economy living intentionally reflections shares: glastonbury GM oxford
by ermine
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The wheel of the year turns, and a pause for reflection
The Ermine household took itself to the West country at the beginning of the year, for a time of rest, and reflection on the year passed and the year to come. The culturally preferred way of doing that in the UK is to get hammered on the last day of the old year and welcome in the new with a humdinger of a headache and hazy recollections of indiscretions. Nothing wrong in that in itself, but it gets tougher on the constitution as you get older
So happy new year to y’all if you’re still here!
It so happened that Mrs Ermine wanted to go the the Oxford Real Farming conference. That’s an alternative to the conventional Oxford Farming Conference, where Owen Paterson told the assembled mass of agri-business that he was going to pay for PR to convince the recalcitrant refuseniks of the Great British Public that GM food is good for them. Really it is. I’ve offed the GM rant to later as it isn’t the main topic here.
So we stayed at a lovely campsite near Oxford for a couple of days. Oxford looked pretty much like it did three-and-a-half decades ago when I went up there for an interview, only the tourists have changed,

old-worlde building graced by pretty Asian girl wrapped up against the British weather. Time moves slowly in Oxford; Photoshop her out, fade to grainy black and white and it could be the same as my 1978 photo
Wandering around the city you can practically smell the old money oozing from the stones

old money keeping this gilded gate nice. It would be shabby if paid for by an Austerity Britain council
Then it was time to move on, to Glastonbury in Somerset, for a period of reflection on the year past and the years to come. The weather was kind to us – we were prepared to eat the cost of a lost booking if the weather had turned all snowy, since our FWD camper van is back-heavy and handles poorly in the snow. We had a lovely few days in a magical environment, though I fear a 1970s revival seems on its way by some of the garb on show.
We stayed at a self-catering cottage near the town, and ate well from the slightly off the beaten track greengrocer and the fine town butcher, both near the market cross.

alternative shopfitting for this greencrocer, but their stuff was good
Although it’s ringed by the usual rash of out of town shopping and supermarkets, the people in the town have enough non-clone-town concerns to support a decent number of shops, and not the usual rash of casinos (not one I recall) and charity shops that infest the hollowed-out High streets of many market towns.

I love city streets in the rain, okay so it’s cheesy and Thomas Kinkade but so what, it’s kind of magical. And no chain stores, no clone – town Britain
You can’t really talk about Glastonbury without a reference to the eponymous Tor so here it is. It’s still a right grunt to get up it, though it is easier now than it has been for me in the past.
One of the joys of this holiday is we rented a really characterful stone cottage in nearby Butleigh that dated from the 1500s, though we had the advantages of modern plumbing and electric heating. There was a wood stove in an enormous inglenook, but this was more for the atmosphere than a useful source of heat as it was leaky as hell and tiny. It made me appreciate the quality of my own wood stove, but hell, it added character and we had electric heating to do the real work
So where’s the personal finance angle? Well, it was also a good time to look back at six months since leaving work, what happened, what is likely to happen, where I want to go.
what happened since leaving work
- I lost some weight. That is not a bad thing. I haven’t consciously tackled this, it seems that the stress while working had negative physical effects.
- I drink less coffee – often just in the morning. Hell, I can even code without it, despite it being the software writer’s legal drug of choice.
- I drink a little bit less booze. Okay a lot less compared with the immediate end of my working life. That stress thing again I guess
One of the things that became clear, is that I started my journey unprepared, particularly psychologically. I had expected to get to 60, retire normally and get on with life. In 2009 I discovered I needed to do that 8-11 years short. In times of need the Ermine will fight, and so I chose to fly into the storm, accept the rotten work environment but save madly.
Unwisely I assumed that the primary risks were financial, that I would be kicked out. In retrospect this was not the case. I had already accumulated significant capital, unlike everybody else in Britain is seems I paid down my mortgage rather than going on holidays and buying cars with the increased house prices. And indeed lived significantly below my means, accumulating capital in terms of housing and some shareholdings, as well as the usual rainy day fund. I measured this against income, but in fact it makes more sense to measure it against outgoings, which made it bigger in effect.
The financial risks were overblown. I could probably have made it bailing in 2010, because I had projected my outgoings to be the same as while at work. A life retired is one where you can take joy in things that are free and low cost, those which take an investment of time, or improving skills, becoming self-critical and honing one’s art rather than searching for the technological quick fix or having to pay over the odds to pack everything into the weekend.
One of the gifts that not working has done for me is that I can aim to do things with respect, or not do them at all. When I was working I had to do all sorts of things ‘just because’. I couldn’t respect anything to do with the stupid performance management system. WTF is the point of a performance management system – my performance showed in what I did. The back of house guys in the Olympics could see what was going on in real time, because of the efforts of me in high-level design and the subcontractors in mid and low-level and getting boots on the ground. I didn’t need some stupid prick ticking boxes or not. And indeed all due respect to my last and final line manager who got the balance on this right, it was the previous one who was the box-ticking prick. But I had to do PM, ‘just because’ some management consultant twits on an MBA said that was the way to do things. Where the hell were these guys when the West was built, funny how they only showed up as it is being lost!
There are very few things I have to do just because somebody says so now. So when I do something, I try and take time, to address the job in hand, reflect a few moments, and then engage properly, indeed to live intentionally. Whether it’s roasting a chicken, cutting a piece of wood or designing a piece of kit. While working I sleepwalked like an automaton through stuff that needed to be sleepwalked through, but also through things that needed to be done with respect.
I missed two risks. No man is an island, entire of itself. In flying into the storm of organisational values that had become so disconnected from mine, the Ermine’s brilliant white pelt was tainted as I had to run with some of the stupidity and pretend to agree with what I believed to be arrant rubbish. I paid for being so at odds with the values New Lean and Mean Firm. Overtly, by nearly being ejected for struggling after parting the ways with DxGF. And covertly, because in retrospect pretending to be something I wasn’t for so long seriously damaged my physical and mental health.
In 2007 I came to Glastonbury with a couple of pals. And failed to climb the Tor, I got too out of breath and abandoned the attempt. Which is piss poor, the path rises 80m in about 400m linear distance. Now I can’t say that I raced up it this time but I was okay, stopped a few times to gather strength but the recovery was a couple of minutes, not tens of minutes then fail as it was five years ago. And not too many people overetook me
. I am sure that Mr Money Mustache would consider that a really low grade performance but I’m not him, I’m probably twenty years older. And I don’t have the physical fitness fetish. Decent for my age is what I want. His original weight target is what I’d like, it’s roughly what I weighed at 21, and at least it isn’t so bad I’d have to lose half my body weight to get there. I have absolutely no comprehension of why he wants to become heavier. Good luck to him, I’m sure he’ll get there by the end of the year!
I want to be able to cycle up the grade from Tuddenham on an ordinary road bike at more than walking speed without feeling like shit for fifty yards afterwards. I’d like to be able to cycle from Ipswich to Minsmere and back again. Pumping iron and being able to lift cars single handed – nah. Life’s too short for that, even if doing that makes it a little bit longer. Each to their own.
So much for physical health, but not living my values cost me mental health too, it robbed me of hope and fire to illuminate my world, to choose life and direction. When I left, I gained by the removal of much of what was wrong. It looked good, and for some time I did not miss the hole – the absence of agency and direction that should have been there but wasn’t. I followed the originally designed financial plan, but the greatest fear was running out of money. So, like an unconscious pilot slumped at the controls, the plane to run on autopilot, and it did well ,the original flight plan was sound. I tried to wrestle against my net worth falling, but that was a fight I can’t win. By various synchronicities events conspired to make it look as if I could win, but it won’t be possible in the medium term. It doesn’t need to be, I don’t need to satisfy Micawber’s rule over the next few years, and my original plan did not demand that. It had two requirements – that I should not run out of cash, and that I allocate my ISA allowance each and every year for several years to come.
Hope is a fragile thing. DW played for time, and guided the inspirationless ermine across the gap until the spark of the internal flame could strike and hold again. There are times in life when one must be prepared to fall back and fall back until somewhere, like Albert Camus in Return to Tipasa, in the midst of winter you learn of the invincible summer that lies within. Somewhere in Glastonbury this happened. It is time to ease back into the pilot’s seat and survey the controls. Not necessarily time to do anything yet, but to look and see if anything has changed that the flight plan needs to take into account.
GM rant
My personal objection to GM food isn’t that it’s bad for you. I mean, some variants will no doubt turn out to be bad for you and/or the environment in general. But there’s plenty of regular millennia old stuff out there that’s bad for you. Try making wine out of ivy or eating foxglove, or most fungi. Plants are aggressive bastards, out to kill you with strong poisons 1 in the fight for Darwinian supremacy. Vegetables have feelings too and don’t actually want to be eaten by great hairy apes. Fortunately a whole host of humanity has gone before to ID or learn how to cook the nasty stuff. We didn’t need GM to make a mess of the environment – DDT, the non-decaying plastics waste choking the oceans, there’s more than enough mess made perfectly conventionally. more »
Notes:
- if you have ever tried eating red kidney beans without boiling the suckers for ten minutes you get to know this up close and personal. I saw the results in a student flat when one guy sampled a couple of red kidney beans on the stove. The results were dramatic, he didn’t make it to the bog before chundering violently ↩
economy fixing things frugality reflections: allorments complainypants growing
by ermine
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where did we lose the basic skills of self-reliance to cope with financial austerity?
The Grauniad’s had a series called Breadline Britain about how dreadful life is for our increasingly financially challenged nation. Now I just about experienced Britain in the 1960s, as it was pulling itself out of the post-war austerity, and one of the things that strikes me about the difference between the Britain I saw as a child and that of now is that adults have become far less self-reliant. We have lost many basic skills that soften the issues of having less money, and it appears that many adults just don’t seem interested in learning. The second thing that strikes me is the appalling incompetence at household financial management. Perhaps it was easier for my parents’ generation because borrowing money was much harder in the past, so people had to live within their means or just lump it. And the last thing that is obviously wrong is people don’t seem to be asking themselves whether they can afford to have children before doing so. This lady has four children – on a family income of £44k. It isn’t hard to see why she is struggling.
People design in fixed costs into their lives without giving them enough thought. It first struck me when I reflected on a colleague who lived 25 miles away from work, where I was 6.5 miles from work. We were both higher rate taxpayers, and I calculated that he needed to earn ~£5k more than me, just to have the same disposable income. How’s that? Well, design in a 50 mile round trip instead of a 13 mile round trip. That’s an extra 37 miles he needs to drive, each and every day. That’s about £1300 a year in fuel alone. He’s putting 8100 extra miles a year on his car, with all the wear and tear that entails. I could keep my cars for 10 years and buy them well secondhand; he bought his cars new – in the service life of one of mine, he’d have put 80,000 miles on the clock, so that just wasn’t an option for him. I could bike to work when the weather was congenial. Taken in the round he was taking a hit that was probably equivalent to a salary cut of £5000 a year. And of course he was losing about an hour of his time each day.
Every time you pay someone to do something you can do yourself, you have to earn enough to be able to pay tax on the money you are paying out. If that person is employed, you have to cover the overheads, sick pay, employer’s contributions, the lot, whereas if you are doing it yourself, you do not have to earn the money and pay the tax and NI on it.
It is always much more expensive in cash terms to pay someone else to do something that you can do yourself.
Now that isn’t a reason to insource everything, because there’s the opportunity cost to the money you could be earning at the same time
If you are hiring someone on minimum wage and you’re on minimum wage yourself, that is barmy – do your own cleaning. If you’re earning £50k then knock yourself out and hire the cleaner if it means you can earn £20 an hour net and paying them £6.19.
The cleaner on minimum wage is the obvious example, but there are more subtle costs. For instance, it’s more expensive to get Tesco to prepare your meals for you rather than do it yourself, which is why ready meals are more expensive than the ingredients, and if the cost is the same then the ready meal will contain ropey ingredients
I was staggered at this bunch of Guardianistas who are struggling to feed two children and two adults on the meagre income of… £35,000 if you please, and they’re living with his parents! Let’s take a closer look. They were on a combined household income of £75,000. Now I have never lived in a household that had this much income – ever! I haven’t been in a household with two incomes for most of my life. The Ermine is not one of the 1%. So I ask myself how the hell these good people managed to get made bankrupt. She lost her job when they had twins. Now I appreciate that it’s not meant to happen that way but in general many mums leave the workforce for a few years after having kids, so the loss of that income was to be expected. Have they never heard of savings? Now they are complaining of not being able to afford decent food, and having to use ready meals. Mrs Ermine has examined that fallacy in this post and found it wanting – the problem there is food preparation skills, or the lack thereof, as well as a shocking lack of imagination and general get-off-your-backside-and-do-something smarts.
Now eating is one of those fundamental things that everybody needs to do. If you’re rich enough to afford ready meals, then have at it, but if you’re not, or you have the temerity to want your food to taste of something other than sugar. vegetable fats and monosodium glutamate, or maybe you are rude enough to want vitamins, then you have to re-acquaint yourself with the food prep skills that humanity has preserved across generations – until now. Sometimes I wonder if people realise that food doesn’t only come from supermarkets – it’s actually possible to grow some things yourself
I particularly like the line
I’m not stupid: I know this is going to have a detrimental effect on my children’s health.
For God’s sake, woman, you’re running on £35,000 a year, and have more time, being unemployed. And yet you see fit to switch from cooking yourself to using ready meals? Where’s the rest of that £35k going, on the horses?
It is the loss of skills that will hurt people in future. In the past people grew food on allotments and in gardens, which saves a lot of money – Mrs Ermine qualifies that at about £2000 a year saved; for a basic rate taxpayer that’s equivalent to needing to earn about £3000 less every year! As an added bonus, although your veg will look gnarlier that Tesco’s, it will actually taste of something and be good for you, as well as filling you up.

Food does this – it just sprouts from the ground, despite what Tesco would have you believe, and here some citizens of Ipswich are taking advantage of that fact
There are other skills that could save people money. When I bought my first house, I had a problem with a stuck main intake stopcock under the kitchen sink. Now I could have called in a plumber, but because I had seen my Dad do plumbing, I figured I’d change this myself. I had ambitions of using a blowtorch and Yorkshire fittings but couldn’t reduce the seepage from the Water board stopcock enough to get enough heat into this, so once I got within 5cm of the inlet with some abortive attempts I sucked it up and used a compression stopcock. Job done. I replaced the guttering myself on that house – for the cost of an aluminium ladder and the materials, which was a lot cheaper than when I had that job done on this house; I was time-poor and wanted the soffit and bargeboads changed to uPVC which wasn’t within my capability. I fixed my heating system when the timer/programmer died and again when one of the motorised diverter valves died. I changed my own cold water tank, taking the opportunity to relocate the bugger to the apex of the roof to give a decent head of water to the shower, rather than run a power shower. I changed the water pump on my car, and replaced brake pads in the past. I did this because I grew up with the expectation that any halfway competent person who wasn’t rich would be able to do those – people just couldn’t afford not to.
Mrs Ermine asked me recently if I was going to run the wood stove in the day. I don’t generally, because the heat is preserved in the house from the evening before. I said no, because I didn’t want to spend the money. She looked at me as if I was crazy. “How’s that going to cost us more then?”. She was right – we don’t pay for heating, because we are prepared to chop up wood and pallets. I did some of that today. Heating less doesn’t save us money. But we need to chop up more wood.
In Britain we need to become more self-reliant. We need to learn how to cook decent food from ingredients that our grandmothers would recognise. We need to learn to fix some of the basics ourselves. We need to learn to go without if we haven’t got the money, rather than borrow money and have our future selves pay even more back. In the last decade or so we have outsourced a lot of these basics to outside agencies and to the welfare and benefits system, to try and buy our way out of needing to tackle the gritty basics of life. It’s time to roll up our sleeves, spit on our hands, and get to work relearning some of the basic skills our grandparents used to take for granted.
Knowing how to feed yourself and your children from food not sourced from supermarkets and food that doesn’t come with instructions printed on the back is a skill we seem to have lost somewhere. My mother’s opinion of supermarket veg was unprintable – she got that from Lewisham market stallholders who would get it from Covent Garden market in the early morning. Even as a student supermarket veg was tired and low-grade. Fortunately students don’t need veg
The supermarkets have found how to make veg last longer by chicanery like de-oxygenated atmospheres in plastic packaging and the like, but they can’t get round the problem that the flavour of food fades with time, and most of it seems to fade in the first day or two. It’s why those stallholders got their produce from Covent Garden barrow-boys in the early morning – because they’d have got an earful from their customers if their produce tasted as poor as Tesco’s finest. But it was more faff, and somewhere between the 1970s and now we collectively decided that all the adults in a household should go to work, so we don’t have time to buy decent fruit and veg, or grow it, or cook our own food, or fix our own plumbing or any of those things that our grandparents took for granted.
We could afford the luxury of losing those skills in the last couple of decades. From the Guardian’s Breadline Britain series it looks to me that these skills are now being very sorely missed. We need to stop borrowing so much money and start living within our means. We need to think about whether we can afford to have as many children because it looks like some of the freebies there are drying up. And all in all we need to man up and start to take responsibility for the choices we make in our lives and skill up to be able to do more with less. The Guardian’s we never had it so bad is absolute bullshit. I grew up in a London of coal fires where only a single room in a house was heated in general, where most people didn’t have cars, and where people grew their own food and cooked it themselves.
Fridges had no freezer compartment – I recall the excitement when we got the first one with a two-star icebox – you could store frozen food in that but couldn’t freeze it I think. Respiratory ailments were widespread, because the damp and condensation were endless problems; I got bronchitis nearly every year until we moved to a house with central heating. That was not poverty in a Guardianista sense of the word – nearly everybody was like that. But what we did have was a broad base of basic skills, and good and reasonably stable communities. The move to paying for everything and having both adults working has atomised those communities and we have surrendered some basic skills for the blandishments of advertising. It would make the Guardianistas wring their hands in horror.
And yet there was some satisfaction and camaraderie there. People had hobbies other than watching television, and often these were creative, in quite eccentric ways. There may not be so much money about in future, but we have enormous advantages over those times, communications are far cheaper, the relative level of wealth in much higher.
The essential difference is that Britain in the 1960s, though it was far poorer than the Britain of 2012, was improving. It was better than Britain in the 1950s, and immeasurably better than the Britain that had endured its darkest hour standing alone against the Axis. The Britain of 2012 stands wanting compared to the Britain of 2006/7, and the Britain of 2015 will probably be wanting in material terms compared to today never mind 2007, for many people.
We probably can’t dodge that, but we can soften the blow by taking our lives back from the endless messages of spend spend spend. There is a certain reward in taking control of some of the variables, and pulling back from the money economy to improve our quality of life, rather than our standard of living. In a previous life, I used my meagre skills to grow tomatoes in the back garden. The crop was variable because I didn’t really know what I was doing, but for a lot of the time they were far better than Tesco’s Finest vine-ripened tomatoes- because they had experienced th sun until the day they were eaten. Some simple pleasures can’t easily be bought, and perhaps we will find pursuing these more rewarding than chasing the admen’s plastic dreams. There’s something peculiarly short-lived about the enjoyment derived from satisfying a want that is created by marketing, because it is always a hostage to the next updated version. The stillness when the treadmill stops is a silence that is valuable in itself…
economy
by ermine
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The next recovery won’t improve living standards for most people
All around there seems to be relief at the end of the recession, but also a feeling that respite is still some way away. There’s a growing awareness that households aren’t really going to be experiencing any of the benefits either, and this surprisingly accessible IMF report describes why, in the piece Stable Disequilibrium. The thesis is that there are still serious imbalances between consumer economies in the West and producing economies mainly in Asia, and there is no theoretical or analytical understanding of why these persist. Without an operating theory of why something is happening it is difficult to formulate policy of how to address the problem. All is lost to policymakers in the fog of war:
The global economy today is in the midst of secular and structural realignments at the national, regional, and international levels as relative dominance and dynamism shift from the older advanced economies to emerging market economies. These realignments are occurring during a period that includes a highly unusual economic downturn that spawned a degree of policy experimentation in advanced economies trying to shake the recession that not long ago would have been deemed unthinkable. These developments also explain why markets have tended to fluctuate violently—as investors alternate from being risk friendly to risk averse.
The prognosis isn’t that good for Western economies. Without a working hypothesis it is difficult to see how the IMF expects their preferred second scenario to happen
There are two ways to resolve the inherent [...] contradiction of a stable disequilibrium over the medium term.
The unpleasant resolution involves the advanced economies tipping once again into recession. [...] The policy responses would inevitably be less effective now that central bank balance sheets have ballooned to 20 to 30 percent of GDP in the major advanced economies while deficits and debt remain high.
The better resolution is one in which policymakers are proactive and preemptive. [...] In this scenario the United States regains competitiveness and growth, Europe reforms itself into a more robust and harmonious economic union, and systemically important emerging markets encourage their growing middle class to consume as well as produce. All of these developments would have to take place simultaneously
Hmm. Guess which one of those is more likely to happen? My money’s on the first rather than the second, for the simple reason that the second demands simultaneous and proactive action from governments that have been reactive until now. So we are looking at either a triple-dip recession on a bit of recovery followed by a second recession in a year or so.
In particular, the population of the West is in deep shit. It was called out in in The True Lessons of the Recession by Raghuram Rajan
For decades before the financial crisis in 2008, advanced economies were losing their ability to grow by making useful things. But they needed to somehow replace the jobs that had been lost to technology and foreign competition and to pay for the pensions and health care of their aging populations. So in an effort to pump up growth, governments spent more than they could afford and promoted easy credit to get households to do the same. The growth that these countries engineered, with its dependence on borrowing, proved unsustainable…
This is also shown in the flatlining improvements in living standards across the generations, highlighted in The Jinxed Generation in the FT. It shows some interesting conclusions. The generation following me (Gen Y) achieved faster career progression in material terms. I was in my mid twenties before I could afford to go on holiday abroad and I was in my thirties before I got on a passenger aircraft for the first time. This would align with the massive increase in disposable income in the 21-mid thirties. People reaching working age two decades after me had a better income boost, particularly in their 20-30 year mark, but it is possible that career progression is slower after that. My career progression roughly tripled my pay in real terms (ignoring casual jobs at the start), or doubled it from the first graduate-level job I had.
Although the FT brings out the biggest gains among the pensioner cohorts, it is grinding the jinxed generation axe somewhat, as there are also these large gains early on in people’s working lives too. Integrated over time I would say the front-end gains are larger. I am starting to wonder if this doesn’t explain some of the nutty increase in house prices. But wages aren’t increasing any more. And they probably won’t increase in real terms for a long time, because of that drag of accumulated debt, which must either be forgiven or paid down.
Nevertheless, we should beware of being trapped in hedonic adaptation. The so-called Austerity Britain of today is immeasurably richer on nearly all fronts than the Britain I grew up in. Indeed, on the measures where it is a lot poorer – the freedom of children to roam and the cohesion of society, I would venture that it is not more money that we need to improve these. It is more heart.
That is perhaps the core of a lot of our problems. We confuse quality of life with standard of living. As an individual my standard of living plunged as I started to save to retire early. Initially, my quality of life took a hit as well, as some of that spending was on distracting myself from the pressures at work and interacting with stupid objectives dreamed up to push the wage bill down. Now my standard of living is still massively lower than it was in 2007. But my quality of life has improved immeasurably, because I have the freedom of self-determination. Money isn’t the only thing that makes live worth living, and yet you’d get that impression at times when people talk about Austerity Britain.
Spending on some things improves quality of life. It is frightening just how much spending doesn’t do that, once you choose to live your own values, rather than the ones pushed by consumerism.
The next recovery whenever it shows, won’t improve most Britons’ standard of living. It still is pretty good on average compared to what it was a decade or two ago. The problem is that it’s not that good compared to five years ago, and that doesn’t feel good because the party is still a recent memory. As time goes on that memory will recede. The Kubler Ross model of grief seems to apply
- Denial – it’s not happening, we just need to remortgage, flex the credit cards
- Anger – it’s all the fault of the bankers or the 1%, string them up by the lampposts
- Bargaining – Keynes will save us now, more spending, more borrowing will fix it and make it go away
- Depression – we’re probably getting to this stage now…
- Acceptance – we have a little way to go for that, to acknowledge the good times aren’t coming back any time soon.
According to this, I’d probably agree with Monevator that we are halfway through the recession. Until acceptance is achieved, there will always be the hankering for policy to get back to where we were before, which blinds us to looking at what we have in front of us and what needs to be done to steer a straight way forward.
It’s a shame the IMF prognosis is so bad and understanding of what is going on and why is so limited. I guess on the upside personally, I will be a net buyer in my S&S ISA for the next ten years or so, and it looks like the first years of that at least will still be under a cloud. Which is a good time to buy, though it never feels that way at the time
economy housing personal finance: interest-only mortgage
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Tighter Lending? Interest-only mortgage timebomb? That was set ticking years ago
Shock across the nation as our biggest building society, the Nationwide, KO’s the interest only mortgage. Apparently it means there’s an interest-only mortgage timebomb that’s just gone off! Oh No! The Daily Mail’s Simon Lambert tells us
Do you have an extra £400 a month spare to spend on your mortgage? That is the kind of the potential rude awakening that awaits millions of homeowners with interest-only mortgages the next time that they want to move home or remortgage. Many of them will be blissfully unaware that their personal interest-only mortgage timebomb exists.
Well, no. Let’s reframe this a little bit. Joe and Josephine First Time Buyer wander into ther friendly local building society to see the manager, Mr Wolf. The conversation goes like this
JJ: we’ve seen this lovely little house and we’d like to buy it with some of your money, please.
Wolf: okay, we’ll take a look. So you want to borrow £250,000 over twenty-five years you’ll pay us back the money and we’ll have to charge interest on it I’m afraid.That will be £10,000 capital and £12500 interest at 5% each year 1. How do you feel about paying £1875 a month for your house?
JJ oh that’s far too much. Here, how about we just pay the interest?

Mr Wolf thinks Interest-only? pleasure doing business with you, Josephine’
Wolf: oh, okay then, that’s just £1041 pcm by then
JJ: fantastic, where do we sign up?
furious scribbling of documents. JJ leave with smiles on their faces. Just as they turn to leave, they say
JJ: Thank you so much Mr Wolf!
Wolf: And thank you, JJ. I’ll have retired by then, but my successor will be along in 2037 to pick up the keys to the house when we take it back. Great doing business with you. [bares rows upon rows of pearly teeth in a smile]
Therein lies the rub. If you can only afford the house of your dreams by just paying the interest on the loan, then your dreams are too big for your pocket. You can’t afford the house, and in practice your shortfall is about half.
Of course, this isn’t how people think about it. Typical thinking is epitomised in this Torygraph article about Tough New Mortage Rules to hit First Time Buyers and borrowers in their 50s. What part of ‘home owner’ does the Torygraph not get? To own something, you pay all of it, not just the interest on the credit card used to buy it.
Here what they have to say about one of the more pernicious pieces of financial engineering over the last decade or so, the interest-only mortgage
Because they have lower monthly repayments, these types of loans have in the past helped millions get onto the housing ladder.
There’s a perfectly good alternative way of looking at this
Because they have lower monthly repayments, these types of loans have in the past helped millions to overpay by about twice for their houses, which they will never get to own.
Doesn’t sound so nice put that way, does it?It also fundamentally builds in a deep need for house prices to rise nominally. Not in the abstract I feel richer because my net worth has risen way, but in the ‘Aaargh I owe more money than I’d get if I sold up‘ way.
Now for those hard pressed 50-somethings for whom the Telegraph’s heart is bleeding, because, shock horror,
It will pose difficulties for people who are in their 50s wanting to take out a typical 25-year mortgage. For example, a 55-year-old would struggle to obtain a home loan because it would not be paid off until they were 80.
Well, er, yes, I mean the obvious question has to be asked of Johnny-come-lately.
You should be owning your house free and clear, not getting a 25 year mortgage at your stage of life. Two score years and ten + 25 into three score years and ten won’t go!
A mortgage is a way to place a claim on the value of your future work to buy something expensive now. The Jobcentre doesn’t have many outlets six foot under. You’re a rotten risk compared to a 30 year old, because over the next 25 years you’re more likely to die and you’re much more likely to lose your job permanently, plus you don’t exactly show an awesome track record of saving. That’s forgivable in a 30 year old but not in a 50 year old. So thanks but no thanks, we won’t be lending you any money!
If I wanted to take out a mortgage now I would damn well expect the mortgage firm to ask me how I was going to repay the interest and capital within ten years or less. If I couldn’t afford it I’d expect them to tell me to get on my bike. And I’d expect them to demand life insurance to discharge the mortgage should I peg it in the duration.
As you get older a mortgage simply isn’t a good product for much of the equity in your main residence. If you need one, you aren’t rich enough to be able to afford to live there, unless you can pay a 10 year repayment mortgage. If I want to buy another house I either use the accumulated equity in my current house by selling it, adding cash if I upgrade, or I pay cash for it or I secure a mortgage on it as a financial investment like a buy to let mortgage, but then I don’t get to live in it.

stick half your working life into ten thousand or so of these, or…
But – but – but it’s so unfair! I can hear the wannabe homebuyers of the country thinking. This actually will work in your favour over the next few years. It will stop all those other jerks offering way over the odds for houses using their interest only mortgages. That will reduce demand at current prices, and the sellers will have to eat crap and drop their prices. Which means less of your lifetime earnings will go into housing, and more into foreign holidays, and meals out. It’s not all bad, eh? What would you rather have, 25 years of sun sea and sand or a pile of mute bricks soaking up your dreams?

alternatively add 25 years of beach holidays to the mix by overpaying less?
So not only are current buyers sinking more of their lifetime earnings into houses, they don’t get to own the damn things at the end! That’s the ultimate tragedy of the commons – it’s nuts from a collective viewpoint but rational from a individual viewpoint, because everybody else is at it. It a rough deal and It.Must. Stop – so good on the FSA for finally putting an end to this racket 2 Yes, the buyers from 2006 and 2007 will get to eat the crow, just like I did after buying in 1989. The only way for prices to go up as fast as they have done over the past 20 years again is if we start to have Japanese or Swiss-style intergenerational mortgages. Let’s hope the regulators aren’t asleep at the switch if that idea raises its ugly head, eh? The level-headed Swiss are probably more competent to handle that sort of thing, the gnomes didn’t get to watch over the assembled loot of the rich for generations without showing some track record of financial nous. It still seems barmy to be, but most nations have at least one widespread bizarre national quirk that looks mad to the rest of the world.
In Britain before Thatcher, a lot fewer people owned 3 their own homes (50% as opposed to todays ~70%) 4, and they invariably took out either repayment mortgages or purchased an investment that was intended to repay the capital at the end of term in combination with an interest only loan, and the building society took a primary charge on that investment. I was shocked when I moved in 1999 and the building society didn’t ask me how I was intending to pay the 40% extra that wasn’t covered by the endowment I had at the time. I switched the mortgage to a 60% interest-only (covered with an endowment) and 40% repayment mortgage. Incredulously, I asked the mortgage adviser what he expected to happen at the end, to which he replied most people want to keep the payments down as much as possible.
Well, I didn’t. I intended to pay my debts thanks all the same, and had to kick up a fuss to do so. There are a few sharp people around who know how to play an interest only mortgage. They are very few and far between, and the interest-only mortgage is a Weapon of Wealth Destruction in most people’s hands. There are two ways that it destroys wealth. One is people getting repossessed if they stretch themselves too far, but there’s a much more insidious way it destroys wealth.
It lets many people overpay for houses, bidding the price up too much
Houses are effectively sold by auction, because they aren’t easily comparable or interchangeable with others. If you can borrow interest only, you can ‘afford’ to bid roughly twice as much as if you actually had to pay that money back over 25 years. Ergo, the price of houses goes up about twice. This goes for other means of artificially supporting house buyers. Every single attempt by governments or other agencies to make them ‘more affordable’ has simply jacked the price up to compensate.
This benefits the providers of capital, ie the banks and building societies because they get to lend twice as much money. The higher price helps housebuilders, but all this doesn’t help the borrowers one bit. Of course banks were up for interest only mortgages – they got to lend a lot more money that way!
We had a much less dysfunctional housing market before Thatcher got in there and started buggering about with it. Those who couldn’t afford housing lived in council housing if they had children and lodging or bedsits if they didn’t, and a small proportion bought a house using a mortgage.There was a lot wrong with council housing, but in general it worked for a much wider range of society than social housing seems to now.
Britain is a small island with a lot of people in it. The sad fact is that not that many people can really afford to truly buy a house over a working life. The 1970′s ratio of 50% is probably on the high side. The even sadder fact is that all the muddling with the housing market has jacked prices up so much that an even lower percentage of people will probably get to own their houses in future.
The interest-only mortgage timebomb started ticking roundabout when I remortgaged to move, when mortgage providers let people get out of the door without having a repayment strategy in place. But we can’t just place the blame on the providers. The borrowers have to take a teeny bit of the blame too, for not asking themselves the question I asked myself in 1999. That question is
how am I going to pay back the money I have borrowed, 25 years after I sign up on this dotted line?
It has been surprisingly possible to achieve this in the past, probably because mortgage companies only lent money to people they expected to be able to repay it, rather than indulging in NINJA loans.
I was surprised to discover this graph 5 showing the percentage of people that own outright, compared to ‘owning’ with a mortgage. I hadn’t expected 50% of owner occupiers to be mortgage free. I suspect this will be lower in 25 year’s time when Joe and Josephine approach the end of their working lives, precisely because of those interest-only mortgages. The bank will have made a shedload of money, though not as much as they lost lending money to Americans without any money. And JJ still won’t own their house, though they will have the warm glow from feeling they were worth a lot of money way back when. One of their best hopes is this fellow

With a bit of luck he’s devalued the currency enough that the capital cost of their house is worth the price of a Mars bar and a pumpkin latte.
They might wish to bear in mind my experience as a cautionary tale, then. I stupidly paid way over the odds for a two-up-two-down in 1989. Sticking a sly paw into Merv’s back pocket to borrow the inflation calculator the Ermine dicovered that the inflation-adjusted value of this amout in 2011 was over two-thirds of the price of my current house. Now the capital doesn’t appreciate on an interest only mortgage, but even the original capital amount is a third of the price of my current house. Zoopla tells me it is about half the price of a house of the same type in the same road as the one I owned. Yes, inflation is your friend, but not as much as it was in the 1970s.
Oh and Mr Wolf? Happily retired and studying the phases of the moon with his telescope.

Notes:
- I have brutally simplified the complexities of mortgage interest calculations, it’ll do for this ↩
- Unlike in the past when lenders would take a primary charge on an asset this has many loopholes. Lenders would be required to check at least once during the term of the loan that the savings pot its still in place. I am happy to say I back a borrower for a month during the check with the contents of my ISA in return for a fat fee and the insurance premium, and I am sure there’ll be others providing the service on a commercial basis
↩ - In the UK people say they own their houses even if they have a mortgage. I personally believe I only owned my house when I discharged the mortgage, but nearly all stats use the more general used sense of owned by the finance provider on behalf of the borrower ↩
- about 50% in the mid 1970s as compared to ~70% now ↩
- DWP ↩
economy: osborne
by ermine
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Osborne – workers of the world unite – and take the shaft?
Wow, ain’t he generous? When I was a young Ermine, one of the principles I was taught was that the whole point of the rule of law meant there was one law applying across the land. Okay, as I got older I realised that often money and influence could tarnish the ideal, but here’s George on the TV offering people nothing for something:
George, me old mucker, there was a story on some old book years ago about some fellow selling his birthright for a mess of pottage. You read that and figured it sounded great. Let’s take a butcher’s hook at this deal for new workers:
Here you are, £2000 to £50,000 worth of shares in your future employer, in return for losing most of the the expectation you used to have of remaining an employee or at least there being some warning of getting the hoof, and your overall employment security. There is already a well-established and equitable way of companies getting a flexible workforce.
Contractors sell security of employment – for extra pay, not a one-off bung!
Hang on, didn’t that used to be called contracting? I once saw a spreadsheet of departmental salaries where they had us permies and the salaries of the contractors. The contractors were typically on three times the gross salary of permies. They have no employment rights, no pension, no statutory sick pay, they get to pay their own employer NI. That’s why they earned so much more! If they had any brains they’s use some of that excess to stick into a pension, insure against sickness, and build up an emergency fund. Oh and pay NI to HMRC under IR35. All that probably took up half the excess, and the rest was compensation for being more entrepreneurial and the fact that the company could hire and fire at short term notice.
Not a bad deal at all. Boy George wants firms to get that on the cheap. Here’s an Ermine’s word in the shell-like of putative employees that are tempted. Just Say No. Want £2000 worth of shares in the company you are about to join absolutely tax free? Here’s how to get the gain without the pain.
Save up £2000, open up a stocks and shares ISA, instruct broker to purchase £2000 worth of Company of your choice, sit back, job done. No CGT to pay in future either! No need to sell your employment rights for that.
There are other ways to build up a stake like that, for instance join Sharesave, on maturity you can transfer up to £10k worth of shares to a S&S ISA, job also done but you are also protected against share price movement downside!
Boy George’s offer is a bum deal. Do yourselves a favour. Just Say No to the Osborne pottage. If you like the firm’s prospects that much, contract for them, and use an ISA to save some of your contractor’s premium, in shares of the firm. Each and every year you work for them!
As of the end of this year, I will own about an equivalent value of shares in my former employer as my take-home pay would have been, purchased in employee shares and Sharesave. That’s a damn sight more that the one-off £2000 Osborne’s offering for your surrender of your employment rights, and that is about half the extra amount firms have to pay contractors to accept for not having any – each and every year. I don’t particularly consider myself an ‘owner’ of The Firm. I get some satisfaction from the fact my ex-employer has to pay me about a month’s take home every year in dividends, but it’s a bigger stake than Osborne’s offering people to sell their legal rights for. Your pissant stake in the company is going to do diddly-squat to influence the direction of the firm. The interests of shareholders are to some extent diametrically opposed to the interests of the employees. I don’t hold this stake in my ex-employer just because Neil Woodford owns a big slug of it in Invesco Perpetual’s high income fund; some of the reason for holding the shares in The Firm were some of the reasons that made it a worse place to work in the end.
Free shares for your employment rights - Snog, Marry, Avoid?

She’d say Avoid to Osborne’s deal ![]()
Know a bad deal when you see it. This one’s definitely Avoid. Unfortunately, it looks like employment law is going to be rewritten to allow for new hires to be only offered second-rate employment rights, rather than having a genuine choice. You may not have the option to avoid, and contractors may also get the shaft, as the flexibility they offered at a price is going to be undercut somewhat. Heck, as an employer I’d rather offer an Osborne hire and fire ‘em contract at permie salary with a bung at the beginning for any role where the extra cost of NI, NIST pension + £2000 share bung is less than the contractor premium over the expected life of the job. Yes, the range is £2000 to £50,000 worth of shares, but somehow I get the feeling £2000 is going to be the thick end of the distribution
The £50k will be at the board level end, and these don’t usually have to worry about getting the push unexpectedly…
Osborne’s not offering you anything of significant value compared to what you have to surrender, and what he is offering is pretty cheap to buy on the open market along with the much vaunted CGT tax advantage carrot he’s dangling. He could have done so much better – how about vesting a six months to a year’s salary worth of share options at the start, to mature after five years or when you are terminated, if the latter is earlier? He could sweeten the deal for companies by foregoing NI until the vesting period ends, the saving in unemployment benefit would probably make this revenue neutral.
Try harder next time, George.
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The Guardian is telling me I’m living in poverty. Oh and a family needs £36k to get by these days
Cripes. According to the Grauniad’s new campaign on Breadline Britain, the Ermine is living in abject poverty. Not only that, they appear to be in some confusion between the notions of income and wealth -
Using key data from the Institute of Fiscal Studies [...] you can see exactly how wealthy you really are.
Really? The reason, dear Guardianistas, that you will never get rich is because you are stuck in a poor person’s mindset. You think only of selling your time for money, and therefore you assess how wealthy readers are by exclusively focusing on their incomes. So just to set you guys right, wealth is accumulated income that hasn’t been spent. Geddit? Although no doubt the Ermine is lacking many of the baubles and gewgaws that the IFS consider to be essential to a life well lived these days, like Sky TV and a smartphone, the reason the Grauniad decides I am subsisting below the poverty line is because my income is low. I am in the lowest 5% by taxable income, though in the upper 5% by net worth. That doesn’t quite set me into Monevator’s millionaire bracket ambitions, it simply shows how little accumulated wealth most Britons have. Presumably because they’re spending it on cars and childcare…
In another article, the Graun shares with us the fact that a family of four need a combined income of £36k for a decent standard of living - a third more than before the recession.
A large part of this seems to be due to rising expectations – said family needs to run a car and have broadband which it didn’t in 2008. I’m not sure if those nice chaps at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation are au fait with what the word recession means. It means living standards taking a hit. So those rising expectations had better be packed away in a dark place until the recession ends, if and when that happens. Old Mervyn King, while he’s not occupied giving brash American banksters the order of the boot, isn’t chipper about that happening any time real soon now. So, JRF, just put away those rising expectations for the moment, OK? Then we had this corker
With the cost of bus travel doubling compared with the cost of owning and running a car, families said that having a car was now essential in urban areas outside London.These rising costs come as government cuts deeply into the subsidies paid to modern middle-class Britain.
Well, colour me a cynical old so and so, but exactly why was the government subsidising the middle class in Britain? Did somebody discover the money tree in the last decade? Surely it is the very definition of middle class that you can basically pay your own way in the world…
Now I’m probably going to get some hate for this, but apparently childcare is now these two child families’ biggest weekly outgoing. Which sort of begs the question of why the parents are spending time they’s probably like to spend with their kids in earning money so that … they can pay other people to spend the time with their kids rather than doing the job themselves. Seems a rum old situation, that.
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We need to work less, like those feckless Germans
Germany never really struck me as a haven for the bone-idle, but if this opinion piece in today’s Grauniad is to be believed, the old Protestant work-ethic seems to burn low over there. At least compared to the poor old Americans, who may live in the richest country on Earth but seem to have ended up working the longest hours in the developed world. And ended up with sod all annual holiday (vacation) allowance to boot.
Looks like the lazy Germans work only four fifths of the amount of time the Americans put in. Nevertheless, Dean’s comment here made me take a double-take
The most important point to realize is that the problem facing wealthy countries at the moment is not that we are poor, as the stern proponents of austerity insist. The problem is that we are wealthy. We have tens of millions of people unemployed precisely because we can meet current demand without needing their labour.
I spent about five minutes going WTF, this guy is totally full of crap, before coming to the conclusion that he is probably absolutely right. Now of course there was the same old same old in the comments, indeed the first one I saw was Chris
If I do less work I get paid less money.
You’d be solving unemployment at the cost of making those who have jobs much poorer.
No thanks.
Chris’s problem is that he feels that he can’t maintain his current lifestyle on less than what he currently earns. The solution, Chris, is to live below your means. Buy less shit, do more with less Stuff, and y’know, maybe see more of your family? It’s amazing how much really interesting stuff is nearly free – as Mr Money Mustache summarised with panache in Get Rich With – Nature
And yet I have a curious fellow feeling with those Germans. I’ve chosen to take their solution in a different way. Give or take a few months, I have retired 8 years short of the normal retirement age for The Firm, and had I run to term I would have had 37 years of working under my belt (from coming of age at 18 and after knocking out three years as an’ undergraduate and one postgrad year). That’s pretty close to a German-style 20% fewer hours, it’s just that I’ve packed them all in at the end. There was, in 2008, the option of going part time which was offered by The Firm in a German-style response to the recession, but I was already in the final sprint and lowering my income would have delayed my exit date. So for different reasons to Chris, I responded in a similar manner that I couldn’t afford it.
Where I differ from Chris is that I didn’t need the money to maintain my living standard. Indeed, what this story shows is one of the tragedies of our time. I saw a BBC programme a while ago called the Century of the Self with Adam Curtis, who showed some archive footage from the dawn of the 20th century. There was a real fear that the nascent industrial mass-production would be in serious trouble once people had got all the stuff that they needed.
Yeah, I know, stupid buggers, eh, how on earth could they ever have thought something so daft? But apparently it took some effort to find the path that took us to the place we are today, and the talents of a chap called Edward Bernays, who according to Curtis (quote is about 1 minute in from the start)
was the first person to take [Sigmund] Freud’s ideas about human beings and use them to manipulate the masses.
He showed American corporations for the first time how they could make people want things they didn’t need, by linking mass-produced goods to their unconscious desires
Now Adam Curtis gilds the lily somewhat, but he does have a point. Bernays was the nephew of Sigmund Freud, and I’d say that Westfield Shopping centre is the logical fruition of Bernays’ ideas – a place where it is virtually impossible to buy anything useful, a shrine to the supremacy of Wants over Needs. Is there really a need for Peppa Pig
or pretty much any of the rest of the stuff on offer in the Westfield shopping centre? Breitling watches? McDonald’s? Massage Angels? Previous generations of Londoners managed with keeping their ostentation down to luxury departments like Harrods, we now need two Westfield shopping centres and Harrods to service London’s wants
The problem may well be that we are wealthy – and we have ended up engineering society to that people like Chris feel they need to earn as much as he feels he requiress, so that he can spend that money to be able to service his job-house-home-car wants to the level that he is told he needs.
Now I’m not sure that this is really what the Guardian’s Dean Baker meant. The possibility that he doesn’t acknowledge is that perhaps German productivity is higher. However, his point is valid in isolation; you can adapt to varying load by varying hours as well as varying the number of people employed. From a human point of view it is a lot easier to cope with an expectation of up to a 20% variation in income compared to an expectation of full income with unexpected and uncontrollable outages of uncertain duration, otherwise known as periods of unemployment. You can adapt to a fall in income by cutting back on elective expenses like going on holiday. You can’t adapt to a loss of income without having savings or a passive income – I should know, after all I have electively prepared for a loss of income for up to eight years, and cutting back is not the route to success there, you have to forestall it or go under
However, something that Dean Baker also doesn’t acknowledge is that there is a threshold effect. Any task needs so many man hours, but hiring 30 workers for one hour a week is nto the same as hiring one worker for thirty yours a week. The government needs to tax employment, via national insurance to provide unemployment benefits among other this. That is a hit on employment, making an incentive for employers to employ fewer people but increase the hours they work, and there are other disincentives to employing more people such as the cost of checking work permits and other social costs which are, unfairly in my view, loaded onto employers. It should be the Government that checks eligibility to work from the NI number an employer submits, not for the employer to do the grunt work ahead of time.
So I’m all for working less, like Germans. But if we are going to do that, we need to teach people not to rabidly live all the way up to their instantaneous income. Even at work, far too many people took their bonuses and because it was a unusual spike that month spent it on wants and toys.
A bonus is part of their pay, indeed shifting the balance from basic pay to bonuses is a way for the Firm to pay less (it wasn’t pensionable) and keep open an option of paying less in future (it wasn’t consolidated). I observed The Firm slowly increase the portion of pay that went to bonuses from a couple of percent in the 1990s to about 10% this year. People didn’t arbitrarily save up 10% of their income and blow it regularly on toys in the 1990s, so why they treated their later pay in such a cavalier fashion at the end beats me. But they did, and this tendency to live up to the peak of one’s instantaneous means is a large part of why unemployment is such a cause of great pain in recessions – there is no buffer to keep the wolf from the door.
In the German model the company takes over some of the responsibility of smoothing the peaks and troughs, and in general as we have seen with pensions in the UK, companies show a far greater capability to do strategic long-term planning than most individuals do. However, in the Anglo-Saxon world at least, companies are running as hard as they can away from taking any responsibility for their employees’ financial well-being, other than to provide them with a pay packet.
economy: euro crisis Greece Grexit Lagarde Treuhandanstalt
by ermine
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Treuhandanstalt for Greece – the first glimmer of a solution?
All the so-called ‘solutions’ for keeping Greece in the Eurozone have been targeted at the symptoms. Too much debt or not enough money; Greece spends more than it earns, so either cancel their debts or give them a load of money. That sort of thing works well enough to address the debt, but not the deficit.
Which is why Angela Merkel hates it. In there mind’s eye she sees Greece’s National Debt as some sort of nasty sawtooth function starting at 0 in 2001, dropping to -loadsamoney in 2011, injection of loadsamoney from someone probably Germany, rinse and repeat every 10 years.

Merkel's vision of Greece's finances. Nasty, eh? Each red oval is a injection of Someone Else's Cash
Meanwhile, over at FT Deutschland we have the Dutch finance minister de Jager snarling about the way club Med have taken over the ECB and the clowns are running the circus. You don’t need to speak German to understand the graphic showing the vicious circle (Teufelskreis). Basically the kitty is empty, the government goes to the IMF, IMF gives money with strings that include raising pension age, weakening employment protection etc, the voters go on the streets, kick the government out, new government forms, goes to IMF etc..
So de Jager wants to take the process out of the hands of the Greek government, by privatising the state organisations in a similar way to how West Germany bought out the East German state-owned organisations. He has to sell the money going to Greece to his own Dutch voters, insisting the money is only doled out via a Greek Treuhandanstalt.
It might be a solution. What needs to happen in Greece is for the rule of law to be broken – the contracts that established the absurdly low retirement age and overmanning would be annulled, just as the rules of the old East Germany were written off. There will be a lot of losers in that game.
Now you can’t impose that sort of thing from outside. But Greece will have an election in June, so a clear message ‘ we offer this solution, that has worked before, and the money to make it fix your problems’ together with the clear alternative ‘or you need to find a different way on your own’ is binary enough to be put to the vote.
The problems seems to be that the Greek constitution doesn’t work with the Eurozone – it can’t achieve enough productivity to have any hope of sorting the balance of payments. There’s not enough trust in the action of Government to get enough tax revenue to pay for what it does. Indeed, de Jager is most forthright about it -
Weite Teile der griechischen Wirtschaft sind nicht nur sozialistisch, sondern fast kommunistisch organisiert
Large parts of the Greek business are organised not so much along socialist lines, rather they almost organised along communist lines.
Before the Euro Greece could simply devalue to adjust. That’s the great thing about having your own currency – if you can’t be bothered to be productive, your currency will fall to make imports dearer to compensate, so your national lifestyle choice can be retained. Greece doesn’t have this luxury now, something has to change. Greece and Germany are outliers in Europe, and somehow thay have to become more alike. There are huge risks – a lot of what Greeks think of as rights and value will be written off.
Interestingly, there is a similarity between the Treuhandanstalt proposal for Greece and the analogy to the nascent USA drawn by Ray Dalio (hat tip to Monevator). At the moment Europe is a collection of countries each pursing their national self-interest. There is no executive tax-raising entity called Europe [1].
The early American states had many of the problems Europe has now, including trade imbalances and debt. This too took about a decade to show up, post Independence. What they did to resolve it was create the United States of America. Pretty wild, eh?
They had advantages over Eurozone Europeans, though.
- no extensive history of fighting each other like rats in a sack
- a single language
- greater commonality of situation (all had recently become independent from Britain)
- no common currency
East Germany compared to Greece
Although I see the Griechische Treuhandanstalt as a potential technical solution, I don’t think it will fly. East Germans shared a common pre-war history with West Germany, a common language and a common culture. There were obvious things wrong with their pre-unification existence in terms of material wealth and restrictions on movement. It’s interesting that even so, there was a lot of turmoil and discontent in the actions of the Treuhandanstalt, as things east Germans had taken for granted such as job security and some entitlements were wrecked in the upheaval and the shift to private enterprises from the old State run enterprises.
The West Germans weren’t all chuffed either. I recall my grandmother grouching about how her generation had rolled up their sleeves to rebuild Germany after the war and implement the Wirtschaftswunder (economic miracle of postware Germany under Adenauer) and now their pensions were being taxed another 1% to do the same for the East. The Hartz reforms of the early 20o0s in Germany reduced the level of unemployment benefits, and caused some public unrest.
The equivalent of the economic handouts to Greece was the acceptance of the OstMark at parity with the West German Deutschmark. The East German economy was a basket case and this vastly overvalued the Ostmark.
However, it would be churlish to say that the buying out of East Germany by the West has been anything other than a success
Let’s take a look at the comparison with Greece. Greeks have had a great time of the early 2000s, so all they see is loss in any move to a Griechische Treuhandanstalt. That’s the greatest problem – there’s no real upside. As Christine Lagarde said, it’s payback time for Greeks. That’s a hard sell, and voters are likely to flip the bird to such a suggestion, even if the alternative isn’t all milk and honey either.
So although it’s the first suggestion about the Greek crisis that might work at a fundamental level, I don’t expect to see Greeks to vote for a Greek THA. That’s the trouble with IMF tough love in a democracy, it’s not a vote winner. And herein lies the problem with democracy all round – it’s hard to get votes for tough decisions. I’m still expecting a Grexit…
[1]before UKIPpers jump in, if the British Government didn’t agree to the level of EU taxation it could secede which is not so much the case for say, Idaho.
economy: euro robert peston United States of Europe
by ermine
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Robert Peston’s Great Euro Crash programme
It was time to dust off the Ermine Telly lurking the corner of the spare room to watch Robert Peston’s Great Euro Crash. Despite a histrionic presentation and less than mellifluous voice, Pesto’s usually worth a gander, because he takes us a little bit beyond the ‘oh God it’s all so awful and going to end in tears’ into at least why it’s all so awful.

- Robert Peston in the Great Euro Crash
One of the interesting questions about the problems in the Eurozone is how the hell did Europe get itself into this mess in the first place. The answer isn’t as obvious as ‘there was too much ganja lying about in Paris and Berlin in 1998′. This muddle has been brewing for years arguably from before I was born
One of the things that’s hard to appreciate from a large island on the northwestern edge of Europe is just how dear the United States of Europe is to many EU politicians, particularly those of a certain age. Most of ours in Britain just don’t have this either of personal conviction or because they know it isn’t something dear to the British electorate.
It was all about trade and the Common Market in 1975 (and presumably 1973)
I recall voting in the referendum of 1975 and it was all about trade and the benefits thereof rather than the creation of the USE. This referendum was about Britain’s continued membership of the Common Market – we had entered in 1973 ISTR. I wasn’t of voting age or even 16 by then; I believe the Daily Mail is wrong in throwing this hissy fit about the referendum that nobody under the age of 53 had the right to cast a vote. Either that or my own recollection of voting in this referendum as my first experience of democracy is wrong. I think you only had to be older than 14 to vote in this referendum. A flavour of the debate can be had from the text of the explanatory note. It’s about trade and given the same information I would vote yes again. What I did not sign up for was a USE. Most of the issues that yer swivel-eyed UKIPers get worked up about I don’t really give a toss about. I’m happy to drink beer by the half litre in Munich or the pint in Ipswich but if it gets to be the 500ml in Ipswich then so be it. But there’s no real appetite for a United States of Europe in terms of political union in the UK that I’m aware of.
Which is why the UK has always been looked at as the Island Kingdom from the EU political commentariat. From virtue of its geography and its 20th century history the UK doesn’t share some of the experiences that for good or for ill shaped the founding of the EU. But the virtues of a European common market and some harmonisation of trade standards seemed like a good idea in an increasingly globalised world and I still feel that way.
Somewhere the dream changed from a Common Market to a United States of Europe
Peston’s programme really highlighted the emotional hold of the dream of a United States of Europe on a lot of the people that drove the direction of the EU. Now I’m not even fundamentally against the concept of a USE but I think it is clear to see that there isn’t the common cause as yet across the people of Europe. And it seems the most bizarrely stupid idea to first go for economic harmonisation before political harmonisation. There are lots of superficial reasons why a common currency would be great and indeed I was all for it in the early days. But then I’m an engineer not an economist so all I saw was it was a right PITA to change currencies all the time. I was wrong about all that but it didn’t matter because I wasn’t part of making the decisions.
However I’m grateful that the old curmudgeon Gordon Brown inserted a hefty spanner in the works as far as the UK is concerned. Indeed I had personal unpleasant experience of currency unions before in paying 14% mortgage interest in the early 1990s when Britain was trying to match the Deutschemark.
We couldn’t do it, for the same reason as the Greeks can’t do it. Say it quietly, but we just aren’t prepared to work as hard as the Germans. So we like to have more inflation that the Germans to lose some of the difference by quietly eroding the value of capital assets. And in the end it’s more important that we live according to our cultural values of work and thrift as opposed to profligacy and ‘have it now’, as long as we’re prepared to eat the consequences as far as it affects our ability to buy foreign stuff.
Lose that ability like the Eurozone does and you need to reintroduce capital controls. Which is patently not the aim of the Eurozone, so we have the curious result of a Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates without the capital controls necessary to make it work. Result misery as Wilkins Micawber would say. Of course Germany could pay for the deficits other countries are running but for some strange reason that doesn’t play very well with the man on the Berlin S-Bahn even if the deadweight of some of that Greek deficit is keeping the Euro down and the man on the S-Bahn in a job.
Lest we forget the most obvious example of a United States, America shared a common language and a largely common culture but started off with a very different economic structure across the States. The slave-powered and agricultural Confederate South of the US was very different to the industrial and mercantilist Union of the North.
They had a bloody good punch-up in the mid 1800s to resolve their differences about how the economy should be run ISTR. I’m not all that sure that we want that sort of thing in Europe but looking at all the finger pointing and nationalist abuse going on between say Germany and Greece at the moment forcing both countries to agree on how to run an economy isn’t leading to peace, harmony and a collective outpouring of kum-bay-yah.

peace, harmony and a collective outpouring of kumbayah, apparently
If European politicians wanted a United States of Europe I’d say the experience of the United States of America should have warmed them up to that unifying economics isn’t the first place to start. I haven’t seen anything to date that changes this
If a USE is such a great thing then it needs to be sold to the electorate first.
I have no idea how you sell the USE to a bunch of disparate nation-states most of which have centuries of ways of living differently to their neighbours. And I’ve got no idea of why this idea is so magnetic to particularly a certain generation of European politicians. The EU has done much for a more general understanding and interchange between Europeans – I led a working party in a EU RACE project in the 1990s and drank a lot of beer in European cities as well as getting some research done into optical transmission systems. As an incidental improvement of a bunch of young Europeans’ awareness of each other’s countries they did well.
However in the specific case of my team it didn’t lead to any of us having a greater desire for a United States of Europe, though we had an enhanced appreciation for the particular qualities of the various nations
Give me a wet fish for Angela with her ‘the answer is More Europe’
Every time I hear Angela Merkel say the answer is more Europe I want to slap her round the chops with a wet haddock. The first answer to being in a dreadful muddle is to stop. Above all stop digging. Then to ask yourself how you got here and how you’re going to get out.

More Europe? Nah more haddock methinks...
More Europe ie hurrying up the creation of a United States of Europe is one answer. You’d probably have to kick out the island kingdom but perhaps that’s good riddance. However Merkel might want to look at the U.S. Europe she’s creating. It will be full of people who hate her guts with good reason. The Greeks have fouled up their economy, and will hate her guts for Austerity. The Germans will hate her guts for making them pay for the Greeks’ retiring at 50. Is this motley rabble really a recipe for lasting success? I never really understood why she wanted to go this way before I saw Peston’s programme, because the numinous quality of the United States of Europe just isn’t part of British culture. I don’t think it’s part of mainland European culture either but in the interviews with the politicians it does seem to be part of their culture.
If a USE is desirable then we should have started a lot earlier to make it a politically desirable destination, rather than fudge it by trying to slam the economics together to make people bow to the political union from a state of fear. Seems a strange way to carry on. Basically if you have to trap the people of Europe in a political union then either you haven’t made it attractive enough or you’re pushing something people just don’t want to do. Either way this is not what democratically elected politicians should be doing.
It also doesn’t look pretty when to get things done you have to eject elected politicians and start telling others what they should do. Merkel is perfectly within her rights to say you Greeks ain’t gonna be getting our lovely German Euros unless you sign up to our horrible austerity. Then she needs to back off, STFU and leave the Greeks to sort out what they’re going to do. It’s not going to be fun in Greece whatever happens. But it should be up to the Greeks which particular version of Hell they’re going to run with. More Europe is one answer. It’s not the answer until enough Europeans have decided that it is.

This is what real money looked like when Helmut Schlesinger was at work
Robert Peston left the conclusion open. So let’s leave it to the erstwhile president of the Bundesbank Helmut Schlesinger who saw Britain unceremoniously ejected from the ERM in 1992:
“One should consider that monetary unions, or more precisely, coin unions, have survived for a long time, but never for more than three or four decades.
“My personal experience with the German currency is that it has undergone changes at three occasions during my lifetime. When I was born, it was changed into the reichsmark. When I began to work, it became the deutsche mark. And when I became a pensioner, it became the euro.
“The average lifetime of a currency is, as you can see, limited, as a rule, except when it is a great state with an endlessly long, beautiful history, from the kings of the Middle Ages until the Queen nowadays. Then you have got a long monetary history.”
But in Europe, that is not the case. “And I would say that either we get the United States of Europe, that is an actual political union, and then that political union gets its own currency. But then it is no monetary union any longer, but the currency of that new state.
“Or let’s stay with the current situation which we find ourselves in at the moment, and then it could be that this monetary union will not necessarily dissolve, but change, extend, scale down. I do not know. My horizon, my prognosis is very limited in time.”
Each generation has their own crisis. This one is ours. What do democracies do when the time has finally come to stop grabbing debt with both hands and start living within our means? I hope to God that if Schlesinger is right we have the Euro scaling down. Because IMO Europe is not politically ready for a political union. And I am still young enough to expect to see the European Civil War that would result within twenty or thirty years.

The sort of mutual fellow-feeling you build the United States of Europe on?
I don’t think Britain would enter a USE, there’s not the taste for it here. I hope the Euro isn’t precious enough to the people of Europe to be prepared to die for it. I have nothing whatsoever against a United States of Europe but it has to be done the right way – by making it attractive and probably over several generations if that’s really what people want. Then it can have its own currency, which may or may not be called the Euro.
The problem with Kohl and Miterrand’s version of the United States of Europe is that it is forged in the light of a primeval fear of the power of the Third Reich. In fighting the shadows cast against the wall of their deepest fears they started to create another uncontrollable Beast in the same image. Let it go guys. Europe may have reason to be grateful to the Greeks if they are the extreme case that showed the folly of achieving political union via monetary union.
economy: CEO pay Clinton fat cats
by ermine
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Fat Cat wants no Restrictions on Cream
Well, who’d have thunk it? Boss of Standard Chartered considers proposed European legislation to
cap bonuses to no more than salary
as preposterous. Usual codswallop “Bankers claim it could increase risk by leading to higher salaries. ”

Now I don’t think that’s such a bad idea at all. In fact it’s such a good idea I’m surprised it came out of the European Parliament
Note it is not a restriction on pay. It is a restriction on the balance of pay and bonuses. The trouble with the bonus culture is not that the bonuses are large, it is the total lack of transparency and general moral hazard. The size of the bonus is only known after the fact.
There are some sorts of people we’ve always incentivised by bonuses, like the salesforce, who usually earn a low base pay and a larger bonus. However, in the not so distant past a decent salary and a modest bonus used to be enough to even get CEOs out of bed in the morning. The reason bonuses work for a salesforce is that the output can be easily quantified over the last year. Whereas the value added by a CEO is the devil’s own job to quantify. We can’t control for all the variables, so the default assumption is that he’s really great at this job. Why does that work for the CEO better than for some middle-management grunt? Because the CEO is the boss. What he says goes.
Businessweek seems to agree with me. It all started going wrong in the early 1990s, when Bill Clinton favoured bonuses related to performance. Now Clinton was a reasonably sharp cookie, but he achieved an epic fail here. “You get what you measure”, but if you’re in charge of the operation you also “measure what you get”.
That’s the rotten core at the heart of the whole performance related pay ethos. Who sets the Board’s targets – well they do. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? So they inflate their pay, and good old Bill gave them the keys to the corporate safes. Company employees at the top have been looting it ever since, quite legally. Maybe it isn’t such a surprise that shareholder returns have been desultory since the dot-com bust, as this legalised thievery gathered pace.

What Diamond Geezer Bob did for Barclays shareholder value last year.
Now Diamond Bob might be worth every penny of his £17.7m pay over at Barclays, though some shareholders beg to differ. But wouldn’t it be so much more transparent to say this year we’ll pay him £9m, with a performance related bonus of £9m? It used to be how pay worked, it’s how it works (with the figures adjusted) for lowly grunts like me and everybody else below board level. And we’d see beforehand just how much Barclays is planning to pay it’s CEO.
Oh and we wouldn’t end up with reckless tossers taking excessive risks because when your bonus is 90% of your pay it incentivises you to bet the farm on nutty stuff that sometimes screws up so much that taxpayers have to bail you out.
In the end, what’s so wrong with a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work, with the chance to double it if you fiddle the books right are a talented superstar with extremely rare talents capable of adding serious shareholder value? Shareholders, seeing all that awesome value you added last year may increase your pay this year and up the ante. Looks like a win-win here. There’s nothing wrong with high pay, if it really is necessary. But there’s everything wrong with a lack of transparency and control. It’s the shareholders that capitalise the company and take the risk, not particularly the employees. When Fred the Shred sunk RBS, all he lost was his job, it’s not like he was at risk of losing his life savings.
Thes Big Swinging Dicks need to relearn these facts of life, and that 50:50 pay:bonus split limit could be a good place to start IMO.









