying a financial opportunity someone sticks in front of your nose.The ermine has some simple rules about this:

  • If the opportunity comes to me of its own volition, it’s not something I want to pursue. Exeunt doorstep sellers, all advertising flyers, cold callers on the phone. It’s why I run ad-block plus. If I didn’t ask to know, I don’t want to know. End of. I am perfectly capable of getting novelty from the world myself – be curious, and aim to know more when you get to bed than when you got up. Even if in includes that pro video gamer is a thing.
  • If I can’t see what a financial opportunity produces or adds to the world, it’s likely a scam. Even if it isn’t a scam, I am not smart enough or too lazy to be able to tell it apart form a scam. I don’t want to know. You can get rich through things like this if and only if you get out at the right time… Madoff made people rich. Until he made them poor.
  • All sellers are liars and charlatans who promote their interests at my expense. Be careful out there. It isn’t universally true but it’s a good starting guess.
  • Very few things in a market economy are truly free. For example, you pay for coupons, Topcashback and Quidco with dedicating headspace to getting a little bit of the money you overpaid back. There’s an opportunity cost of time and attention. The more you think about shopping, the more you are likely to shop.
  • If somebody wants you to sign on the dotted line now without thinking it over, it’s a very bad deal. If it were a good deal, it would survive the scrutiny of sleeping on it. Walk away.

In general, follow the money. If this transaction goes ahead, who wins? If you were unaware of this outstanding lime-limited opportunity this morning, then the winner isn’t likely to be you.

The Seventies discourse on media  was surprisingly prescient about our times – Andy Warhol’s 15 minutes of fame anticipated the vastly improved communications we have, breaking down the layers that graded performers’ access to the audience. On a small scale it costs me virtually nothing to reach you, dear reader, and I hope it costs you virtually nothing to read. Before the turn of the millennium that simply wasn’t possible.

This massive increase in communication and the reduction in costs makes us all potential performers now, the hierarchy of gatekeepers that qualified which subjects were worthy to be represented has been eliminated. They were only there to guard access to the expensive medium of communication, their function of grading out the dross was a secondary, not a primary function. You probably have more than 100 channels on Sky TV at home. They probably aren’t worth 30 times more of your time than when we had three TV channels in the 1970s. more »

I want to learn to spend a little more, with grace, with gratitude and with a new map

Everyone is on the New Year’s resolutions track, and most PF folk want to save more. I am going to take a different line this year, because I am in a new territory. That needs a new map. It’s been a long time coming, over six months between when I started the process of transferring my DC savings to Hargreaves Lansdown and actually seeing the numbers tick up. It has happened now.

That'll be a nice Lamborghini, and to hell with the money

That’ll be a nice Lamborghini, and to hell with the money. Secondhand, in my case, as I am using five years worth of pension, not a lifetime’s worth.

So the long period of coasting between my last pay packet in June 2012 and the first appearance of a regular income in the new tax year worked. I will enter the new tax year with some working cash to spare, and all the earnings from this year to toss into the SIPP on March 31. It has been a very different perspective, living on the fossil wealth of my erstwhile career to living on an income. That period felt like a limbo – yes I had retired but there were hazards that meant I might have had to work. Now it is very likely that I will never work again, at any rate at the level of most of my working life. Sticklers for accuracy will, of course point out that a pension is also fossil wealth, but living with it expressed as an income is different to living off saved capital. The amount in the SIPP is such that I could rush out and purchase a Lamborghini – I’m quite taken by this red one  – I am not rich enough to buy the quarter-million jobs but I am good to follow through on Steve Webb’s recommendations for the lower end of the secondhand market.

Passing through the turning point is difficult – there is a big  difference between living off capital and using income

I was always a salaryman, not an entrepreneur, and so as I left the workforce and the income tap turned off, I lost my main financial navigational instrument, the first law of Wilkins Micawber – spend less than you earn. This has guided me across thirty years of working life, but once the annual income falls to zero, this waypointer spins in a pathless land and knows no North. And at the same time the source of accumulation ceased. That I was able to still accumulate is tribute to an ageing bull run that seems to have finally reached senescence. I am not complaining, as someone who now has too much asset allocation to cash 😉 I am disappointed in RBS’s definition of cataclysmic year. WTF is the use of a fall of 20%? 50% is what I want :) OTOH this fellow has he S&P at 800, 1200 will do me.

For three years the answer on how much can I spend always came back ‘as little as possible’. I struggled initially because I couldn’t serve two masters, and eventually accepted the slow fall in working capital.

Decline and fall

The turning point

Some of that struggle was simply not acknowledging that I had passed the accumulation phase, had reached the apogee of my earning power and accumulated wealth. It felt wrong because for thirty years previously it would have been wrong. The switch to living off capital may be doubly hard for people in the PF community who have focused on accumulation for many years. I am lucky and perhaps privileged – my main pension is expressed in terms of income not capital and I am burning up a Lamborghini’s worth of DC savings ahead of it to avoid the penalty of drawing it early.

Everybody else’s New Year’s resolutions are how to save more or earn more. Mine are about learning to spend more 😉

Over at Quietly Saving Weenie is sensibly looking to push her savings rate up. FFB40 has set himself a plethora of goals broadly aiming to earn 100k this year and presumably save a fair chunk of it. ERG is doing forex trading and matched betting.

I now have the answer to Micawber. For the next five years I can spend up to £14k a year and not fall behind 1, which roughly matches Mr Z’s Goldilocks spender‘s disposable income. If I drew an income from the ISA I could push that to 18k. That’s the equivalent to earning 20k gross p.a. which is apparently the white collar minimum in London according to FvL. God knows how people do it – I left London 28 years ago earning more than that in real terms because I was pissed off with being skint all the time and living in shared accommodation. I must have been a terrible spendthrift, because nothing indicates to me that London living has got cheaper in real terms over those three decades. But I obeyed Micawber’s rule, so while none of it stuck to the sides I was debt-free.

I have not been spending anything like 18k p.a. across the last few years. I don’t aim to take it with me into a next life, so I need to become a curious combination of Mr Zombie’s Jones’ and frugalistas. I need to keep his chart on the level, not go for the networth increase and accumulation that has been the watchword until now, otherwise I will be rich in the graveyard but poor in life. That is a big change in perspective.

We went to Orford to celebrate the milestone where Mrs Ermine bought me lunch at the Pump St Bakery  and I finally managed to crack open the wallet and blow £20 on some fine products from Pinney’s smokehouse, after observing this fine piece of cold war brutalism across the river in the January breeze.

Orfordness radio station, erstwhile site of the failed Cobra Mist Cold War over the horizon radar

Orfordness radio station, mothballed in 2012, erstwhile site of the failed Cobra Mist Cold War over the horizon radar.

The village seemed totally quiet, I guess this second weekend of the new year isn’t a time most people are on the razz. Unlike Steve Webb’s exhortation, I’m not going to go mad, but it is a significant change to my situation. I need to reflect upon the upside of spending, without being suckered into the stupid consumerism that promises but doesn’t deliver. I spent so much effort over the years to shoot needless spending, and I find I don’t know what to do here.

Then last night we went out to the Fox at Newbourne to celebrate some more, and in returning we passed the Firm and I recalled the first time I had come there twenty-seven years ago, also in the night, and it felt as if the circle had turned now fully, when I change from being a retiree to being a pensioner 😉 The pub has positive memories from the Firm – many project topping out celebrations as well as a fair few summer lunchtimes dreaming up project ideas or setting the world to rights in the distant early years before the dotcom bust. It was a different world of work then, much more creative and less micromanaged routine paint by numbers…

I froze all my SIPP savings in cash as of March 2012 because I believed I was leaving then and would have needed to liquidate that AVC fund as a pension commencement lump sum. It happened to be a local high for  the FTSE100 around the 5900 mark. I occasionally cursed myself in the intervening period for not leaving it invested, but I lived by the old rule of thumb – don’t have capital you expect to call on in less than five years in the markets. If the period is longer it’s worth taking the volatility of the markets because inflation will also be eating at the value. And as it turned out the FTSE100 is within spitting distance of March 2012. Had I kept it in the 50:50 FTSE/global fund I would be notably better off now. But what the hell. At the moment the stock market can’t hurt 2 my SIPP or main pension, and I’m okay with giving up the upside. I will take market risk all in the ISA and soem unwrapped equity holdings.

I am now an oddity in the PF universe

because I have crossed to the other side of the accumulation/decumulation divide. Most writers are in the accumulation phase. Indeed the only other exception I can think in the PF blogs I read is Jim. As such my aims and risk profile have changed in a big way. There are many standard FI/RE things on my old map that I will not need to do –

no need for pension saving (beyond the £3600 to get £720 p.a free money for a few years). Having earnings has buggered this tax opportunity up somewhat anyway.

While on zero income I carried an emergency fund of several tens of thousands in cash across the three years, because I needed to be my own lender of last resort in an emergency. Nobody lends money to someone without an income 3, but I have an income now. I was lucky – no emergency happened. Some of this erstwhile cash reserve needs to get invested and start working for me now that I have an income and could borrow against the future income stream again, in the same rationale as Jacob ERE. Of course I will still need an emergency fund of sorts, but much less. I will retain my NS&I ILSCs and shift the rest into a new S&S ISA. I don’t need the three-years expenses cash buffer to smooth investment income, because I won’t be living off investment income.

I am nominally working in this tax year, it will be my 35th and final year of National Insurance to pay. I will electively pay that NI, to become fully paid up.  I asked for a State Pension forecast which is about £7100 p.a. It’s not quite clear to me where I got this good fortune, as I have been contracted out for 20 years, and the last time I asked for a statement in 2009 the amount was £5700 p.a. I am not sure I can rely on the existence of a State pension – it’s still another 12 years before I’d get it which is 12 years for some government to decide to means test it. If I were to get that then I personally would have an income of the typical UK household. That is more than enough for me.

I have an ISA originally designed to compensate for the actuarial reduction to my pension from drawing it early, which is no longer required because I won’t draw early. A source of tax-free income is always nice, and I will continue to build this up, though the market crash will no doubt make this smaller in the near future. In the long run (10 to 20 years) it will compensate for the erosion of my pension relative to workers due to earnings inflation outstripping RPI, and gives me some buffer against modest strings of bad times. If peak oil happens, zombie apocalypse or other shocks to the system I am still stuffed of course. Otherwise I am like this Telegraph pensioner, I will never be rich, but I will never be poor. Thirty years is a long time – for perspective thirty years ago I was still working in London… Things will change.

That ISA may begin to compound. I am not a great believer in compound interest in helping you get to financial independence. But once you reach FI, and in particular if you don’t need the income from a lump of capital, it starts to snowball. In its short life of about six years of contributions and no withdrawals, the accumulated dividend income has put in about a year’s worth of ISA allowance into the pot on top of my contributions, which is being reinvested. The ISA needs splitting and part transferring to other platforms, because it is now way over the FSCS guarantee 4.

I don’t really know where I’m going with the ISA because the original aims has been overtaken by events and Osborne’s changes. But I will have a lot of cash looking for a home from that large emergency fund and the PCLS, and Fortune seems to be smiling on me by beating up the stock market for me in advance for 2016. I bought a lot of gold ETFs in stages in 2015 to try and get more defensive in the face of a frothy market, and up to RIT’s 5% asset allocation. This is the first and only of my 2015 purchases to turn a profit now. The less said about HRUB, oil, mining and emerging markets the better for now, though I confess to a temptation to double down on some of those. Every dog has its day 😉 OTOH if the market continues to take even more stick then that is a time to build the HYP too – you can’t build a HYP cheaply  in the heady heft of a bull market.

What can go wrong

There is always lots that can go wrong. Let’s face it, in the 1960s of my early life we had Kennedy and Khrushchev glowering across the Cuban Missile crisis and B52 bombers on 24/7 watch over the North Pole with nuclear bombs. Somehow, despite frequent accidents we survived. The 1970s had the oil crises and the Winter of Discontent as the unions manipulated the government like puppets on a string, and 26% annual inflation in 1979. The 1980s had two harsh recessions, a lot more Cold War sabre rattling, Thatcher’s goons in running battles with Arthur Scargill’s goons. The 1990s had the implosion of Russia and all the hazards that entailed, the slaughtering of UK housing as a can’t fail asset class and the Asian financial crisis which was the birth pangs of capitalism trying to adapt to a tripling of the world workforce as the Iron Curtain and other barriers to trade began to fall. The 2000s had the dotcom bust and some of that increasing world workforce weakening the power of labour versus capital in the West; we are still trying to work out where all the rubble is ongoing to fall. The 2010s seem to be about more geopolitical risk, and ugly confluence of mediaeval religious tenets with 21st century technology, along with a lot of chickens freed by the neocons coming home to roost. On the subject of religion, in one generation the West lost all the moral and intellectual principles that were lauded by Niall Ferguson for making it such an effective economic machine with its shared values from the Enlightenment – we are all consumers now. Those shared values had their problems too – they ossified the class system and justified a lot of actions we would now disapprove of, but they were a common myth of perhaps a different nature from our current one of continuous growth. We seem to be still working on a replacement story for how/why to be better at being human, which is probably not purely a materialistic enterprise. That’s a drag given our economic creed knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

So far we have survived. There will be change across the next thirty years, some of it welcome, some of it unwelcome. I think I have made a reasonable fist of hedging what I can. I do not have enough to hedge wars of all against all, zombie apocalypse or even the sort of aggravation Moneyweek has been trying to scare its readers shitless about to sell more magazines.

There are far too many people in the world for us all to live the American Dream of the 1950s never mind like the Wolf of Wall Street, although I hazard that we could all live like kings of old materially.  But I have come to see the wisdom of accepting the uncertainty without dwelling on it – coffee for the things I can do something about, red wine for those that I can’t change. The bearish argument always sounds smarter. But as a way of living life to the full it sucks – it raises your blood pressure and makes you miserable. So I am going to park that. Yes, I may one day regret not having a bug out bag and guns and ammo. But hopefully I will also have missed living ten or twenty years thinking about the bug out bag and the ammo. Humans need to be careful gazing long into the abyss, because else the bastard will blink and look back into you.

What I know will go wrong

There are some things we do know. Brexit or not will scare the horses, and it’s an intricate mess from which it’s hard to see which way is up. Taxes will rise, because they have to, we’ve lived beyond our means for a long time and are still at it. For all the bellyaching income taxes are in fact at low levels in living history, which is part of the problem. The young Ermine at the start of his career paid a much bigger proportion of his pay in tax and national insurance 5 than the old Ermine in the last three years of his career. The solution to paying high taxes is be no tall poppy – live a reasonably economical life, because then you have the push-back of lots of people on your side. If you are going to live more than  a third up Fire V London’s scale you are going to pay a shitload of tax until you get into the upper reaches (whereupon you will pay clever people to avoid tax for you in creative and highly inventive ways). Likewise if you want to live in London and decide your children are special flowers who need private education, then this decision creates a fierce money burning furnace that you need to continually feed. You will find it difficult to minimise taxation and need to focus on increasing income to feed the fire. You takes your lifestyle choices and you pays your money.

There may, however, be trouble in raising taxation. I can imagine the integration of NI and income tax, which would hit me with a tax hike on pension income. Reducing tax exemptions are another way. Pundits are screaming blue murder about tax relief above the basic rate on pension contributions. In the UK 15% of people pay over half the income tax take. Monevator is talking about going Galt with dark mutterings about  “supporting other people’s lifestyle choices, rather than the essentials of State and a worthwhile safety net”. This was a large part of my hitting pension savings hard too.

On the other hand I find it hard to view people spending less time at the office as a bad thing. They really should spend more time with their children and see them grow up – my working class parents saw more of me growing up in the employment environment of 40 years ago than typical middle class parents both working to pay for their consumption do now. The latter of course have far more and better Stuff and numerous fast and furious fancy foreign holidays, but time isn’t a renewable resource. The days are long but the years are short. If the robots really are going to come for our jobs then more free time is an upside, not something going wrong 😉 The trouble is a lot of people won’t have that choice, the power structure is such that extra productivity will likely increase the return on capital rather than increasing overall human happiness. The solutions Asimov’s Solarians took to arranging their society so the humans had a high standard of living in a work-free world always cause palpitations in right-thinking people, so I don’t know how that will pan out.

ambitions in things other than finance too

There seems to be a big thing about goals and metrics in the PF community. Personally I think goals and metrics suck the joy out of life and work, so I don’t do that. But a total amorphous mess isn’t effective either, so I have some ambitions. January is a terrible time of year to try and start anything – we really should be starting our year somewhere between February and May so you get a bit of a leg-up in cheer and hope from Nature. Although if we are all going to sit behind screens in a virtual world like those Solarians perhaps that will become irrelevant in the years to come. We will become Spacers all watched over by machines of loving grace with “All other contact accomplished by sophisticated telepresence viewing systems”  – with the smartphone as the fore-runner of the technology.

So rather than goals I am going to go for ambitions, and I will change my mind frequently and give some of them up ere the month is out in the time-honoured tradition :)

No thanks. Unlike the rest of the country, I am lighter and richer in January ;)

No thanks. Unlike the rest of the country, I am lighter and richer in January 2016  than in December 2015 ;)

I don’t need tosh like this – the joy of owning my own time is that life is more chilled, and as a result I eat better and less. It also helps that a lot of what I eat comes from the ground, not from the industrial food system, for that I have Mrs Ermine and the Oak Tree farm to thank.

Chris with the squash harvest. There are no Clubcard points on this lot...

Chris with the squash harvest. There are no Clubcard points on this lot…

Unlike it appears the rest of the UK, I managed to lose weight in December, and have been for some time since retiring. It is within the realms of possibility that I may one day see the same weight as when I was 21, before I draw my main pension. This is an aspect of health that I persistently and continuously screwed up while working – retire and I discover the forces of natural equilibrium slowly shift to the right target. I have still never seen the inside of a stinky gym and I’m not going to. But I have the time to walk and bike to places within the town, I don’t usually drive unless I am going to leave the city limits or shift heavy stuff. It should be noted that average people like me 6 are way, way too lazy to lose weight through exercise. You can’t outrun a bad diet.

I want to do some hillwalking, to see prehistoric stones, to travel more slowly, to cycle in interesting places 7 in the UK.

Living frugally simplifies some decisions. I want to still live well and intentionally even if this simplification is lifted.

I’m not drinking homebrew again.

I want to learn morse code.

One thing I want to do in 2016 is to bust some of the media junk out of my life and to read less crap. Before the millennium people wrote books because they had a story to tell, and publishers were valuable gatekeepers because they had to take a financial risk to publish. Increasingly it seems people write ebooks because it’s seen as a way of making money, rather than telling a story, they trade websites because they want to buy the clicks and SEO without adding value. Movie companies trot out sequels and prequels because they’re safe. All in all the media and information space is trending towards arbitrage and extractive rentierism, and the quality of material online and the signal to noise ratio of search results is falling. I spent perhaps too much of the last three years, looking at the world through screens. It was cheap and I learned a lot, but I noticed an increase in clickbait and content farming and a material decline in quality.

I want to originate, and to co-operate with creative people. I want to tell stories because I think they are worth telling, and to create and shape things because I think they are interesting. And I am privileged enough to be rich enough that I don’t need to try and make a buck, I want to pursue the intellectual freedom to craft and leave my work to speak for itself.

man-with-savingsI want to leave the world of grubbing for money behind, it is coarsening a lot of discourse as it becomes always-on. In the gig economy work spreads like velveeta into all waking hours. I occasionally talk to people and see the hungriness in their eyes as they are trying to compute whether I am a networking opportunity. I can save them the trouble. I am an introvert, a retiree and of independent means. My networking value to the gig economy is bugger all, I’m not swimming in the same ocean.

I will engage if something interests me, but people find it hard to understand that it is difficult to incentivize an Ermine with money, despite it being the universal currency of making people do what you want. There are surprisingly few people of independent means in the modern world, despite that fact that Britain is a far richer country than we used to be. The ever-hungry money furnace of consumerism is making most of us poorer faster than human ingenuity and the accumulated capital and knowledge of generations is making us richer.

I want to preserve the sweetness of this freedom from the rat race, expressed well in this 1960s ad. For thirty years I was motivated by earning more, before I was challenged by events to ask myself why. The learning and the wisdom gained in the crucible was hard won, to change the ‘just because it’s what everybody else does’ to ‘I need enough, and enough more than enough to match my risk perception and view of the world, and then stop and get off this hamster wheel’. Work is overrated – even a frugal Ermine could live like a king of old.

On the flipside, I don’t do some of the things retirees do to fill their days. I don’t volunteer, because if you want a commitment from me you have to pay, to express some appreciation for the commitment. Otherwise you may get assistance from me, but on my own terms and with no strings. That’s just me, it’s not a criticism of other people living by different values.

I can pursue some interests I mothballed because they were expensive, travel, birdwatching, recording and photography 8. I may buy the oscilloscope I considered a while ago.  In general it’s yes to experiences and tools and to things I use to make and do things with other people, no to the beach and no to ‘this XYZ (mobile phone, gizmo, whatever) will transform your life’ – it never does.

I want focus. I want to do one thing at a time and pursue flow. I want to listen to music again as I did years ago – in the dark and on my hifi once it’s been repaired. I want to get off the modern trend towards doing three-and-a-half things badly rather than one thing well at any given time. I have trialled some of this with books – when I read books I read exclusively. And if the book bores me enough that I feel I want to do something else then after about five minutes I stop reading and decide this is not for me. I don’t listen to music or audiobooks when I am on my bike. I listen to the birds and try and be aware of the traffic around me, not immerse myself in a e-bubble. Consumerism being what it is, it is trying to turn this into the modern self-help religion of mindfulness. Two generations ago, parents and schoolteachers knew all about mindfulness with the two simple words – “pay attention” :)

I want to keep regular use of smartphones out of my life. They have their uses, but they should not become a vade mecum, despite everybody else feeling that way. If Steve Hilton can run a tech startup without a phone a retired Ermine can resist becoming a gormless zombie illuminated by the blue glow of the latest iPhandroid whatever. It is very very hard to originate anything on a smartphone, but it is a fabulous tool for passive consumption and tethering to the Hive Mind. If I want to take pictures I’ll use a camera. If I am recording I will use an audio recorder. I don’t want to tote a device that does sixty-seven things all at half cock. Jennifer Lawrence was absolutely right. You can’t live your whole life behind your phone, bro

That’ll do for ambitions for now. Across the lean years I learned how to bridge the gap with not enough, and now I want to learn to live well with enough, and live intentionally, and with grace and kindness. I am a different me from the mindless consumer, and I will handle the change slowly and carefully, because the world has become even more talented at invoking mindless consumerism, and presumably some of my inherent flaws are still latent. The challenge now is to spend wisely under my control, rather than being constrained by resources.

So yes, I want to spend more this year than last. But I want to claim the gift of the seven lean years, and spend it to enhance the quality of my life and that of those I care about, rather than to fill my house with consumer trash and my time with empty manufactured experiences. And I’d like to learn to do it with gratitude. Because for all the challenges and the doomsday razamatazz on the news, I live in a special time and place, where humanity has solved a lot of tough problems and it’s working on more. I want to tip my hat to the giants on whose shoulders we all stand, and not waste that gift in the time I have left.

Notes:

  1. this is conveniently and by design roughly the maximum rate I can draw keeping below the tax threshold, plus 25% from the PCLS
  2. obviously an unending economic crash would take me out like everyone else
  3. this is not strictly true, there are all sorts of bottom-feeding lowlife scum that lend money to people who don’t have incomes. I’m just not prepared to swim in that foetid pool
  4. note this is £50,000 on S&S ISAs not the higher £75,000 level for cash deposits. This is protection against your platform going bust, not against you making bad investment decisions
  5. the single person’s personal allowance was appallingly low in 1982, less than a quarter of a modest pay level, then tax on the rest at 30% plus NI at 9% means the youthful Ermine paying 39% was closer to a modern HRT taxpayer at 42% marginal than a BRT taxpayer at  32%, and paid that high tax on much more of his modest salary than the old Ermine, although that was distorted by pension contributions of the latter
  6. I deeply detest all sports and have done ever since school, and yet it is quite remarkable that a sport-loathing Ermine is in fact a lot less inactive than much of the adult population of the UK. Just nowhere near active enough to shift the needle on the dial regarding weight
  7. taking the bike most of the way there in my camper van ;)
  8. I actually turned a profit on the latter two over the last three years. But I was using fossil wealth in terms of gear bought while working, and was limited in opportunity by limitations in finance

a look back at 2015 and how does an Ermine return to the middle class?

It surprised me as a retiree to find a load of bored and squally children and far too many excitable hounds in a nearby rec on Monday, I wondered why at least some of these blighters aren’t back at work. Until UK Bank Holidays set me right, apparently they still had the day off. So it was time to ignore the great outdoors because there were too many people and mutts with cabin fever, and time to look at charts and find out this is the year the old internet died…

I have passed the point of no return and the soft surrender to gravity has begun

Decline and fall

Decline and fall of my networth (excludes housing NW and pension savings)

The rot is starting to show, bearing in mind I started in the heady days of 2009. I have not had a good 2015 in the markets – the effect of that on my networth is softened massively because there is over half of cash in this, and I have been lucky that inflation has been low in recent years, because only some of this cash is protected by ILSCs. That is because I have been coasting, and slowly my operating cash is dropping.  As a pensioner rather than retiree I will have a more predictable income than when working, although it is still subject to the vagaries of hyperinflation, financial destruction/repression and the usual force majeure of zombie apocalypse. It’s the loss of income from involuntary redundancy that is no longer a hazard for me, rather than there are no hazards.

The point of no return

The accumulated capital represented by this chart is not enough for me to live on, that much is clear. Many journeys reach a point of no return – originally an aviation term from where a departing aircraft has burned through too much fuel to return to the starting point. Networth is like fuel, it is a stock, not a flow, and interestingly enough the first metaphorical use of the term was in a novel about someone’s career.

There is a psychological symbolism in seeing that, a visceral change very much like the change in note that tells the traveller that the final approach has begun. Were this in fact my entire pension savings I don’t know how that would feel. It’s perfectly rational to expect switchbacks in networth on an equity-exposed pension fund, let’s face it, we are well into a long bull run, indeed soon into next tax year we will be into the second longest bull run in history and already pundits are lining up to tell us that it’s all different this time. If that isn’t a sign that there’s a mahoosive bear market limbering up in the wings then I don’t know what is. One of the things I have learned in 1999 is don’t buy in the endgame of bull markets, and I paid handsomely for that tuition. One of the other useful things I learned since is do buy in bear markets, building a HYP, originally to buffer me across this gap and repair my actuarially reduced pension. What I didn’t realise is that you can only really add to a HYP in bear markets. In bull markets like now people simply charge you too much for earnings. The gains from compounding are paltry enough at the long-run 4-5% average of the market. You won’t live long enough to see the wins if you start paying 33 times the future income stream or more.

The original premise behind the HYP held true

I have added a column in Excel to identify my original HYP shares and it is still yielding over 4%, the variation in numerical dividend year on year is low. Now some pundits are saying that dividends are on the hit list next year. So maybe this time next year is the time for a wobble in the HYP return.

I’ve taken a pasting because you have to look in strange places for bearishness these days – I’ve been bazookad in  Brazil, routed in Russia, mashed in mining, obliterated in oil, modestly eviscerated in emerging markets and gently gutted in gold. Indeed the one thing I seem to be learning in 2015 is that I am a really, really, rotten index investor – with a lot of this I accepted  the limits of my knowledge and went for indexing, but an indexing investor is still not passive investor, as Robert Kirby of the Coffee Can Portfolio told us in 1984. I should stick to HYP stockpicking 😉 But hey, that’s the nature of the markets eh, you gotta buy what’s hated, and boy are these sectors really hated at the moment. They were hated early ths year, they’re hated now. they’ll probably still be hated in a year’s time. People will probably have got over it in 5-10 years’ time. They’ll hate something else instead.

I’m sure there will be some generalised bearishness coming along. Because whatever people say it isn’t all different now. The markets were kind to me when I needed them to be, from when I first started charting a way out of work since 2009, because the steaming bull market acting on my investments stiffened the spine and fought the decline until now, but the decline is there, and it is all down to that Micawber fellow – fundamentally the Ermine lived beyond his means in 2015, and we all know you shouldn’t do that. Of course there is much debate about how long the integration time should be before you decide you are living dangerously. But when the annual lift of an ageing bull run is not enough to end the year better off than at the start then it’s safe to say the red lamp on the dashboard has at least come on.

I can be chilled about the beginning of the end because although it’s taken me six months to get absolutely nowhere with the enterprise, next tax year I can start the engines of a new income stream – first my DC savings to burn up and cast off before my main DB pension, taken at its normal retirement age in five years time. Neither of these depend on the stock market. Of course at the moment these are latent energy – you never really know that the engine opposing the pull towards the earth will fire up until you hear the whump and feel the fall begin to arrest. The way Hargreaves Lansdown and The Firm are dragging it out doesn’t give me a great feeling this will be an instant start, although I only want it to begin next tax year. Whether they will get their act together in three months is unknown. Certainly the takeaway is if you want to move AVCs to a SIPP, start at least 12 months ahead of when you want it to happen!

It’s harder to get a multistage journey to becoming a pensioner right, because it would be perfectly possible to run out of money in one part of the journey though overall you’d be good. My exile from the middle class was twice as long as it needed to be because until Osborne introduced a way for me to turn it into a three-stage plan, burning up my DC cash in front of my main pension drawn at NRA, it was a two stage plan, and the first stage would be cresting now. I would have had to switch my ISA into decumulation mode or drawn the pension early, thus losing some of it.

This dilemma will hold in some form for all early retirees, where early is defined as retiring before the age they can draw pension savings. They will have to balance ISA capital against pension capital. I have been lucky that I did not need to decumulate my ISA – I have never drawn a penny from it.

But while I know that I have reserves before I have to consider the dreaded Work word again, the feeling in the stomach as I watch the aggregate of working cash plus stock crest and the long slow fall has begun is not easy. I can know a thing but not feel it 😉

The symbolism of the turning point

So much written about personal finance is about the how of the finance, but it is also about the why, In this quiet period, I have also had time to think, and perhaps to hark back to the philosophy of M Scott Peck in The Road not Travelled. Although incidental to his main topic, he introduced the concept that living life well inevitably involves coming to terms with loss. We must surrender old forms in order to embrace the opportunities of change. I left the middle class and their consumer ways in 2009 because I had to. It turned out in principle I could earn enough capital to cross the gap from 52 to 55, and as the networth chart shows, this was the case. I had a lot of luck, it sure didn’t look like it was going to pan out that way at the start. Equities looked shot to bits in 2009, and there’s another dog that hasn’t barked yet, which is high levels of inflation. That absence let me stay in so much cash for so long and not be slaughtered. Unlike many, I am happy enough with cash if I find most of it still there when I come back for it. Turning an income on it is a bonus, not an assumed right. I am familiar with the difference between saving and investing, and don’t expect a return on savings. When I have a steady income again, I will run some of that cash down into the ISA.

I made it to the other side. I can entertain restoring some of  those consumer ways, but just like with TV, the seven lean years showed me a truth I hadn’t known, which is that much of the consumption consumed but delivered no value to me. That sort of consumption needs to remain junked. I saw a lot of new forms of it yesterday – zombies watching tiny screens blinking against the sun trying to stay in another world, while their bored kids and hounds yelled and yapped to try and gain some attention from the virtual world into the real world.

Another turning point – consumerism doesn’t always mean handing over money. There are new forms of consumption now, it can also mean handing over headspace.

Consumption is changing as a result of the smartphone – indeed the smartphone itself is in a class of its own as a consumer product, changed every two years as the world changes.

The smartphone itself is close to a universal product for humanity – the first 1 the tech industry has ever had. 

the smartphone is the new sun – Benedict Evans

The battle of advertising is not so much for money as also for attention. I confess that while I had observed the changes I have also been suckered by them too, until I read a couple of seminal pieces. Both are long-form, which is unusual in itself now. They read better in an armchair by the fire on a Kindle using something like Send To Reader (now that the useful part of it is free again :) ) than in glowing letters on a laptop with the screen set the wrong way for reading, or on a sucky smartphone display.

The first one is 2015 is the year the old internet finally died, which is of course a clickbaity sort of title. I’ve never been good at writing decent headlines – pretty much each and every one of mine on here sucks. 2

The article has the usual examples, the slightly off-the-wall thesis, but it also has truth and analysis, and it sold the concept to me. It also gelled with a few experiences I’ve had – I have been on the web in various forms since 1994, and webmaster and forum operator of a few online communities. Much of this fell away in the new millennium, initially with the rise of blogging, oddly enough, to which I came late 😉 Todd did me a big favour when he wrote

The internet has made it clear that the kinds of things that people want to read are sort of an endless collection of what’s cool.

because I realised what started to really piss me off about Facebook as a reader, to the extent that I don’t use it in any big way now other than to receive messages from a few people who only use that medium. I could live with the cat pictures. I can live with the listicles, because I have finally gotten it through my fat head that is a headlines starts with “The 5,10, 7, however many things you need to know about” then I don’t need to know. Ever. Either my general education is that much better than the sort of people/machines that generate listicles or I am just an arrogant sonofabitch and think this is the case. I have saved a lot of three-minute slices of life that I will never live again by getting that straight.

Although I’d vented in Facebook becomes Evil, the rant was about the ways it was evil – the symptoms and the cause, but not the mechanism.  Todd’s sentence sums up the fundamental problem. And while it isn’t as bad in me as in many people, the evil lies within, and the search for novelty and distraction rings in resonance to the tinkling siren song from without.

Todd hat-tipped a deeper article by Hossein Derakhshan, a dude who apparently has done time for what he’s blogged about in an earlier life. One of the things about consumerism is its insidious nature – we don’t often get an opportunity to step outside the stream for a while. As The Atlantic put it

The Stream represents the triumph of reverse-chronology, where importance—above-the-foldness—is based exclusively on nowness.

There are great reasons for why The Stream triumphed. In a world of infinite variety, it’s difficult to categorize or even find, especially before a thing has been linked. So time, newness, began to stand in for many other things. And now the Internet’s media landscape is like a never-ending store, where everything is free. No matter how hard you sprint for the horizon, it keeps receding. There is always something more. 

And you know what? I was shit-for-brains and people had to spell it out for me, because this all happened slowly. Boiling of frogs and all that. The evidence lies all around us in the twisted wreckage of the erstwhile forums and communities that once existed, but are no longer, replaced by Facebook groups and the like of people beating their chests and going Look at Me. No community around a forum that I have been a part of has ever improved by moving to Facebook, because Facebook brings out the narcissist in us all by making all about us. It does so cleverly. After all, you may decide this blog is all about the narcissist in me, let’s face it the first person singular is everywhere, that’s what a blog is, FFS. But if I bore you then you stop reading. I won’t come after you and jam my prognostications in your face in a timeline of “New In –  Read This” In forums and on Usenet you used to be able to killfile/block people whose inanities sucked, and while you’d still see the background radiation of other people’s replies it worked okay. But Facebook is all about you, and each and every you, and it just seems to trash the level of discourse in any topic to become trivia and drivel. Maybe it’s the company I keep 😉 None of my ex-college pals are on Facebook, so the dumb finger of dumbness does sort of point at me. Why do I know so may people who only use Facebook messaging for communication – this is why I still have Facebook, though I use email to receive and send messages.

I guess if you do time in a Tehran jail you get to step outside the Stream for a while, six years until the bird of luck sat on Derakshan’s shoulder and he was freed. Sparked up his laptop, brave fellow, and started to write, and posted to Facebook, and then went WTF – what is this black hole – because in the six years he had been out of the loop an army of social media companies had zombified the hyperlink – what Derakshan  called the currency of the web.

But hyperlinks aren’t just the skeleton of the web: They are its eyes, a path to its soul. And a blind webpage, one without hyperlinks, can’t look or gaze at another webpage — and this has serious consequences for the dynamics of power on the web.

More or less, all theorists have thought of gaze in relation to power, and mostly in a negative sense: the gazer strips the gazed and turns her into a powerless object, devoid of intelligence or agency. But in the world of webpages, gaze functions differently: It is more empowering. […]

On the other hand, the most powerful web pages are those that have many eyes upon them. Just like celebrities who draw a kind of power from the millions of human eyes gazing at them any given time, web pages can capture and distribute their power through hyperlinks.

But apps like Instagram are blind — or almost blind. Their gaze goes nowhere except inwards, reluctant to transfer any of their vast powers to others, leading them into quiet deaths. The consequence is that web pages outside social media are dying.

Now I do appreciate the irony of perhaps being part of the problem, although at least I don’t knowingly force myself into the ticker-tape of the window to your world that is Facebook (or twitter or whatever your virtual poison is). I’m not berating you, anyway. I am berating myself, because 2015 was not just the year the old internet died, but a year where I read too much shit and failed to stop myself. Well, other than stopping Facebook, which was beginning to make me despair of the pedestrian nature of the human condition. We will know when Artificial Intelligence has finally prevailed if Facebook can ever understand the simple instruction

Don’t ever show me another baby picture. While you’re at it, never show me a picture with a mutt in it. And go easy on the cats, particularly if there’s a caption.

A half-decent butler could do that without breaking a sweat. WTF is this so hard for computers – after all they can thrash us at chess and people keep telling us how smart they are getting? Until there’s a great big button on Facebook NO MORE BABY PICTURES, GEDDIT! 3 we will know that AI is remains a technology in the still working on it class.

Now it’s entirely possible that this post is simply the bitter and twisted rantings of a misanthropic git after too much post-Christmas cheer. The world has always had change – in former times agitprop, fanzines and underground knowledge were done by mimeographs and spirit duplicators, then we had economical photocopying, then somebody invented the word processor with the glacial and screaming progress of a dot-matrix printer, then somebody invented the laser printer, and in 1992 Berners Lee came up with a practical implementation of hypertext at the same time as modems got faster than the speed you can read, and we have been through all these changes but the nature of human storytelling hasn’t changed much since prehistory. The problem we are generating, however, is that we used to tell stories to, well, tell a story – the message trumped the medium.

The medium and the message are becoming one, at the cost of the message

The noise to signal ratio is rising, and Google is losing the fight. Actually Google may not be losing the fight from their POV but because I block ads I don’t see their success 😉

The Internet has been awesome for all sorts of engineering. In the early part of my career every lab had to have a massive set of integrated circuit databooks that took up half a bench just so you could get to wire the darn things up the right way and know what they could and could not do. Now you just Google the part number and PDF and you’re all set. I have only ever formally learned two computer languages (both as a postgraduate) – Modula-2 and Pascal. Some I learned from books, but nearly all the internetty ones, Perl, PHP, C, C++, Java, Javascript, Visual Basic, c#, various forms of SQL were learned off the internet through search engines and other people’s websites. Sometimes these were confirmed in formal training afterwards.

And yet this is now breaking down, because of the dramatic increase in misinformation. I feel this greatest in electronics – not only do patient folks have to try and do the class assignments of half of Asia’s EE students, where the questions are never couched in the form of “how do I go about this”.

It getting increasingly hard to find authoritative secondary sources on things technical on the net, what with the ranks of eager but uneducated makers 4 I had a board which had a common maker chip, an Arduino chip on it along with a radio modem. I wanted to know an easy way to reset the blighter 5 It took a long time to become reasonably convinced that a safe way to do that is ground reset through a capacitor, and I ran into a wall of misinformation about whether the capacitor was necessary, optional or unnecessary. And that’s because the X Files tagline may well be right. The truth is out there. But the indexing function that lets you find it is beginning to fail, because the essential currency of the hyperlink is being subsumed into the currency of the ever flowing stream. As an example, there are links enough from here to Monevator, because in general he is a reliable source and explains stuff clearly. While he is generous with his links, I would imagine there are fewer the other way, which is entirely correct, because not only is he more reliable, he is more focused and more consistent. In that way Google can know the relative worth. At times I might post three times as many articles as Monevator, and the Stream will push them higher. But the Stream will not be right. Google will be, in general, once they have graded out the lowlife trying to game the system.

The Stream did not wane.

I have the advantage of two years of hindsight on The Atlantic, so I know they were wrong when they said.

Because I think it might be why 2013 is seen as the year the stream started to wane.

It became a torrential flood, because it matched the limitations of the smartphone web and fed a new wave of consumerism, vapid electronic gizmos like Fitbit that give people the feeling of control as they are tracked. Don’t get me wrong – I am not inherently against this, indeed one of the things I may do with my new found affluence is camp in some of the more attractive parts of the UK and yomp up some of the more modest hills and go track myself and others on the radio because I can and it is a slight challenge.

But to be tracked everywhere, and heck to be in sold to everywhere? That’s nuts to me, though everyone else seems to think it a great thing. I like the interstitial times, though my perspective is atypical because pretty much all my travelling is elective rather than the commuter grind now.

Ending a sabbatical from the middle class

I am glad I came across this concept of the changes in the Internet in the dog days of 2015, where reflection and observation are easy. Yes, as a retiree I am not bound by the daily grind, but pace of the collective consciousness slows for a little while, it is easier to take on new ideas. In the months to come I will have largely solved the problem of personal finance, and my seven-year sabbatical from the middle class will draw to an end. I could, though don’t have to, rejoin the melee. Hopefully wiser, and less exposed to the temptations. But in a much fainter echo of Derakshan’s exile, I am like the Christians of his story.

Seven years of exile is a long time – a tenth of my lifetime if it is typical, so the unwritten assumptions many people make I will not share because the continuum has been broken. I will also not share many of the values, and in some areas there will be what looks like asceticism, because I have seen that while everybody spends on some things they don’t deliver value for me. I may be in that world I will not be of it. Seven years of living differently changes a fellow. There are some things that people do easily and trivially without thinking that I would find it really hard to do. These range from watching TV to darkening the threshold of a high street chain coffee shop on my own. I made the exception for my mother, but on my own I would struggle to open my wallet at the till. Not because there wouldn’t be enough money in it, but because of the voice in the back of my head hollering “You don’t even like extra milky coffee FFS. Don’t spend money on shit that won’t deliver value for you, even if the sum is trivial”. I struggled to find anything fit to eat in Westfield, Stratford – because it was all overpriced junk, not because I had insufficient cash in my wallet.

Even in everyday areas I am different, I still wash dirty crockery by hand, for instance, which is considered hair-shirt nowadays. In 2009 most people but not everyone I knew had dishwashers. My ex-second-line manager took a double-take that there were such primitive poverty-stricken heathens among his employees. David Cain from Raptitude who live a mindful and ascetic life considered it a rad experiment. This is a fellow who can live on powdered MREs otherwise known as Soylent, FFS. A young couple we know who go everywhere on push-bikes, don’t possess a car for ethical reasons and even use trains to go places in Britain needed a dishwasher enough to tolerate the plumbing as a major trip-hazard on the way to the bog. I like their style, and they got it secondhand for £25.

There are many “essential” accoutrements for gracious affluent living that I just don’t have. I may adopt some of them again. I will get my hi-fi power amplifier repaired, because I have missed that, but not enough to rustle up the hundreds of pounds to get the shorted transformer fixed. At least the magic smoke didn’t escape through the speakers. I will experiment with some different ways of travel, though I will probably still eschew flying unless I can use flexibility to fill return legs on private charter. It is low-cost flying, or more the sort of flyers low cost flying attracts that I want to avoid, and while I could afford business class for the amount of flying I would do, it doesn’t get you far enough from some sorts of botheration. I will also investigate if this is a feature of British low-cost airlines and airports – when I used to travel extensively for business I observed the general standard of behaviour in other European airports was much better than in the UK. But air travel was much dearer than then it is now – a shorthaul flight cost about £400 in today’s terms. I would rather pay £400 each way and not have to share with some of the fellow-travellers on airlines now 😉

I will return to no peer-group, no Joneses to keep up with. Slightly to my shame in my working life I did spend some money on things to keep up appearances where they weren’t things I particularly cared about. I will try to avoid that sort of thing.

Like Derakshan I also return to a different electronic world. The one I left in 2009 was one which hadn’t been balkanised by platforms – you could reach most people by either phone/text or email. Now some people never do email, just Facebook messaging. Some only use whatsapp. Some are SMS mavens. Some use all sorts. I don’t really know what to do with this sort of patchwork. Perhaps I am being overtaken by change, and will always be a stranger in a strange land from now on.

Sometimes I think maybe I’m becoming too strict as I age. Maybe this is all a natural evolution of a technology. But I can’t close my eyes to what’s happening: a loss of intellectual power and diversity.

Derakshan

We fought so hard to free ourselves from the chains of walled gardens like AOL in the 1990s, then 20 years later we embrace the social media walled garden and surrender the open web.

Derakshan writes intelligently about the how and why of what is happening from both a technical standpoint and the softer political balance-of-power standpoint. I guess six years bird gives you time to think things through.

In the past, the web was powerful and serious enough to land me in jail. Today it feels like little more than entertainment. So much that even Iran doesn’t take some – Instagram, for instance – serious enough to block.

Derakshan

While he may feel the decline and fall harder – after all it was a big part of his life and the world is full of actors mourning the closing of the final curtain, he has a point – we are drifting towards the bread and circuses end of the spectrum.

The Stream is a hazard to me, because I don’t understand it, didn’t grow up with it, it is rammed to the gills with advertising payload and manipulative shit to get me to spend money on worthless shit, to create FOMO in me. How do I take on this new world of the Stream? At the moment, having recognised the problem, I am mindful to not take it on at all. It looks one-sided to me – a mechanism to pump more and more incentives to spend on ephemeral consumption, and also to find more and more about how I work. Ad-block plus (and some other plugin) blocks ads on social media – it was a genuine surprise to me when I saw how ad-infested Facebook was. But with apps there is nowhere to hide from ads, though I may be able to block the sources with an access control list on the wifi at home. My motives are increasingly at variance with the values of the Stream.

I write this blog because I find the discourse with and among commenters interesting and it is good to play with ideas with interesting people. I do have ads, but I would hope you are bright enough to use ad-block plus if you find it bothersome. I don’t get hung up on reach or clicks or whatever – interesting discourse is what I get out of it. I don’t know how people find this – I presume by the old currency of the hyperlink. Hopefully I am of some service to you as readers by occasionally making you think, or laugh, or come across something different. It all sounds so terribly old-fashioned compared to the Stream. I don’t have any social media buttons on here. One of the reasons is because it once got me canned for being a CPU resource hog, but when that was resolved I asked myself what’s the point? I am not a social media maven, I don’t give a toss, and I can afford not to give a toss. If the world gets bored with me then so be it, I will have ceased to add value, time to move on.

Some things I can do in 2016:

I can try and live intentionally when it comes to getting and consuming information. I have reached an uneasy truce with facebook (messaging only). I have mastered the termination of the listicle, and I was never that drawn to video or podcasts as information sources because they are linear and the data rate is execrably slow. I want to read and see diagrams to learn how something works, don’t tell me or show me. The world is, however, drifting much more to a video presentation form of that. There is only one thing in the world I have come across that needed video to educate me, and that was the studio over-under method of coiling cables so they don’t end up a tangled mess next time

Everything else is writing done with the wrong medium IMO 😉

I need to work the heck out what the Stream is advertising to me and reduce my exposure, because I am pretty damn sure I am not interested. At the moment ad-block plus blocks a lot of this crap, but there is an arms race beginning between the admen and the blocking. At the moment if a site does say we won’t play unless you turn your ad blocker off I simply go “f*ck you” and am off. I’m not playing that game.

I don’t pay for what I can’t touch.

I am, of course, part of the trouble. The Internet taught me a simple maxim, which I have applied when it comes to information. Don’t pay for something you can’t touch. I don’t buy ebooks, I don’t buy virtual digital media. When I look at my CDs I see I used to buy a lot of media, particularly books and CDs. I used to buy the paper every so often, I never pay for the electronic version. So while I have bitched at length about how vapid the ephemeral Web is now, I was part of the execution squad, and now I look at the mess and wonder if I really got what I wanted. I got the price down, but I seem to have destroyed the value. At least I can say it wasn’t just me, I wasn’t there most of the time and I certainly wasn’t the only one.

Maybe I should favour print again – I include Kindle books in that and library ebooks. I read a few books over the last couple of weeks, shite fiction, but at least there was the beginning, the narrative and the end. It’s now much easier to borrow ebooks from the library. Once I have repaired the amplifier, then perhaps I will buy music again – secondhand CDs  are ridiculously cheap nowadays, and I can download a oddball selection of material as mp3s from the library.

The not paying for what I can’t touch rule saves me from a lot of consumerism. A lot is presented in terms of subscriptions, which I absolutely do not touch at all, with a single exception for the RSPB, so that’s a whole class of consumer fail eliminated. Netflix, Sky TV, Spotify, mobile phone subscriptions, the TV licence.

So I really don’t know what I will do on returning to the disposable income of the middle class. Perhaps the wilderness changed me, and I can never go back. Maybe that is my message for fellow FI seekers. The road is long, and narrow with a bottomless chasm on either side. Once you have spent time in a place like that, you will never be the same when it meets the wide road of consumerism and dissipation again, because you were forced on your own resources and to ask yourself ‘what do you stand for, where are you going, whom do you serve, who do you trust and what do you want’. The soft blandishments of unthinking consumerism just don’t appeal after you have sought the answer to some of those.

But enough of that negativity – what will I be prepared to pay for? Well, decent restaurant meals, though not too often due to hedonic adaptation, perhaps better red wine and eternal security from the ravages of homebrew in all its forms. Decent tools, things I can make stuff with. Replacement walking boots. Parts to experiment with. Time in the outdoors in places interesting creatures may occupy. Sojourns at Congham Hall. Slow travel. Maybe bike rides and tea rooms – chain coffee sucks but afternoon tea in a non-chain is okay. I can get my bike in my camper van – I am not as hard as Mr Z’s 200 miles a month 😉

While some of it is middle class consumerism, I will get better value, because I took that narrow road. I learned that I didn’t miss chain coffee shops, movies, and loads of frippery. That can stay put.

And above all, I’m not going to move an inch until H&L has sorted their crap out. I want to feel the rumble of that second stage finance booster up and running before I open any of this consumerism out. Because nobody, but nobody, got anywhere good in personal  finance ignoring that Micawber fellow.

Notes:

  1. Funny, I thought it was fire, but what the hell.
  2. The art of writing a headline is the art of an editor, and because I am not a professional writer inasmuch as while I have earned thousands of pounds writing I have never lived off it exclusively. It’s particularly bad with blogging I have to make the headline first; the post too easily ends up drifting into something different. I did try reading a few articles on how to get better at this, but either I inherently have no talent for it or I just can’t get enough distance from the post in a day or so.
  3. I don’t have anything against babies, I was one myself I hear. But in a true wonder of evolutionary development while they are stupendously fascinating to anybody genetically related to them, they get a bit samey in a Facebook feed after a while particularly if you don’t even know the happy parents. What is said/can be said about a baby is very limited in scope, and the supply of  piss-poor smartphone baby pictures is fecund. Whole Facebook galleries of them, sitting in server farms in the frozen wastes of the North with trucks backing up changing out the RAID hard disks that fail under the load of keeping this ready for when the world runs dangerously low on baby pictures. Thank God we invented digital photography when we did, because we would be living in a world devoid of silver if this nascent demand had been addressed with film. As for bodily functions, the Bard probably took it as far as necessary in All the World’s a Stage with mewling and puking. It gets into TMI after that…
  4. I’m not saying ‘makers’ are dumb – the vast majority of them are sharp enough. The tragedy is that  they are too busy making stuff to write about it, although one who does write cogently and where you can never go wrong with is ladyada
  5. Every microprocessor since Intel’s 4004 in 1971 has a reset pin. Atmel tell you the reset is pin 1 in the ATmega328 datasheet. However, the Arduino has a bootloader so you can program it using itself. Sometimes things like that mean that you could bugger it up royally if you do something funky with the regular reset pin
23 Dec 2015, 4:52pm
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  • A midwinter mystery of the missing TV ads

    Midwinter is a good time to have a celebration of the impending rejuvenation of the Oak King at the winter solstice, in particular to have a party, a bonfire and afterwards to head off into town for a few more drinks, ‘cos it starts to get cold when the fire dies down and the sun’s gone down, and fire vodka/krupnik is not enough to fight that.

    our Winter Solstice bonfire

    our Winter Solstice bonfire

    So I get talking to a fellow customer at the bar who was after making small talk, and one of the things about small talk with strangers is that you have to find common experiences, and here I discovered one of the keys to early retirement has to be living differently. When the subject of TV came up I had to say I don’t know anything about that, because I don’t have a TV. Now this was interpreted as I don’t have a TV to avoid paying the TV Licence fee, i.e. that I stream online but in fact in my case I don’t have a TV because I don’t watch TV in any significant way – days and weeks will pass when I don’t watch TV, on the internet or catch-up or whatever.

    And this did not compute, indeed I must have been an odd conversational partner because when that second stalwart topic came up, what did I do the concept of being retired also was atypical, because he felt I looked too young to be out of the rat race. I did pass some time by observing I had worked for The Firm which he guessed right – there is an oddball look to the inmates of the erstwhile research facility in an otherwise normal town. I would hazard a guess he worked for The Firm but the drinks showed up at that stage so it was time to bid him a Merry Christmas and get back to the serious business in hand. I had linked the two however for him – one of the reasons I don’t watch TV is because I don’t want to see advertising. You quite effortlessly buy less consumer shit if you don’t see ads for it. If I want something to do a job  I will go out on Google and search for it, and will find plenty enough sellers and as much information as I could wish for. Until then I don’t give a toss what new stuff is out there for sale. And busting TV out of my life gets rid of a lot of ads. Respect your enemy. It’s why I use ad-blockers too on the web.

    Now I’m not so extreme as to say having no TV is cost-free – there is undoubtedly lots of good stuff on TV, and I don’t get to see that. But on the upside I get a lot of my time back, to think, to make stuff, to read, to kick out the odd post here. I’d say the way to retire early well is to be curious in all things, to make and fix rather than consume, and just generally get headspace. The two worst things about the way work became for me just before the end were the chronic stress and the general busyness it imposed, I was turning into a zombie for the lack of headspace to step back and ask myself where I wanted to go in life. I didn’t have time to watch TV when I was working and I still don’t have time to watch TV, because of the ads and because the good stuff to shite ratio is not good enough for me. Yes, I save £140 a year of the TV licence, but that isn’t a particularly big deal. And of course I don’t get to pay Sky TV £50 every month, which would be a big deal. For sure, there will be all sorts of things I don’t hear about that I might want to buy, but what I don’t know about doesn’t trouble me 😉

    But it’s clearly odd, and atypical enough to confound two common topics of conversation. I don’t mind looking odd, and indeed I think he was still mystified about what looked to him to be people too young to be retired being retired. Which kind of reminds me of the quote that to retire early you have to pass on the blandishments of consumerism and stand out like a celibate monk in a brothel. I was clearly not on the breadline and good for a decent round of drinks, but the jump from not watching TV ads making it easier to avoid spending money on crap just didn’t add up for him.

    But what the hell. I had a good time with my fellow solstice celebrants, and a fellow resident of the town saw a little bit of how to take a road not generally travelled.

     

    27 Nov 2015, 12:01am
    living intentionally
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  • Black Friday is a good day to live intentionally

    1511-blackfriday

    There’s a massive event happening today, the Torygraph has the when and where all taped

    The biggest shopping day of the year is almost upon us, so what and when is Black Friday, and how you can get your hands on the best deals and discounts? It’s here! The shopping extravaganza takes place the day after Thanksgiving, which is the fourth Thursday in November. This year, Black Friday falls on November 27.

    People are going to be fighting each other over TVs and similar artificially created scarcity. The best deals are to be had when we ignore this artifice of marketing sleazebags to get us all to buy stuff we don’t need to impress people we don’t like with money we don’t have 1.

    Even 20% off something you 100% didn’t need before you saw the ad is 100% too much money, not 80%. Heck, even if you did need/want it buying into the concept of 20% off to buy it at a time of their choosing rather than your choosing is giving precious headspace to the ad-men, they got a hook into your head. They wouldn’t do it if they didn’t expect to get more of a win out of you.

    So let’s keep it real, today, what we need is buy nothing day. Because we’re all running out of time, 24 hours every day. Even if you like working, there’s no dignity in working to be a puppet on a string to someone else’s agenda.

    I learned something in the seven lean years since the start of my journey to financial independence that began in February 2009.

    I learned what enough looks like

    And once you know what enough looks like, you don’t need to dance at the end of a string because somebody wants you to Buy It Now. No. If I want something I will damn well buy it at a time and place of my choosing. And I am rich enough to be able to ignore the desperate blandishments, because once you know what enough looks like 20% off some bauble is lost in the noise. It’s only when you are spending 110% of your income that this becomes a deal-maker.

    Advertising is the mind-killer. Advertising is the little-death that brings total obliteration.  I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. When the advertising has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

    Litany against advertising riffed off Frank Herbert’s Dune

     

    Notes:

    1. I’m aware of the irony of using pop culture funded by advertising against advertising. There are some pretty slick threads on Tyler Durden and his band of fellow fight clubbers, product placement at work and all that. What the hell – all’s fair in love and war

    A quick visit to the country of the middle class at the Aldeburgh Food and Drink Festival

    I never really gained the understanding of why I spent badly, because I reduced spending to achieve an externalised goal, leaving work early. Doing that projects all the energy into the how, rather than the why, and the how is easy – if you don’t need it, don’t buy it.The symptoms of excess consumerism weren’t terrible in my case either  -I didn’t borrow to buy consumer goods and managed to pay down my mortgage to the last £1000 after 20 years, even while spending like a typical consumer sucka 1. In comparison, for instance, blondeonabudget discovered some quite deep truths about why she was spending on consumer goods in a post about decluttering and another one about changing habits, rather than, say, discharging a decent wodge of consumer debt.

    I just fought the symptoms so my experience is that once you’ve broken the habit, it doesn’t reoccur. Or maybe the YMOYL technique of qualifying how much work you have to do to pay for this gewgaw was enough. Certainly I can’t imagine any consumer goods being worth enough to me to consider working again to buy them! But I now have the privilege of standing on the outside looking in, rather than standing on the inside trying to imagine what being outside the consumerism bubble is like.

    Food is a good place to investigate hedonic adaptation

    OTOH I do want to understand hedonic adaptation and perhaps use it right as I may make more frequent excursions to the country of greater hedonic spending, but this time living more intentionally. And yeah, it is a Rich People’s Problem just like the whole idea of early retirement is 😉

    I believe I can derive much more enhancement of quality of life from spending a little bit on a wider range of experiences taking care to repeat infrequently. The trouble is doing that needs time and reflection – parameters I was short of while working, and I suspect a lot of products are sold in order to address a short-term problem without standing back and taking a systems approach – why am I having a problem with this? The regimented rhythm of the wage-slave’s year needs quick fixes now and is not conducive to introspection.

    Introspection goes against how many things are marketed – of course company X wants you to consume as much of their stuff as possible, and things like subscriptions, bulk discounts and the like are incentives to do more of that. Food is, in many ways, a classic case – there is the short-term gustatory sensation and a longer-term feedback mechanism that you have had enough. To a first approximation in natural foods these are balanced within the range of human metabolism, but a lot of industrially produced foods are either lacking in parts or actively designed to be moreish 2 so people wolf them down consuming more before the ‘I’ve had enough’ feedback loop kicks in. In Michael Pollan’s book In Defence Of Food 3 , he boiled the solution of how to get this right into a few key statements –

    Eat food, not too much, mostly plants.

     

    • Don’t eat anything your great grandmother wouldn’t recognize as food.
    • Don’t eat anything with more than five ingredients, or ingredients you can’t pronounce.
    • Don’t eat anything that won’t eventually rot.

    The latter is interesting – it’s quite disturbing how long supermarket tomatoes, bread and milk last now. If you think about it, you are a long tube deriving power from a controlled anaerobic rotting process going on inside you, this does seem to be running against the end use. 4

    You’d do okay on Pollan’s criteria at the Aldeburgh Food festival :) Now there is a materialist-rationalist counter to this.

    Description is important, but no distinction should be sacred. Michael Pollan’s “real foods” are like Sarah Palin’s “real americans”. It’s good to have standards, and tastes, but labels can be problematic. More practically, our old foods can’t really compete today. They are too expensive, inconvenient, and bland for most consumers. If we want people to be healthier we’re going to have to beat fast food at its own game.

    The general approach is to establish that it takes about 3kWh to run a human being for a day 5 and while we await science delivering us a mechanism whereby we can just plug ourselves into the wall socket to recharge overnight 6, there is a technically decent interim solution called Soylent (hopefully not yet available in green) – from its creator

    For its nutrition Soylent 2.0 is perhaps the most ecologically efficient food ever created. You may think me smug but I and many other people have poured their lives into creating something amazing and we have every right to be proud of it.

    For all I know in the megacities of the future there will be a highly interconnected system with some equivalent of Soylent piped in the same way as we run water and gas. That’s for future generations to sort out if this is what being human means. The falling resilience of such interconnected systems also worries me, in the same way as if some clever computer virus corrupted the Internet infrastructure I am not sure we would have the communications or skills left to black start it from a sea of disconnected islands.

    I’m with Pollan here. I can live with the irrationality of old-fashioned eating for the better ride, although if I were a student I might investigate Soylent as a way to save money and stop flatmates pinching my food from the fridge 😉

    Not everything about hedonic adaptation involves spending money. Many commercially grown foods either never had any taste to start with 7or the taste fades rapidly down the long supply chains – sweetcorn for instance fades in flavour after half an hour, never mind the two days Tesco think of as fresh. Take strawberries, for instance – they use to taste of something in the 1970s but I don’t bother with them any more because while they look much better now than they used to they taste of very little. However, I could adapt to this by growing them. Growing things helps with the hedonic adaptation along the time axis too – it’s called eating with the seasons.

     

     

    Snape Maltings on a sunny Suffolk day

    Snape Maltings on a sunny Suffolk day

    I was reminded of this when  went to the Aldeburgh Food and Drink Festival, to take a look around what people are doing, pick up some ideas about how the middle class 8 think about food, because I have an interest in an operation that occasionally sells to this demographic, and, what the heck, it was a nice day.I managed to avoid paying the £8 full price too, because I was too tight for that 9. We went early on Sunday, and it’s a shame I didn’t get into the groove fast enough to record some of the crowd hubbub, there were certainly a lot of very posh accents early on :)

    stall

    The food looked and smelled good, and it was interesting to observe the wide range of stuff you can grow in a sunny eastern outpost of Britain – and it doesn’t have to all look like fields of ripening grain.

    Sutton Hoo chickens

    Sutton Hoo chickens – they do taste better than industrial chicken, though they tend to be on the large side for two people

    A lot of this was about the story as much as the product. Now in a country where we’ve been eating horsemeat masquerading as beef for long stretches of time this is no bad thing, and indeed the story of a lot of factory farming is rarely told because it’s nasty. But it reminds me that an awful lot of consumerism is about the story – and when you’re dealing with food then the adman’s admonition to “sell the sizzle, not the steak” is particularly stark

    Tim Hayward selling the sizzle

    Tim Hayward selling the sizzle – he has a book out, but this is a pretty nice example of flambe in action

    There’s an interesting observation that the reasons you don’t buy something can be broken down into

    People’s objections to a purchase can essentially be narrowed down into 4 main groupings: No need, No time, No money, No trust.

    The aim of getting better at personal finance through spending less is to shift the baseline in the no need and no trust axes a long way off most consumers’ settings. I got out of the show without buying anything, though I did consume a few items. But I did enjoy listening to the stories – it is possible to break the link between the story and the action. I went as flâneur – to people-watch, to observe, and yes, to enjoy a few stories. There is entertainment to be had in some retail spaces and trade fairs without having to buy anything :)

    In fairness I should add that I was treated to a coffee and half of this fine platter from Lane Farm by Mrs Ermine who was doing some networking here.

    some of Lane Farm's fine salami

    some of Lane Farm’s fine salami

    I went along for the ride, and also to go as a tourist to the Land of Middle Class and their fancy ways. Some of them do add to a better experience, and I am considering what I will change when I get hold of my own pension money. I’m not totally averse to some food frippery – I armed myself with some Lane Farms salami earlier this year when I went on a week-long course at a joint where the catering was vegetarian from a lowest-common-denominator angle rather than a moral stance 10. And I opined that paying £600 on one restaurant meal was perhaps a better thing to do than get a year’s worth of weekly Mickey D’s in the hedonism department.

    Fennel - looks gorgeous but tastes dire IMO, and I'm not that keen on the smell, either

    Fennel – looks gorgeous but tastes dire IMO, and I’m not that keen on the smell, either.

    And here is  a different approach to frugality – you do not have to use a consumer product, service or experience for its intended purpose. One of the joys of retirement is watching other people and learning about new things. I’m not going to use any of the things I learned here – among others I learned that older beef apparently tastes better, that it is possible to put fennel in a dish and not have it taste revolting  – Tim Hayward managed. It’s a funny old world, and sometimes it’s just good to lend an ear to an interesting narrative told by a fellow who can spin a good yarn. Hayward introduced me to the concept of the bum sandwich, another snippet of information I’ll never use but slightly enriched my life.

    I was tickled by Tim Hayward’s apparent surprise that there are people from Cambridge who have weekend retreats on the Suffolk coast. The coast gets some of its charm by the very fact that communications start to thin out as the A12 ceases being a dual carriageway after Wickham Market. There’s no big source of real employment for ordinary people, it’s too far from London and Cambridge to commute, so tourism and vacation homes are going to abound. I confess I had my Hayward moment when I spied this stall

    Handmade treats for your hound from a canine bakery

    Handmade treats for your hound from a truly Artisan bakery, Patisserie and Chocolatier. You read it here first!

    It’s good to know that there’s still a lot of money about, though it’s perhaps not so good to know that people’s brains fall out into such a big wet mess on the floor when it comes to anthropomorphising their precious hounds.

    Luxury hand made dog treats

    It’s just so wrong, in so many ways. When you see a dog eating, it’s utilitarian snarfing, not for nothing is it called wolfing something down. You can get pink “Good Girl” chocolates 11 or blue “Good Boy” ones at 145g for £10.80. These are marketed to the emotional needs of the owner rather than the nutritional needs of the mutt, because dogs have dichromatic vision with no red-green discrimination, they don’t have the long cultural tradition of pink for she and blue for he, and 145g of stuff ain’t gonna touch the flippin’ sides, guys! But good luck to Barkers, if they can turn such muppetry into a profit.

    I enjoyed my package tour to the Land of the Middle Class – travel broadens the mind, and you can travel in many more ways than distance.

    Notes:

    1. You can still be a consumer sucka even if you live within your means and in budget. The symptoms are more subtle than mahoosive debt piling up all around you – you simply get to sell a bigger proportion of your life to The Man than you need to by working longer
    2. often by the addition of umami flavourings, sugar and/or salt
    3. I read Pollan’s book as a dead tree variant borrowed from the library. It’s of slight concern to me that apparently the e-version is Word-Wise enabled to explain the long words to the literately-challenged – it’s a book about food, FFS, not quantum physics or aetiology
    4. Some packaging is there to counter aerobic decomposition – nitrogen purging, vacuum packing and the like which is probably okay.
    5. at 2,500 kCal daily and converting to kWh – it surprised me that a human being is a greater power drain than a fridge-freezer
    6. In fairness to Rhinehart of Soylent fame, he doesn’t really approve of AC current either, alleging the US power grid to be about 25% efficient
    7. plants used to work in symbiosis with microbial action in the soil to make nutrients plant-available. As we switched to industrial farming from the 1950s to 1970s this changed, since industrial farming doesn’t bother with that, adding macronutrients as salts to the soil, replacing and indeed impairing the microbial action. Coincidentally the mineral content of our fruit and veg has been falling ever since the 1950s, as shown by the longitudinal food compositions studies of McCance and Widdowson eg this paper
    8. there was a fair range of people there, but let’s face it, we are talking middle class in the Daily Telegraph sense of the word rather than the logical US version of the term
    9. Mrs Ermine subsidised the ticket in return for the ride there of about 40 mi round-trip, I didn’t jump over the fence
    10. in contrast some places are vegan from a religious or ethical stance, and it would be rude to abuse their hospitality by consuming meat there – and after all there are taxis and towns with restaurants ;)
    11. There probably needs to be a public health warning here that normal chocolate contains theobromine, which humans can metabolise but dogs can’t, so don’t go slinging your hound a box of Milk Tray to save £11

    Frugality and the myth of the endless more

    Most of us are rich compared to previous generations, but we are surrounded by talented storytellers who tell us otherwise. These storytellers are paid handsomely to change our perception of the world, because they want us to buy more stuff. Humans love stories, it is how we try and make sense of the world around us, but because of this the stories and myths are powerful, precisely because they frame our thinking.

    Somebody asked me recently if I could give them something actionable they could do to be more frugal. I gave a bit of a double-take, because I don’t particularly regard myself as frugal, but I’m game for it. But first I gave it some thought – what does frugal mean to them? I have a sneaking suspicion that being frugal means something different now than what it used to mean. Nowadays, I would venture for most people the definition is

    Frugality is not spending more than you earn 1

    How the hell did we get here? In previous generations not spending more than you earn was the default assumption, frugality was either spending less than you earn, or having to spend as little as possible because your household income was seriously constrained. We’ve shifted a long way to where the norm is spending up to your ability to raise credit.

    The fallacy that credit increases spending power

    Look at MoneysavingExpert’s forums. There are three forums devoted to credit cards. The first – Credit Cards – is about the normal usage and abusage of credit cards, with the emphasis on the latter. The one about Stoozing (free cash from credit cards) is a misnomer these days – you can’t get free cash from credit cards, though it used to be possible 2

    cards

    credit card mandala

    The next one is Credit File and Ratings, which is all about people bitching about not being able to borrow yet more money because they are perceived a bad risk –  either they defaulted previously or they’re just not rich enough. MoneySaving Expert should simply put up a big pop-up dialogue box when anyone posts on this board saying

    HAHA – Consumer Sucka – you have already borrowed more money than you can afford, Stop. Wrong Way, Turn Round now. Pay some back or Just. Stop. Overspending.

    But they don’t. Presumably there’s money in it for MSE 😉 The questions on that board about how to become a better risk (borrow less, pay some back)are far and few between compared to the ones about ‘what is the best way to game this faceless system so I can borrow more money because I Must. Have. Now?’

    Spending Power ≠ Cashflow

    The trouble is that credit is not there to increase spending power. It is there to manage cashflow.This was much more apparent in the early ads from the 1970s

    I’m Access. he’s Money
    Here’s a new way of looking at us

    I won’t run out on you. He will. Money does a wonderful disappearing act. Usually in the wrong place at the wrong time. But I’m always in your pocket, ready to buy what you need, when you need it. And when Money isn’t big enough to pick up the bill, which he often isn’t these days – you can call on me to get things settled.

    I’m flexible. He’s not. My flexibility means that when he’s stretched, I’m not. Using me, you can buy essentials immediately and spread the repayments over whatever period of time suits you best. At this time of year, you could call on me to buy all the presents, drinks, decorations, everything. In fact you could give Money a complete Christmas break. He looks like he needs it.

    Access – your flexible friend (Telegraph Sunday magazine, Christmas 1978)

    You can see some of the rot setting in, the first paragraph talks of needs and the second starts off with essentials. it then all goes titsup when there’s the mention of Christmas. Christmas is a want, even if you have children. It is not a need. If the choice is paying the rent or paying for Christmas, let Christmas go hang – your kids need a roof over their heads more than they need consumer tat.

    Charlotte Metcalf can't afford Christmas this year

    Around Christmas 42 years later from the ad this TV producer can’t qualify wants for needs, never mind introduce her daughter to the sad fact that you can’t always have what you want in life. Thatcher, bless her simplistic heart, believed that

    her vision of Britain was of a property-owning democracy of savers with moral restraint. She got indebted spendthrifts. She wanted the British people to be like her father, but they turned out more like her son.

    The cashflow function of credit cards still holds. One of the best ways for a retiree with a steady income to use a credit card is in fact as an emergency fund. This was cited by Jacob ERE and indeed he also cited the exception which is why an Ermine doesn’t use that – I have no income 3. A retiree with a pension has a steady income, so he doesn’t need to carry a cash float against modest emergencies, and for major ones like house burning down there is insurance. If the roof leaks they can use the credit card, and pay it back over a couple of years. Emergencies shouldn’t be a regular occurrence, else they are normal costs of operation and maintenance.

    It’s questionable whether an employed person can use the same method, depends on how likely they are able to find another job if they get fired, because that’s a very likely sort of emergency in one’s working life. All other uses of credit cards that carry a balance are basically a way to pay more for for less. Say you are one of MSE’s Consumer suckas carrying a balance of £20,000 on a 5% APR card. To put a dent in that loan you have to spend less than you earn, which you don’t want to do, and say you buy £10,000 worth of stuff each year and pay off £11000 on the card. So you carry the loan. Effectively you are buying £10,000 worth of goods for £11,000. Well done you. It’s like looking out for anti-sales – everything must go – 10% dearer today. Of course you’ll chase the cashback and the Clubcard points and sing about the 1% off. It is, after all, a much nicer story than the 10% you’re paying over the odds year on year.

    More credit means we get into arms races with each other

    One fellow, presumably a dyed-in-the-wool laissez-faire free-marketeer, opined that the increase in credit kicked off by Margaret Thatcher relaxing credit controls in the  early 1980s that I ranted about here was a good thing. We all, pure intellectual rational agents that we all are, decided that we would use this money to sink shitloads of money in increasing the price (not the value, the price) of houses, because free markets and free agents brought us this result so it was obviously what we all wanted. In the same way as our tax pounds going to Help To Buy has had the thrilling effect of raising house prices by £8000 because as any fule kno what first time buyers really really want, is for some kind fairy godmother to give all the other blighters they are in competition with some extra money so they have to pay more for the house.

    I’m of the opinion that sometimes you shouldn’t be allowed to do what you want to do, but presumably I’m a Trotskyist dirigiste rather than a follower of Ayn Rand. More consumer  credit is fundamentally bad, because it encourages people to live beyond their means. It still beats me why it is allowed so much – it’s not like it actually lets people Buy More Crap. To be honest if they were buying their consumer goods without credit they’d be buying more goods and services  – our MSE Consumer Sucka could be buying £11,000 worth of Consumer Crap rather than £10,000 worth and sponsoring a bank with the remaining £1000 p.a. – what’s so special about banks that they deserve a 10% tithe of his contribution to GDP?

    This is part of the evil heart of darkness behind the way we have set up our economy – it demands that we chase the endless more, and indeed credit does let us get more faster – and then we get a little bit less for our money as we service the deadweight interest of the loans. That way madness lies, and it’s called a Money Shop. WTF is the price of money in a money shop? Any time you are paying more than £1 for £1 you should be asking yourself why.

    The myth of progress being the endless more

    Let’s say we have some technical advance that means it costs half as much to produce product X. We can use that in two ways. We can rejoice that we only need to work half as long to buy the same amount of X as we had before, and then use the rest of our time to spend more time with loved ones, do something else more interesting than working with half our time. Interestingly enough, you 21st century wage slave are probably getting the short end of the stick here compared with mediaeval peasants, because what we do with greater productivity isn’t take more time off 4, which is what people initially did with improvements in efficiency. Presumably the advantage the peasants had over us is that since a day’s travel on horseback is about 20 miles there was a limited supply of replacement labour ready to ride in from out of town and undercut them; whereas if you want to take a sabbatical in a highly paid industry you may find yourself out of a job unless you are unique or can nobble the competition. As a result you start to see success as the endless more, because it’s hard to vary your time at work 5, unlike the peasants.

    Mo’ betta

    We buy more, or we simply pay more for stuff we need, like housing. Funny old world, isn’t it? Say you were a Martian and got out of your shiny green spaceship and looked at how western consumer culture worked. You’d scratch your head and go WTF? These guys are surrounded by historically stupendous abundance, and they charge round like blue-arsed flies after more of this abundance, then grouch to each other how they never have time to see their kids?

    The trouble is those stories we tell ourselves – success is always faster, better, cheaper, more. That assumption underlies so many of the stories that surround us that we start to believe it’s true. More is not always better – for instance it appears that we are becoming fat bastards because average portion sizes are slowly being ramped up. The connection with more=better means we waste a fifth of the food we buy.

    Mo’ betta’s evil twin, hedonic adaptation

    We notice differences more than absolute levels, above certain limiting thresholds. Which means our appetite for more is limitless, if we just follow our instincts. That’s taken humanity to some bad places in terms of excess consumption. In the 1970s your British middle class family might have gone on a foreign holiday every other year. From looking at Facebook it seems four times a year is the minimum these days. Now granted it’s got cheaper, but are they having four times as much fun? The experience of flying anywhere truly sucks nowadays compared to 20 years ago, you can say two good things about it – it is much cheaper and you get there a little faster. Just about everything else is worse. And yet more is more…

    Curiously enough, it’s easy though rarely done to nut hedonic adaptation – increase the gap between your hedonic experiences, and if possible make the gaps variable. If you want to pay a few hundred on a restaurant, do it every six months or yearly. It will be more special to you than spending the same amount of money per year on something more quotidian, or shudder, a weekly stop at Mickey D’s 6. You probably need to squeeze the gaps out to quarterly or more to avoid normalising on the experience.

    We are programmed to buy

    Let’s take a little bit of sage advice from this dear waif who delivered herself of the deathless wisdom that if you have savings in your twenties, you’re doing something wrong. Unlike many in the PF scene, I actually have some sympathy for the message in the title, largely from a cycle-of-life point of view – it is very hard to get started as an independent adult and always has been. Sometimes you have to pay out all your income, to be honest if you are in your twenties and just avoid spending more than your income I’d say you’re doing a damn sight better than most of your peers, who come on MSE’s credit card forums all dazed and confused why they are getting dunning letters. Let’s examine the random noise that passes for cognitive thought in our waif’s cranium, and see if we can detect any coherent signal.

    I don’t have any savings, but I also don’t have any wants.

    Crikey, this young lady has discovered Zen Nirvana a long time before this greybeard. I am in awe of her precocious wisdom, she’s obviously up on the literature of Thoreau, who delivered himself of the same message more poetically

    A woman is rich in proportion to the number of things which she can afford to let alone.

    Hats off to you, Lauren. Unfortunately it all goes pear-shaped right after that

    don’t know about you, but I like to enjoy my life. I like to go out to eat, buy clothes I don’t “need” and spend money with friends on memorable nights out.

    Hmm, so what exactly are these wants you don’t have? For starters you have associated enjoying your life with spending money, enough to enumerate a  bunch of manufactured experiences, clocking ERE’s trifecta in two lines

    In general, if you ask the average consumer what enjoying life is all about, it distills to the following trifecta: buying tickets, going to restaurants, and shopping.

    Well done Lauren. Hero to zero in the first paragraph. She does go on to make some fair points that young people may delay reaching some life stages compared to their parents; this is not unreasonable if they are going to live longer. I have much sympathy with the longer adolescence theory – I wasn’t an adult at 18 and probably only just at 21, which was where the threshold of adulthood used to be considered before the 1960s. So that’s the long explanation of how we got to living within your means being considered frugal these days. Too much Lauren YOLO. Anyway, back to our frugalista:

    Ermine to wannabe frugalista – live intentionally

    What is something that a typical consumer could do? Live more intentionally. We make most of our decisions about spending in a framework of do we have enough money. And yet we are selling precious minutes of our life here. Here was my idea for the prospective frugalista, the techniques are not original to me, but it’ll do:

    • For the next week, note everything you spend. At the end of the week, look back over it, and ask yourself – did this enhance my quality of life proportionately? Classify into wants – that’ll be all of Lauren’s purchases, and needs – tickets to work, groceries etc.
    • Work out how much time you have to spend going to work (including commuting time) to pay for it – if you earn £80k for a 200-day 8-hour day + 4 hours commute  and take home £54k p.a.  net and pay £2k on commuting then your hourly rate is 52,000 ÷ 200 ÷ 12 = £22/hr
    • Armed with this insight, for the next week, simply delay buying any Wants for 24 hours. The next day, ask yourself if you want to buy this Want, and if the answer is yes, knock yourself out

    These helped me; I still use the technique of waiting for 24 hours for some things. For some people it works well enough to take five and attune to whether this purchase is really worth it to them. The 24 hour delay is usually enough to get yourself into a different emotional frame of mind, and this often enough to split off something that looks like a good idea at the time from something that looks like a good idea all the time. It easily halves wants.

    The reason this works is because it is often how you spend your time that matters, rather than how you spend your money. Armed with that knowledge you can often get better value for your money – the stories the ad-men tell us are that it’s all about the money. That’s bollocks – it’s often more about the who, the how, the when and the why. But these are elements not in the admen’s control, so they push the story that it’s about how you spend your money.

    This is one of the reasons early retirement can work well, even though it is never a wise thing to do financially – you always have more money if you work longer. But if time matters more than money for many experiences, the trade can be a win, and many things are much cheaper if you can take longer or be flexible on timing. You can never have enough money to feed every Want, so the secret is in knowing yourself well enough to discriminate between your wants. Some of them are your wants, but all too many of them are illusory, the background radiation of an economy that needs the endless more to survive. As time goes by it’s about the who and the how and the when and the for how long, and less about the what. There’s a delicate balance in all these parameters, and only a very faint sound of Thoreau’s distant drummer to guide you to your inner voice. The rest is the boorish shouting of admen and sales types who want you to sponsor their dreams.

    Notes:

    1. For the sake of completeness I’d make the integration time a calendar year, to catch all recurring costs
    2. Some people labour under the misapprehension that cashback, topcashback, points et al are free money. They aren’t. You are being slightly overcharged for your goods and then sell a bit of your headspace to the card companies to normalise increased spending in return for a little bit of cashback. You save far more than the cashback by just buying 5% less consumer shit. But each to their own – believe the story you want to hear if you like
    3. this is increasingly untrue because my ISA throws off a fair bit more income that I would get claiming JSA, but since I reinvest that I don’t count it as income
    4. there is an argument to be made that early retirement is one way of taking more time off
    5. this is more an aspect of working for an employer – if you are a contractor or you are The Boss you have some flexibility here
    6. £560 for two incl wine at Raymond Blanc’s joint is about the same cost as a year’s worth of weekly Big Mac meals for two in Oxford

    turning work into performance art by gamesmen

    The world of work changed tremendously over the three decades I spent in it. Much of that change has arisen as a result of the tremendous improvement in communications since I entered the workforce in 1982 1. Communications in 1982 were the telephone and the letter, computers were rare and accessed by expensive text terminals on RS232 serial lines and didn’t feature highly in the early days. Companies were much more hierarchical and experience was more valuable – equipment, technologies and staff didn’t change as  often as they do now.

    Over at Retirement Investing Today RIT has a fascinating post Will I want seclusion in FIRE – he is much more analytical than I am and identified trends which, looking back seem obvious but I sure as hell missed them 😉 Part of the thesis is that RIT self-identified as an extravert but he wonders if this was an adaptation to the performance art known as work.

    The Swiss psychologist Carl Jung gave us the concept of extraversion and introversion, although they are commonly understood to mean something a bit different from his description. The general summary is

    Extraversion tends to be manifested in outgoing, talkative, energetic behaviour, whereas introversion is manifested in more reserved and solitary behaviour.

    RIT’s post set me thinking, it’s not surprising that the vastly improved range and nature of communications today will play well to extraversion, and it is my experience of the changes in the workplace. Early on I decided I wanted to work in research and design, and within the first few years of working had got myself into this field- something where the intellectual challenge is interesting and also areas of work that don’t greatly feature the endless flapping of lips that makes up a lot of human activity. Although humans are top predators which normally tend to be loners in the rest of the animal kingdom, we are social animals. But some of us are more social than others; I only just about get the point of Facebook and I am still trying to work out exactly what is the point of Twitter 😉

    FI/RE tends to favour introversion

    ERE Jacob called out that the group of people chasing early retirement tended to include more introverts than the general population. It’s not that surprising when you think about what you have to do differently to achieve FI early – you have to opt out of some of the shared experience of modern consumer life. For example I don’t have a television any more, not because I can’t afford it, but I don’t want to give headspace to ads and I don’t want to live other people’s dreams. It’s not cost-free – there is a hell of a lot of good stuff on TV. I aggressively block as much online advertising as I can – some popular websites just don’t work on my system, and when I see the web on other people’s computers I am flabbergasted at the amount of ads and moving crap there is everywhere.

    Although I’d agree with ERE that the balance of FIers is shifted along the spectrum to introversion it is a trend not a requirement – after all Huw over at FFBF is enthusiastically organising meet-ups which get a good attendance so there are a decent number of the PF community who are towards the more extraverted end of the spectrum. I probably lie a long way to the introverted side, I have tried but I can’t really see what the point of a PF meet up is – which is not a criticism of the concept at all, it’s just something I can’t get my head around.

    The workplace increasingly favours extraversion

    In my thirty years at the workplace, I saw them knock down the walls of the roughly ten-person offices that were common at the BBC Designs and the early days at The Firm, first into sort of cubicles and then into the instrument of productivity destruction that is the open-plan office. The talented engineers of the early days were often very seriously weird human beings, some were almost totally unable to read human emotion and could piss others off deeply without realising it or meaning to. People could get away with being such oddballs if their work was great 2 , indeed I would say that probably most of the major advances in human knowledge have been made by people who had something wrong with them.

    The rest of us are just a little bit too average to push the envelope that much. Some of these oddballs and misfit  guys (they were mainly guys, engineering is just like that 3) were strange, some of them just plain stank because their minds were focused on thinking rather than the issues of being a large animal rather than a brain on a stick. But when they got in their stride they would be talking about stuff that left me searching for the overdrive setting on my brain, regardless of the amazing hum in the office…

    In those distant days although there were annual appraisements a lot of this was around what had happened in the last year. The designs and research were often easier to ascribe to one individual, and I was okay with that. I was happy to be judged by the results of my work – did this work well and was it reasonably in budget? I led an international team of guys doing some research on optical transmission, but communications were still largely done by fax and the phone, although there were primitive forms of email using UUCP and some DEC Vax technology. But the world of work started to change with the advent of the Web.

    Many of the extremes were eliminated – there was much less individual eccentricity and excellence in the world of work I left that when I started. Some of that is good – some of those early workplaces carried deadweight. I applied to the University of Southampton do to a MSc in electronics in the mid Eighties after observing some 50-year olds in Studio Engineering at the BBC who were on the same 2N5P entry grade as me. If you always follow the path of least resistance, you tend to roll downhill. I was prepared to make the climb for a better view.

    and so the cycle will turn again, and start anew

    a fast follower

    My experience was influenced by these external changes, but also that I was slowly creeping up the greasy pole and also that The Firm had shifted its emphasis away, and one Big Cheese openly admitted, from becoming a ‘first mover’ to becoming a ‘fast follower’. Apparently in MBA circles there is a sound intellectual basis for this policy, which is kind of depressing in a general way. Eventually the wellspring of human progress will dry up as we all try and follow each other

    Astute fast-followers recognize that part of Customer Discovery is learning from the first-mover by looking at the arrows in their backs. Then avoiding them. 

    The changes in the world of HR seemed to be that it was all about performance management, writing lies and bullshit into dire computer systems, impose forced distributions that implicitly set everybody against each other  – if I avoid helping you then you can become meat for the mincer rather than me, despite all the platitudes about teamwork. Performance management favours those who shout loudest and big themselves up the most – the clue is in the word performance, which has a double meaning in English for a good reason. It’s about the singer, not the song.

    RIT has the edge on me – he was able to observe, and adapt, he will retire earlier in his life than me. And good luck to him – to be honest his daily experience of work sounds like a hell of a lot rougher than my three years of running out in lockdown mode – I didn’t spend much on useless consumer shit, didn’t eat out and didn’t go on holiday but it wasn’t that tough! Unlike RIT  I was unable to play against type and eventually I came to the logical conclusion that I am better off out of there. Though I was tickled by some of the comments

    I certainly don’t enjoy spending time with wider family and friends who continue to consume like the best of them.  Their talk of how much their house has gone up in value or what new car they are going to buy now just bores me.

    It’s called getting older 😉 Although it’s not for everybody, I find Carl Jung’s work a decent map for the territory of my life-cycle

    It seems to me that the basic facts of the psyche undergo a very marked alteration in the course of life, so much so that we could almost speak of a psychology of life’s morning and a psychology of its afternoon. As a rule, the life of a young person is characterized by  a general expansion and a striving towards concrete ends; and his neurosis seems mainly to rest on his hesitation or shrinking back from this necessity. But the life of an older person is characterized by a contraction of forces, by the affirmation of what has been achieved, and by the curtailment of further growth. His neurosis comes mainly from his clinging to a youthful attitude which is now out of season….

    Carl Jung, 1929, CW 16, ¶75

    and observation shows that a trend towards reflection and understanding is associated with ageing well 4– arguably a shift from extraversion which is needed to be successful in the first half of life to introversion and deepening in the second half.

    Countering that I became less introverted after retiring, because I own my own time and take things on my terms or walk away. The performance managed workplace made me mistrustful of other people because you don’t have to be stupendously clever to see the logical conclusion of a forced distribution – your end of the boat goes up at other people’s expense, and vice versa.

    Some people learn to live in the matrix quickly. They are always seen as stars, but they have no real results to prove it.

    I took a hit in a non-work area of life and interpreted the bad quarterly performance review after that as the starting gun to get out three years later. As it happened The Firm needed a legacy skill I had for the London 2012 Olympics and invested a little in trying to patch it up, but once the mainspring is broken the clock can never be rewound. I did that work because I needed the money to thread my way out of there, and it was satisfying in its way, but I struggled.

    Modern performance management f*cks people up, particularly introverts.

    I was particularly maladapted to it because I didn’t grow up with the problem, for most of my career performance management was about results, not narrative. I believe that there is a lot of fluff and peacockery now that just wasn’t possible in workplaces before, facilitated by easier and cheaper communications, from the cc CYA emails to the endless telephone conferences to try and work out what you are going to start to all do, it just grows, along with the empty metrics and targets collated because it can be done 5. ERE again identified the problem – the workplace is becoming a game, with rules and levels – it rewards those who learn to play the game, the gamesmen, whereas I am more to the craftsman end of ERE’s taxonomy.

    ERG may not like the stupid dance, but he probably grew up with it. Performance management is the #1 reason I retired early, I never, ever, wanted to have that feeling again. I was okay with what I was doing, but the writing was clearly on the wall – the workplace was becoming increasingly hostile to introverts. It is apparently possible to change this orientation, and if not then some people can fake it. But you get more cantankerous as the years roll by – WTF should I change myself to dance to this rotten tune when I can leave the stage altogether and navigate by the light of my own lamps? I’ve only got another three or four decades max, I have enough money to have a good time and indeed re-enter the middle class and inflate my lifestyle should I want to do that once I have access to my pension savings.

    There’s a very good argument to be made that you should do this thinking about what you want to spend your time on earth doing at a much earlier stage, and it’s good to see such a lot of people in the PF community are indeed doing just that in their 30s and 40s. Life is short, use it well 😉

    Notes:

    1. of course as an engineer much change in what I did adapted to changes in technology
    2. this is still present in some tech extremes –  like the way Google employees can’t cook for themselves or do their own washing, which is why Mama Google sees to it to fix their household requirements. Free food, free laundry, free haircuts. free car…
    3. when the IET which is the UK electrical and electronics engineering trade body has to establish a more female-friendly alter ego as the Women’s Engineering Society with nary a link to the IET then it shows that there’s trouble in Paradise – along with the carping about the status of engineers in the UK the lack of women is something that occupied the Letters page of the IEE when I joined in 1982 and still exercises them as much 30 years later
    4. Jung himself did pretty well – anybody whose last words are “Let’s have a really good wine tonight.” is someone who knows how to cash in their chips in style
    5. there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with metrics, but as Stephen Covey says, begin with the end in mind. Why are you collecting these metrics, and are you measuring it because it’s easy to measure or because it’s worth measuring?

    How do you recognise product quality online?

    Buy cheap, buy twice – I keep on doing this to myself, and really need to learn :) The trouble is that it’s hard to avoid – modern consumerism deliberately tries to strip out any markers of quality, leaving us chasing cheap, as Ellen Ruppel Shell highlighted a while ago.

    Three years ago I bought some RGB light strings from a fine Chinese emporium on ebay, which I used for parties outside. When new if I connected power to all RGB strands it would all light up white, but six lots of unrolling and restowing and it’s done for.

    Update 16 Aug 2015 – in rigging the Harvest party I found what the problem is – cable tying these to the poles of the marquee means the bending radius is too sharp when the tape hangs down halfway through rigging. This cracks the solder joints ot the LEDs or ballast resistors. So it was my damn fault – when you get these stick them to something rigid and leave ’em like that. They could warn you of that in the data sheet by indicating a min bending radius, perhaps…

    Whereas the equally Chinese white LED tape I bought five years ago is still going strong. This stuff is made out of three LEDs at a time – the workmanship was so shoddy that half the sections had gone – I bought two 5m lengths and both have become faulty with ratty connections and missing segments.

    should really all be a nice even white colour

    should really all be a nice even white colour

    Perhaps using it outside was bad – although we think of dew as a morning phenomenon, in fact dew descends soon after the sun goes down, particularly in the summer. This surprised me when I observed it, but it is a consequence of the dew point, which falls with temperature. Derigging the equipment at summer parties after 1 a.m. the gear is often damp. Maybe this got into the supposedly waterproof tape and corroded the connections, though it was sold as waterproof :)

    Buy cheap, buy twice – it’s an online thing

    Ebay is a marvellous cornucopia of components and bits and pieces – whenever you want some part it’s always cheapest from there. Recently on a design I was making I wanted some TL494 power control ICs – I can pay 50p for these from CPC in 10-up prices or I can pay 13p a throw if I buy 10 from China on ebay for £1.29 – delivery free 1. If I rock up to Mr Texas Instruments and say I want to buy 1000 they will a) laugh me out the door – 500k is probably the minimum order, and b) cite me a budgetary unit price of 21US cents, probably F.O.B. Texas Instruments.

    A pukka Texas TL494, from when they used to make them in the low-cost manufacturing place du jour before the fall of the Berlin Wall and Tianamen Aquare

    A pukka Texas TL494, made by Texas in 1988 from when Portugal was the low-cost manufacturing place du jour before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    Whereas the spotty youth in Shenzhen could manage to slightly beat the manufacturer’s price and stick ’em in a Jiffy bag to send over here. The canny buyer will, of course, ask himself some serious questions about the provenance of these parts, let’s just say that the Texas Instruments stamp on the cheaper parts may be a little bit fuzzy and this is probably not an ISO9001 traceable supply chain. You pays your money and you takes your choice.

    Shenzhen electronics store

    Shenzhen electronics store

    The way most sellers of onesy-twosy Ebay goods work from China is you put your order in, and over in China an enterprising young fellow will go down to one of the fabled electronics shops of Shenzen and buy the part and stick it in the post to you. Looks like it pays to be a local here to avoid getting ripped off, but ’twas ever thus. At Huaqiangbei you can nip up to the next floor and check out Women’s World or Carnival Clothing City if you are, ahem, “bargain hunters and brand name copy lovers“. Which explains why so many Chinese ebay sellers of electronics parts are equally at home selling me some LED strips 2 or a girl’s dress. This puzzled the inquisitive Ermine snout, and now I know why.

    Price is not a clear signal of quality in many markets, and it’s hard to gauge quality online

    Once upon a time people used to go into a store to buy things, and when you handle the goods the experienced buyer can often gauge quality – by the weight, the smooth running of moving parts, the quality of workmanship. We’ve lost many of these quality cues when we buy online, leaving us with the basest metric of all, price. Although price can be correlated with quality it doesn’t depend on it – marketing is a lot more sophisticated now, indeed websites can show different prices to different consumers for the same thing, depending on their history. One of the main advantages we got with the Internet is that it allows us to compare by price, so that’s what we do, driving everything down to the lowest common denominator.. Which is great with many things – but it drives us right down to the bottom end for a lot of products. Which is not always where we want to be.

    I don’t know where to go to buy a better RGB LED strip. I could go to these guys, and pay £8 a go. But let’s face it, they probably get their strips from China and mark ’em up – the product image looks exactly the same as my faulty item. For all I know there is one massive company in China turning these out. What I will probably end up doing is getting big 3W LEDs and screwing them to a aluminium rail – at least if I get failures it will be my own rotten workmanship and I will be able to fix it 3.

    In the grand scheme of things this isn’t a big deal, but the quality conundrum is observable in many things now – if you want something a little better than the bottom end quality you have no way of finding a reliable supplier even if you are prepared to pay more money. I can pay more, for sure, but as UTMT said, price is what you pay and value is what you get.

    more »

    Notes:

    1. the price matters here because someone is thinking of using this in a product; for a single unit 37p is neither here nor there.
    2. For the record I didn’t buy the defective LED strips from this seller
    3. I can’t use the obvious route of commercial lighting kit as that’s all 240VAC and I want to run 12V

    Don’t be in thrall to Total Return

    Poor old Greybeard over at Monevator has stuck his head above the parapet again saying he will use actively managed investment trusts to smooth his retirement income and make it easier to manage. Meanwhile Insourcelife has paid down his mortgage in his late 30s, some ten years earlier in his life cycle than I paid down mine in my late forties. 1. Paying off a mortgage early is an opportunity costThe Accumulator sensibly decided to invest instead. Here are two people giving up some Total Return, OMG, that’s nuts!!!

    The world of personal finance seems to be moving towards an intellectual materialist rationalism that favours Total Return over all else 2. Now if you are a 20-something with 35 plus years before you can get a hold of your pension savings then yes, I agree TR is what it’s all about in those pension savings taken in isolation. If you are a retiree who wants to featherbed your adult children because you think the robots are coming to take way their middle class jobs then TR is important too, because although you can’t take it with you they will and a little bit of you will live on, enabling you to do the whole terror management theory thing of living beyond death. Beats having your head frozen, I guess.

    The trouble is that life is a balance, and often maximising one aspect above all else has undesirable consequences. Money is crystallised power, a claim upon future work. You can prioritise one aspect of it like total return, but then you will have to deal with being exposed to massive volatility. It’s easy to sit back at 30 and say I’m cool with that but you need to have gone through a couple of stock market crashes to know if you are cool with that really. Maximising TR means you should run towards that sort of fire :)

    The Ermine is not a Total-Return maximising rationalist

    I have done some dumb things in personal finance. I retired 8 years early – the gross money I would have earned in the remaining eight years probably roughly equals my total networth 3. Oh no – hundreds of thousands of pounds kissed goodbye to-  how crazy is that? Well, I don’t know – the world of work was driving me round the bend with it’s stupid metrics and micromanagement – I am ERE craftsman, not gamesman. The view is a hell of a lot better, too:

    giving up a six-figure sum to see this

    giving up a six-figure sum to see this

    or this

    or this

    instead of this

    instead of this – hell yeah.

    I paid my mortgage off early – even at the time I knew this was a teeny bit irrational, and took a whole year with it dropped down to to about £1000 4 mulling over whether I should pay it off. Then I did, and although every so often I observe that I take an income suckout between leaving work and getting hold of my pension savings, faced with the same I’d do it again, because at that time I wanted peace of mind that if I got iced from work I could lock down and make it through.

    There’s a time to maximise your total return, and that’s probably when you’re young, because you aren’t usually putting much in. But as you go through life, beware of black-and-white thinking. Sometimes you have to consider throwing some red meat to The System and giving up some total return, particularly after you have retired, because it is about the ride, not just the money. Otherwise we are in the danger of becoming that “man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing” Oscar Wilde warned of in Lady Windermere’s Fan.

    I’ve given up a very decent six-figure sum, pasting my potential Total Return by about 50 to 25%. I  did it because it is more important to live to see another few decades with health intact, and sometimes you have to take chances in life. It is nearly three years since I left work, and would I do it again if I had my time over? Hell yeah – because the aim of the game is to maximise Total Life Experience, not total return. It’s a balance thing, not a single variable.

    For sure, I’m poorer for it in money, but I am richer for it in Life. Money is not the only thing you can run out of…

    The Escape Artist put it this way

    Why behave as if this one life we get is just a dress rehearsal?  If you are one of those people and you carry on working in your all consuming City or Corporate job, then you are wasting your life.

    If maximising total return is stressing you out in retirement as you see your capital eroded which is reminding you of the Grim Reaper’s call then give up some total return. Use investment trusts, have a plan to annuitise at some stage/stages, give up the fight slowly for an easier ride.

     

    Notes:

    1. Insourcelife is American so paying off a mortgage may be an easier ask as houses are less expensive relative to wages I believe, certainly from looking at US real estate windows on a business trip in 2007 where I could have easily bought a house cash, but impressively Insourcelife has done this with children which probably more than offsets the difference!
    2. I’m projecting some of my own prejudice here, but passive investing is still a belief system IMO. Any belief system has axioms, and I am uncomfortable with some of them, in particular the ‘valuations don’t matter’ one. My perspective is different, however – I don’t have 30 years of investing without extracting returns ahead of me like a young Boglehead starting out would have
    3. the opportunity cost is in fact a fair bit lower, I was a HR taxpayer and couldn’t have extracted anywhere near the gross amount because of limitations on pension contributions introduced since I retired.
    4. it was a flexible mortgage so I could have ramped it back up at will up to the original repayment track
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