31 Jan 2017, 12:03pm
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  • The Brexit Boost conundrum – this bell tolls for me

    Unlike young folk saving for a pension, I don’t have a long multi-decade accumulating  investment horizon. In about five years time at the most, the rocket engines fueled by my stored earned income will splutter and die. I have already earned pretty much all the human capital-derived income I will ever earn, and it is only the process of extracting it from SIPPs and some portion of a future DB pension commencement lump sum that will contribute to my holding. The portfolio will then reach steady state, and I can use the natural yield as a tax-free income.

    I’m also an active investor – well, I try to choose my time of buying at lows, though that’s getting really tough to do, though early last year was a good chance, even if what I did buy was classed as passive. So to track how I am doing I unitise annually, in January. Brexit lifted my unit price 34%. last year. That’s not quite as much as Vanguard Lifestrategy100 which lifted 37%, which is telling me something I guess. I can at least be chipper about being a lot more up than the Slow and Steady Passive Portfolio. In fairness I should note these guys are 20% in bonds which puzzles me as they are at least 10 years younger than I am, they are at least 20 years off retirement age. I don’t do bonds because my defined benefit pension is as bond-like as you can get.

    A 34% lift is not something that’s going to happen again. It’s not like the portfolio is worth 34% more, a goodly part of the boost is the 20% Brexit Tax we’ll all be paying on food and fuel etc. As the Ermine curls up to go to sleep, in the distance there is the sound of a bell tolling.

    Let’s imagine though that you’re a 65-year old UK retired investor, the long run is 50+ years, and the jolly boost to our portfolios from the weak pound we’ve seen over the past 12 months instead works against you over the next 5-10, cutting your net worth and income by 20%, at a time when you’re reliant on that portfolio for your living and you have no new savings from work etc, perhaps for years to come.

    Hmm. I guess that bell tolls for me. I’m still a fair way off 65 and even so the long run ain’t 50 years, but heck, I want it to boost my disposable income.

    I don’t see it as a reason to sell anything I have for the hedged variant. And my personal view is that the toll on the UK economy due to Brexit hasn’t even got its boots on yet, because we haven’t left the EU. So there’s room for more of a suckout to the pound. Rampant Brexiteers tell us that the pound has been overvalued pretty much since forever, and the fall doesn’t really matter, indeed it’s good for the common man because it will shift our economy away from finagling finance into doing something real for a change. For all I know that may be how it pans out, though I suspect the common man will still be shat on because the robots will take the jobs in those manufacturing companies, but he’ll be paying the Brexit Tax on imported essential stuff like food and fuel. But what the hell, he has got his country back so I’m sure that will be a price worth paying.

    Unlike Monevator, I fully expect the Euro to go titsup in my lifetime, which I guess makes me a sort of long term Brexiteer, though not for the usual reason that I hate hearing the sound of Polish on the High Street. That may well send the pound up, and the value of my portfolio plunging. It so happens I have a few years of ISA contributions to make, I have a last capital-gains-tax embargoed unwrapped holding to sell and some of my SIPP PCLS as cash. It makes some sense to me, now the pound is down in the toilet to buy some hedged to GBP Dev world exUK or global ex UK. Sure, we may well have further to fall but I’d hope most of Brexit is priced in. And I have enjoyed a lot of lift from the Brexit tax. Be a bit of a shame to give that up if Brexit turned out to be less stupid, so  carrying three or four years of ISA contributions as GBP hedged foreign index stuff for a decade could soften that sort of volatility a bit. Echoing Scott Fitzgerald, I don’t think any portfolio is complete unless it has some exposure to something the owner totally doesn’t believe in. I believe Brexit will be be a local economic disaster that will make the masses that voted for it rue the day they were Pied-Pipered over the edge by rich people who can afford the suckout. I might be wrong. It always pays to bet a bit against yourself. It’s worked for me before 😉

    In the big picture a putative reversal of the Brexit tax because the EU really was a sheet anchor to the inherent dynamism of Blighty’s economy will be great for me, even if it hammers my ISA. That’s because my main pension will be worth more in real terms, ie the same as it was before last June’s brain fart, and that will do me more good than the reversal of that jolly boost to my portfolio.

    Goya’s The Sleep of Reason produces Monsters drawing from 1799

    A place where the Brexit Boost conundrum has turned into a major ‘Abandon ship now!’ signal is in my SIPP, where until yesterday morning most of it was invested in VWRL and gold. I’ve left the gold rump but that VWRL is 20% up in Great British Pounds on what I paid for it, and since my SIPP will be drawn down to nearly 0 in two years not four I have absolutely no business being in the stock market there. FFS, there’s a man-child in the White House running amok doing The Will Of The People™, while the checks and balances set by the Founding Fathers seem to have failed as Reason sleeps. And I was exposed to this because 50% of VWRL is in the US, on the back of an eight year bull run. Time to take my Brexit Boost off the table in that SIPP. I’ve taken enough damage from the domestic version of The Will Of The People™ this year, and it’s not even like I will get any upside if Trump Makes America Great Again, because he’s looking to do that by Making Everywhere Else A Bit Shit to pay for it. So I’m outta there. Although if DJT Makes America Great Again by building all those roads and bridges using American construction workers and it boosts the US economy I guess the VWRL in my ISA will tip its hat to him.

    27 Jan 2017, 11:21am
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  • the siren song of the tax-free bung

    Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war, is: “Do not march on Moscow. Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good”.

    Monty

    So it is with pensions. Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of personal finance is: “Never give up any defined benefit pension”. Various people want to try it, so many that they had to set up a law that you need to take independent financial advice when transferring even a DC pension which has been run by the same administrators as a DB pension, never mind actually trying to transfer a DB pension into a SIPP.  Nevertheless I am thinking of giving up some of mine, for a 25% tax-free bung (PCLS). Not right now, but at a later stage. Not only that, I am not planning to invest it, merely use it for a consumption good, although not a wasting one 1.

    I’ve already take a bite of a PCLS when I sprang my additional voluntary contributions into a SIPP. I’d saved roughly a third of the notional capital behind my main defined benefit (DB) pension into defined contribution AVCs in my last three years at work, ramming my pay down to nearly minimum wage at times and winning both tax and NI savings using salary sacrifice, saving in three years what it had taken me nearly 8 years normal accrual of employer and employee savings.It’s not a recipe for a huge amount of consumer spending fun, but you get to buy a lot of your time back from The Man.

    Those were the days when there was little point in me taking out a SIPP, because I’d have had to convert 3/4 of the SIPP to an annuity for life, where I really wanted an annuity for five years until my DB pension kicked in. By taking out AVCs I wanted enough tax-free lump sum to be able to invest to compensate for the actuarial reduction in drawing the DB pension in my early 50s 2. There are many good points about a DB pension, but flexibility in retirement age is not one of them. In general you want to take a DB pension close to whatever the normal retirement age (NRA) is for the scheme, which in my case is 60 for most of my contributions. And I wanted to retire at 52. The inflexibility of pensions was also why I chose to build up ISA savings at the same time, because I made this choice according to the old rules.

    Then George Osborne wandered along and shook up the system so you could front run a DB pension with a SIPP, running it flat between your early retirement age and the DB pension NRA. So I grabbed this opportunity, started to run down my AVCs in a SIPP and left the ISA alone. As it happened the uplift of the Brexit brain-fart has increased my nominal SIPP capital so it will take me to a year later than 60 if I want to sneak it all out below the tax threshold, which hasn’t been lifted to compensate for the 20% devaluation in the worth of the pound. On the upside the 25% PCLS got a Brexit boost in my ISA, so I probably won all round. The idea of paying tax hurts, though, when I didn’t need to on the original plan.

    Still, we’ll have well and truly Brexitted by the time I am 60 and that nice fellow Michael Gove tells me that it will all go swimmingly so maybe the supine pound will have increased back to its former Imperial glory, making each pound count like it used to in the days of the Raj. I’d settle for its power in the 1960s when you used to get twelve Deutschemarks for a pound 3. One can live in hope that it’ll be all right on the night and a pint of beer won’t cost £10 4 a few years hence…

    A pint of Brexit Doom? That’ll be £10, sir.

    So I now ask the DB admin guys what I would get if I draw at 58, 60, and 62. The reason for that is I have 23 years DB pension accrued, for 20 years the promise was to pay from 60, then they switched that to 65 for the last three years. They demand I take both accruals at the same time and don’t pay any uplift on the NRA 60 contributions. A moment’s thought indicates that delaying two years after 60 should give me much less uplift than the difference between 58 and 60, but it’s always nice to have one’s gut feel confirmed in writing.

    It was. I lose 5% of the pension at 60 if I draw it two years early, and I gain 1% if I draw it at 62. So it’s daft to delay after 60. I then go and factor in the  effect of tax, because although the headline actuarial reduction is 5% for two years 5 it so happens that all the difference is well over the basic rate tax threshold. So I get to lose 20% of it, making the actuarial reduction 4% net. I have already done all my duty paying tax for one lifetime, so it really doesn’t make my heart bleed that HMRC will lose out each year. Stuff ’em.

    What about taking another 25% PCLS?

    It appears that I can still take a pension commencement lump sum, which reduces the annual pension by ~ 25%, natch. Whether this is a good idea or not is all about two things. One is the commutation rate, ie if you take the PCLS and divide by the annual loss of pension what is the ratio. The other thing is how you feel about the stability of the pension scheme, changes in tax rates and investment returns, and if there is anything else you want to do with the money like pay off a mortgage. Taking the PCLS insulates me against changes in tax rates and the stability of the pension scheme, but of course if I were to invest it I get exposed to investment risk. I can easily pay my essential bills from the reduced pension since it is more than my current income. The natural yield of my ISA would make up more than the net difference to where it was without the lump sum,  and I’ve never needed to draw income from the ISA yet.

    It so happens that I have a use for a lump sum in a couple of years, I may want to move a little bit upmarket housing-wise. I am hoping that Brexit slows down or hopefully hammers the housing market. Unlike every other Briton I don’t personally believe that property is a good investment at all, but sod it, I have come to the stage where I just want a little bit more house and I’m not really looking forward to the experience of  when my current  semi-detached neighbours go to a retirement home in a few years and I end up living next door to a baby 6, or a teenager into Throbbing Gristle, or the little toe-rag that used to live next door to my mother who used to do his baseball practice. Against the upstairs bedroom party wall FFS, just as well she was getting hard of hearing but still needed earplugs to deal with that little tyke…

    So the 25% lump sum is attractive. The commutation factor is 20 (ie I get 20 times the loss of annual gross income as a tax-free lump sum). However, since that is gross income, I would get to pay tax on the income. Probably tax and NI in the coming years, since the differing tax rates on earned and pension income is an obvious target for governments to hit without raising tax rates. So when I look at the difference in net income, the commutation rate is 25 times, possibly more if the dreaded integration of tax and NI comes to pass. A PCLS is tax-free.

    Everybody says don’t ever sell any of your valuable DB annuity promise. I have some good reasons here, and I have enough to be able to do fine surrendering the income. I take the point that you shouldn’t just blow it on a Lamborghini, although pouring it into the bottomless toilet that is British residential property isn’t much better IMO, but at least it is a fixed asset. Another factor is that I am ten years older than Mrs Ermine, and a DB pension pays a widow’s pension of a half . So if/when I kick it before her, assuming property hasn’t fallen by a half in real terms, she has more preserved value from the DB pension 7, though she will need to move to realise it. There are other ways to hedge that risk though – term life insurance to insure my death to the value of the PCLS until Mrs Ermine reaches her three-score years and ten is about £500 pa

    Housing? WTF?

    The general theme on housing seems people want to downsize post work, but although I don’t want a huge upgrade I want to get away from some hazards. I am probably housing-lite relative to many readers of a similar age; my ISA was probably worth a little more than my current house before the Brexit boost. Most people my age at The Firm seemed to have the majority of their networth in housing. They probably share SHMD Jim’s perspective and want to change down, not up. But hell, I had a different experience of housing. And while you can go into a retirement complex in your 50s, I don’t yet feel that I have one foot in the grave, so I am happy to swim against the tide here.

    I have a couple of years to mull this over before actually needing to do it. A lot can happen over two years, and there’s no need to rush it, but it was worth getting those quotes from the pension administrators so I can sketch out an action plan, even if it does go against rule 1.

     

    Notes:

    1. Cars and iPhones are wasting assets, because they are degrade, and are worth less in ten years than they are now. Other assets, like gold, housing and worthwhile education, preserve value across the years because they don’t degrade, although the value can still be volatile
    2. I had protected rights so I could have drawn it from 50, not 55
    3. In that case the large Brexit increase in unitised price of my ISA will become a large decrease. But then I’ll be living in a country with cheap beer, energy and all that good stuff! I am also toying with some of Monevator’s hedged ETFs
    4. Londoners will probably tell me it’s already £15 in City watering holes, but such usury has yet to creep out into the sticks, because the rest of Britain is a lot poorer than you guys
    5. I find this surprisingly low but that’s what the estimate says when I compute the difference. Are they really expecting me to live for 40 years after 60, such that two extra years of payment is 5% of the total expected period of payment?
    6. I lived next door to people that had a baby in a terraced house in my early thirties. I had to move my bedroom to get any sleep.
    7. this is a complicated calculation, because it depends on how long I live as to whether the total amount coming into the household ends up more or less. If I really get to 100 taking the PCLS will have been a bad move
    10 Jan 2017, 11:10am
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  • A great last year on the markets and a survival plan for 2017

    This post lacks a little bit of the bonhomie and cheer normally expected at this time of year. Sorry about that and Happy New Year!

    A rheumy Ermine rises from his den and sticks a head out, to hear wild celebrations of stock market success from otherwise sober fellows like Monevator’s TA. What is all this jubilation I hear? January is normally the time to unitise one’s portfolio at Ermine Towers, but what with a hit of the flu, and the thudding recollection that last year was the Year of the Man-Child of Trump and Boris, meant I couldn’t really hack that until now. I recall last year as a desperate battle to simply try and survive on the markets when all around was going tits-up as Britain decided to do untold damage to the one thing we seemed to be good at, making money out of money. True, none of it seemed to ever leak outside the M25, other than in making house prices go up, but nevertheless, I don’t see Britain as a full-employment haven of manufacturing industry any more, the universal income seems a better way to try and reproduce the 1950s than cursing our nearest neighbours and the horse they rode in on.

    So what happened then? I mean yeah, people are talking highs for the FTSE100, but let’s not forget that these highs are measured against a ruler that is 10 inches long rather than a foot. The whole Brexit brigade are celebrating because the sky hasn’t fallen and these highs are symbolic of the market’s view of the protean powerhouse that is Brexit Britain. Clearly the standards of what passes for intelligent discourse at the Telegraph have dropped into the gutter when they allow headlines to escape like

    FTSE 100 set to match longest record-setting streak in 33-year history as pound slides on Brexit fears

    At least in earlier days you’d try and push the second clause out of the headline and preferably out of the lede too, you don’t want the old buffers reading the yellow press to choke on their tea and marmalade sandwiches with the realisation the FTSE100 is high because the pound is sliding. It’s like celebrating that the operation was successful and cured the pain – because the patient died on the operating table. Fortunately there are cooler heads to set you right on the FTSE100’s stellar run. Looks like bonhomie and good cheer is in short supply elsewhere in the PF scene, bloody Remoaners the lot of y’all, talkin’ bodacious Brexit Britain down.

    Haven’t you heard? Magical unicorns are in – all those tedious facts are sooo last year, dahlink, dreaming is in these days

    Have you no vision sirs, and for heck’s sake STFU on those facts, we don’t do facts these days, we do dreams of magical unicorns?

    Nevertheless, the stock market rise shows one way to perhaps try and stave off the personal implications of last June’s brain-fart. Although the Ermine instinctively dived into the stock market in those troubled times it seems others are now turning this into real numbers. Basically cash in GBP is doomed, for Gawd’s sake get the hell out of there. Preferably into foreign assets, although the FTSE100 ain’t all bad – it’s roughly 70% foreign assets anyway. That glug-glug sound you hear is the sound of the pound in your pocket draining away down the plughole.We can’t blame the Gnomes of Zurich for this one like in Harold Wilson’s day 1, this one is entirely our own work.

    It is permanently destroying the value of my deferred final salary pension, possibly ameliorated by the inflation linking up to a point, it is destroying cash savings, to the extent that while I was holding all my AVC money in a SIPP as cash on the grounds I was going to call on it in the next five years, after that vote I rammed about half into a mixture of gold and index-trackers, on the grounds that I’d rather be shafted by my own fuckwittery than that of other people, or at least I’d like to share their view of the world if I am going to take the shaft for theirs. The movers and shakers among the bodacious Brexit brigade have enough non-cash assets and don’t rely on wage income, so they can survive the fall in the pound. The odious Nigel “I want my life back” Farage was a broker, though not a particularly successful one according to the FT. He still earned more than I have ever done, even as a scummy MEP. There are shitloads of people that are going to want their lives back, Nige, hopefully a load of them will be people who voted for your project though I’m sure they’ll blame some other poor bugger. I look forward to the first disaffected Brexit prole upending a pint of beer all over your noggin when he discovers he’s paying 20% more for it, there still aren’t any jobs and there are still people talking furrin’ on the streets because we need vegetable pickers who know one end of a carrot from another even if they call it a marchewka.

    A lying sack of shit in front of one of his lies. How do you know Boris is talking cock? “His lips are moving”. As the Atlantic said of the Donald “The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.”

    I want to be closer to the place where the movers and shakers are. They needed votes, so they told everyone that they wouldn’t hear Polish on the streets any more and the NHS would get £350million more every week. Well, I guess it’ll need it to make up for the loss of staff numbers, eh? Wonder what the Red Cross will be saying about the humanitarian crisis in NHS in a couple of years when all those EU immigrants working in our elderly care homes f*ck right off back to Eastern Europe where they belong.

    Brexiteers sold the idea to people who probably can’t afford to take the hit in their wages, and who will see the price of food and fuel rise, will see interest rates rise to more normal levels 2 and generally come to enjoy the fruits of their cleverness. Well done you.

    Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

    Let’s hear it from Michael “Experts, schmexperts, WTF do they know

    We are still far too unequal a society, with wealth and power concentrated in too few hands. Our economy is still too dependent on financial services and we don’t invest enough in science and technology. Working class voices are crowded out of our economic debate. We have relied too much on cheap imported labour, which has meant wages for working people have been kept too low and we haven’t taken the right steps to improve productivity.

    The Bank of England’s monetary policy has made wealthy owners of property even richer at the same time as our chronic shortage of affordable homes has got worse. University vice-chancellors pay themselves hundreds of thousands of pounds a year but technical education doesn’t get the investment it needs and there aren’t enough good school places. Government squanders billions on vanity projects every year while our tried and trusted NHS needs more funding.

    The one thing I was unable to detect in Michael Gove’s blatherings was any hint of exactly how it was the EU who were responsible for much this litany of woe, with the possible exception of being the source of some of that cheap imported labour. Gove is in the UK party of government. You guys are in charge of this mess, not the EU, which at least did a bit to invest in science and technology according to the Royal Society. Of the 13 issues listed in that diatribe the EU is a problem in the labour and an asset in the science and tech; all the other problems are homegrown. So how exactly is most of this going to improve with Brexit, Mikey? Particularly the science and tech, we really aren’t back in the days of Robert Watson-Watt and splendid isolation, science is more collaborative these days. I worked on some of these European research projects in the 1990s, they really were a little bit bigger than one company could resource even 20 years ago. Experts, schmexperts, eh?

    Some coherent thinking coming out of the Brexit camp at last

    The thousand typewriting monkeys that are the architects of Brexit seem to be coalescing on  some sort of narrative after all, although the parrot trotting out Brexit means Brexit still hasn’t been knocked off its perch yet. Back to Michael Gove, in his triumphal summing up on Brexit Central.

    Once Article 50 is triggered, we should be very clear about our simple, straightforward, generous approach to leaving. We don’t want or need to be in the single market – outside we can control our own borders, laws and taxes. Inside we’re trapped. We don’t want to be bound by being members of the customs union. Outside we can negotiate new trade deals with emerging economies. Inside we’re trapped. And we don’t need to waste months talking about new tariffs. We don’t have any at the moment with Europe, we don’t want to impose any and attempts to over-complicate the issue are a trap.

    If we guarantee the rights of all EU citizens currently here to stay, pledge to continue our role as the principal European defender of NATO’s eastern border, offer to continue co-operation on science funding and agree to respect EU regulations when selling to their market then we could – quickly – reach an amicable agreement.

    It’s amazingly simple, really. Tell the Remoaners to STFU, waltz out of the EU cleanly whistling a dancing tune, keep hold of all that cheap imported labour you were bitching about earlier, ‘cos knocking that was feelgood dog-whistling like the NHS bus and you actually quite like them cheap Polish plumbers for your Islington pied a terre, and then tap gently on the EU door and go “psst, how’s about we play a deal again?”. I actually share some of Gove’s sentiment, you do need to go big or go home and walk out of the bloody door first. However some of the potential problems are summed up in the actions of spurned Linda –

    Linda didn’t appreciate Graham running out on her. The EU may feel similarly – as European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said, Brexit was “not an amicable divorce”, adding “it was not exactly a tight love affair anyway”

    Usually when you tell people to piss right off it tends to offend. We humans are not perfectly rational decision makers. Brexit and Trump Q.E.D. We may just end up with a load of broken heart stickers around the place and the keys to the car industry and half the finance industry  in the Channel. Nevertheless, if there is to be any coherence to Brexit, then it isn’t going to come from trying to ghost from the dinner party but still drink some party Martinis in the cloakroom. It means going right out the door, closing it properly behind us, taking the hit on Britain’s largest industry, which is probably still resilient enough to do business with some part of the world. And then starting over. Hoping the gravity theory of trade is a load of bollocks and distance and shared culture is entirely irrelevant to trade, because people in this country have had enough of experts.If I may trouble you, Mr Gove, with some tiresome facts

    Casual inspection of the purple bit on the left indicates most of Brexit Britain’s exports go to the EU, which is geographically and culturally closer to us than the US and China, offering support for the gravitation theory of trade flows. Just sayin’

    We need magical thinking, apparently, in the Govian world. I’m up for that.

    Magickal thinking Mikey boy? That’s not magical thinking. I’ll show you real magical thinking…

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for the right sort of magic; the chaos magician RuneSoup’s deconstruction of the West’s current economic predicament is highly cogent narrative of how we got to such a sorry pass from a refreshingly different angle. I note he isn’t a fan of a universal income for some fairly decent reasons which may cause me to change my mind about that, cos unlike you, Mr Gove, I am not so smart as to be right all the time. Sometimes I talk arrant bollocks, and I’ve found it pays to consider the possibility of that happening once in a while. I commend the practice to you, Govey-boy. You just can’t knock RuneSoup’s summing up

    What I would dearly like is for everyone to temporarily set aside their declared home on a spectrum of political representation set up in response to the realities of a Victorian industrial economy, take a calming breath, and read some ideas they find dangerous. Make your heads hurt a bit. But above all go decentral rather than central.

    Because no one has a model for where we are in 2017. You will be better served by thinking quantitatively -ie with actual data- rather that tribally. It is a fascinating moment in the history of money.  There are huge opportunities to be found in solving the problems we going to have to solve. The risk/reward potential has never been higher.

    That’s the Brexiteers’ fundamental problem – tribal thinking. It’s the Remainers’ problem too, but they lost the fight so what they think doesn’t really matter. There is no runner-up in a binary choice.

    I need to get on the toff Brexiteers’ side rather than the proletarian side, and that means side with Capital, not Labour, and foreign capital at that.

    I need assets out of GBP cash and in something else. There is absolutely no point in trying to resist Brexit. It’s big, it’s bad and it’s coming to ruin my wealth. One thing that is deeply in my advantage is that I have earned pretty much all the income I am ever going to earn 3, so income now is money made on money, and different rules seem to apply to that. For starters, if I were earning £100k a year beginning of 2016, I’d now be earning £80k equivalent (it’s worse than that because tax thresholds haven’t been lifted 20%). But if I had a share portfolio of £2mill and were getting 5% on that in 2016, then this year I would have 2.6 million and would be earning £130k at 5% on that 4, with the able assistance of the proletariat that I’d suckered onto my side. Obviously I would still be eating the 20% fall in real value making about £104,000, but that’s a lot better than Rosie the Riveter on £20k which would now be earning a real pay of £16k. If you’re gonna be a Brexiteer, be a toff Brexiteer with capital behind you, because you are better able to survive, and perhaps profit from the fall in the pound. Unfortunately I don’t have £1 million, so I am on the wrong side of this fight, though probably a lot less on the wrong side of it than many who voted Brexit.

    Plus of course if you employ riveters to make your widgets for you then the value of what you pay them falls and you win. The riveters will see their real incomes fall and their children will be stunted, but hopefully they voted for Brexit and think the hardship’s a price well worth paying to get their country back and stop hearing foreign languages in the street which seems to really piss them off. Obviously if they didn’t vote for Brexit then they have my commiserations. Life gives you lemons, though here I think the result will be more Grapes of Wrath than lemonade.

    Unitised returns look good and the non-Brexit lift make up for a couple of crap years

    Some things have got to get worse before they get better, so I need to examine the role of Capital in my life, because my deferred FS pension is going to take a Brexit hit. A FS pension is deferred pay, so I am still with the wage slaves in the impact of that, although I can press a better case for with inflation rises, up to a point. Now fortunately, as an investor I don’t do bonds and I don’t really do cash nowadays unless is ILSCs. I computed my unitised ISA performance over the last year, which was a 34% increase in unit value. In the past I overthought this massively, but now I seek simplicity. You unitise a portfolio by declaring year dot (2009/10 in my case) at £10/unit, and then you have as many units as your portfolio value divided by 10. The next year you put in an ISA’s worth of cash and buy units at £10, adding (ISA allowance)/(unit price=10) to the number of units you started out with. In January print out the value of your portfolio plus cash. You know how many units you have from last year, so dividing the value of your portfolio by the number of units tells you the new unit price. Hopefully it’s up, and up more than the value of inflation for that year 😉 Monevator tells you how to deal with putting money in and out of a unitized protfolio. I have only put money in, so life is simpler for me. I should also remember that 20% of that 34% increase isn’t real, it’s simply I am measuring with a 10-inch ruler not a 12-inch ruler due to the fall in the £. But I shouldn’t be such a miserable git, my unit price went up by over 1/4 last year regardless. Obviously there is a humdinger of a crash coming at some point, the bull run out of the 2009 crash is long in the tooth now. Which will take this all back down to size, although at least there’s no tremendous need for a reversion to the mean from the illusory Brexit boost. Some things you don’t get to un-cock-up in a hurry.

    The trouble with this approach…

    is called Donald Trump, because I am investing in only two funds in my ISA in this tax year, VWRL and a Legal and General DevWorld ex UK, although I have plenty of accumulated shares in my HYP and a lot of more racy EM stock from a couple of years ago when I miscalled the bottom 😉 Even my stake in that bad boy Putin‘s operation  is up 16%. I don’t think this is particularly because Putin is doing something right, more to do with the brain-fart otherwise known as Brexit lifting the apparent price, along with a fair amount of my other mis-called EM stock. It’s an ill wind…

    Both of the funds have over 50% of the US, the US has been overpriced since 2009 and it’s still overpriced. At the risk of tempting fate with the dreaded ‘this time it’s different’ I came to accept American exceptionalism because too many of the massive global and tech companies are US only – there is simply no Amazon, Facebook, Apple anywhere else, and I came to the conclusion that I had to suck it up and drink the Kool-Aid, albeit in index-fund form. I have no ambition to stockpick the USA. But I was wrong to shun the US on valuation and have no doubt given up a lot of money because of that.

    Very tough call, our Donald. Here is a dude who disseminates policy by Twitter. The (liberal, losing-case) Atlantic summed up the problem well

    The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.

    Trump might actually be good for America in the short/medium term, but it’s hard to tell. If he is, then he will run up the debt, as Republican administrations tend to do for all their hard talking, but we can hope he can also increase spending. Structural problems will still abound – the robots will still be coming for Americans’ jobs, and just like the Brexiteers, Trump won’t be able to bring the 1950s back. At least he doesn’t have to bring the days of Empire back. At the moment we have no real way of knowing, no way of detecting the signal in the noise spouted forth by this man-child. It is possible that he is brighter than he appears, and he’s clearly more cunning. Like the Brexiteers, Americans voted for change, and change is what they will get. Whether it is the change they want remains to be seen.

    I’m not sure I am comfortable increasing my US exposure beyond the end of this tax year. The PE ratio is shockingly high for someone used to UK values

    S&P500 PE

    where I usually want a good reason to pay more than 15-18 times earnings. And yet the US market looks like it is historically on higher earnings multiples. This year I was lucky, I bought from both a old Cash ISA moved into shares as well as this year’s allowance, before the Brexit vote. So it is likely that my fellow countrymen, in a heroic act of economic self-immolation, bought the Ermine portfolio out of overpaying for American exceptionalism. I guess there has to be some compensation for needing to get a visa to get on Eurostar, not having enough care workers when I get old and all that, and this is it. So thank you, Brexiteers. And even more thanks Lady Luck for the fact that I bought into this hopelessly overpriced region before Brexit. That ill wind again.

    It is possible as a Remainer I may one day have to offer thanks to the Brexiteers

    One word. Euro. It’s big, it’s bad, it was misbegotten from the off, and fudged by Germany when it was the Greece of the day. I went to Germany in 2004 and was surprised to see how down at heel it looked, Gerhard Schroder’s Germany went through the mill with the Euro then. Was a bit of a reversal of the time long ago when my German grandmother came to London in the mid 1960s and wondered at all the bomb-sites still left and all old bangers on the road, whereas Nürnberg was well into reconstruction with the results of the Marshall Plan and Konrad Adenauer’s Wirtschaftswunder. She obviously knew to STFU on the tactless observation “but I thought this was the place that won the war” but it did cross her mind as downright odd. So the other way when I went to Germany in the mid 2000s and saw the results of reunification and the place reaping the ‘benefit’ of the Harz reforms. Anyway, back  to the demon-child of European federalism, the Euro.

    One day this sucker could go down. Perhaps eventually Britain may join EEC-Nord 5 in a common market, where in the same way as Germans still don’t really like using credit cards because of the old collective memories of the Weimar inflation EEC-Nord will stick to economics and customs rather than trying to create a United States of Europe. That will only last a couple of generations, in the same way as Clinton repealed Glass-Steagall nearly 70 years after it was enacted in the Great Depression, but it will see me out.

    The euphoria of the 1990s following the reunification of Germany, and the triumphalism of the fall of the Soviet Union went to people’s heads, and as the European Economic Community metamorphosed in the EU we 6 told ourselves a story that there was more common cause among Europeans than there really is. The response to the Euro crisis, and the response to the refugee crisis show that this assumption of common cause does not hold across Europe – under pressure it dissolves into its nation-states in a way that states of the US just don’t do.

    Perhaps Mrs Thatcher was the agent of destruction here as well – the pre-1995 EEC had about a dozen members of broadly similar economic capacity and she promoted the expansion to the poorer states of the East specifically because she wanted to put a brake on greater integration. She didn’t like the idea of France and Germany ganging up on poor li’l ole Britain.

    “We must never forget that east of the Iron Curtain peoples who once enjoyed a full share of European culture and identity have been cut off from their roots,” she declared in 1988. “We shall always look on Warsaw, Prague and Budapest as great European cities.”

    I guess she forgot to add watch out for blowback because there was some risk of these good people being somewhat dynamic than the lumpenproletariat who weren’t prepared to get on their bikes meaning there would be hell to pay in 20 years’ time. Or more likely she had a great crystal ball and a copy of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War next to her copy of The Iliad open on the bit with the wooden horse and was biding her time. In 1975 it appears she was vaguely pro-EU but 40 years is a long time in politics.

    Either way, that assumption of common European cause is plainly not true. Even once the pesky Brits have been ejected, it still won’t be true. It’s not like the love really shows ‘twixt Merkel’s Germany and Greece, when it comes to kein Finanzunion. The EU can perfectly well survive Brexit without missing a beat. But I don’t think it can survive the economic and philosophical tensions at the heart of the misbegotten Euro project. Until Germany is prepared to shovel money into Greece without question in the same way as the State of New York 7 shovels money into Detroit, Michigan via the Federal government then the Euro will always be a source of danger. There just isn’t the same sort of carping about the defacto financial union of the US as there is about the Euro. And that’s why it’s a convincing United States of America, and that is why the EU is such an unconvincing United States of Europe. A common language would also help, as indeed would a common (and effective) military and defence policy. Even without Britain carping from the touchline this just ain’t going to happen, and while a common language isn’t necessary, as many EU nations show, the defence of the realm is one of the basic requirements of a nation state. Schengen is a lovely idea in theory, but the rubber of the ideal meets the road when you send your young men out to die to hold the borders…

    I’m still of the opinion that Brexit is a clusterfuck of the first order that will do untold damage to most UK citizens’ medium and short-term wealth. However, if there is any silver lining, then it is gaining distance between the human and fiscal misery and blood and guts raining down if and when the Euro blows. That will be something that I may well live to thank the Brexiteers for. They will have got the right answer for the wrong reasons. I am also pleased to find some coherence in the outpourings of the thousand monkeys in that we have to properly go out into the cold and then see where we can go from there, rather than the trite have-cake-and-eat-it witterings of the man-child BoJo “what happened there”. Theresa May needs to shut up with Brexit means Brexit and say we will leave the EU and do whatever needs to be done to control immigration. It is what the proles voted for, although the toffs and BoJos of this world didn’t really give a toss about immigration because cheap labour ain’t such a bad thing if you have Capital. But they have the tiger by the tail and need to keep quiet about that. There’ll be reason enough for the masses rioting on the streets in the coming decade without giving them the extra excuse of we was robbed as far as hearing people not speaking English.

    If we want our country back then we have to accept the economic devastation that goes with that; most trade is done with one’s neighbours. And this is a fight that will be lost less by Capital rather than Labour. The next ten years won’t be a good time if you’re earning minimum wage, and don’t even think about having children if so, it’s not going to be a good time if you are poor and elderly, it’s going to be rough if you owe too much money, though you may be saved from buying too much house by the inflation. But we’ll have our country back, what’s left of the former glory to scavenge in the twisted wreckage. And in ten years’ time we may hear that massive explosion go up next door, and be grateful for “Fog of Brexit in Channel, Continent cut off“. Once upon a time a more gallant Britain put a lot of blood and guts into alleviating a European tragedy, but we are all individuals and there has been no such thing as society since ’87, so we’ll probably shrug and say “nothing to do with us”.

    Decline is like that. The Empire isn’t coming back and neither are the 1950s. There aren’t any good options here. The proletariat of the West is losing the economic fight because they are becoming less and less relevant to production/ productivity, and the enfeebled body politic seems to search and find no answer because it has caretakers, not leaders 8 at the switch. In the words of Oswald Spengler

    There wakes at last a deep yearning for all old and worthy tradition that still lingers alive. Men are tired to disgust of money-economy. They hope for salvation from somewhere or other, for some true ideal of honour and chivalry, of inward nobility, of unselfishness and duty. And now dawns the time when the form-filled powers of the blood, which the rationalism of the Megalopolis has suppressed, reawaken in the depths.

    We want our country back rises the rallying cry. You got it, buster. Enjoy the ride.

    No doubt Brexiteers will moan that I am talking Great Britain down. Sod y’all. It’s my blog and my vision of the future. I’m not saying it’s right, it’s what I think is most likely. I went to Oxford for a conference a week or so ago, and I saw levels of rough sleeping that remind me of Thatcher’s London in 1981.

    Oxford High Street – lots of happy well-to-do people buying shiny baubles and nary a Money Shop, charity shop or other sign of deprivation in sight. But at night the character of the city changes, the empty shop doorways are populated by the homeless with tinnies in their hands. Even in the day there’s a high level of street begging. Brexit ain’t even started yet!

    At least in London you have the urban heat island effect on your side as a rough sleeper – Oxford was bloody cold even in a camper van with electric hookup and a heater. The rough sleeping is a lot worse than when I went there two years ago, and that’s despite the Brexiteers’ triumphalism that the economy is going so swimmingly. We haven’t started to leave the EU, never mind finished it yet, there is time enough for some though not all of Project Fear to show up in the next five to ten years. If we’re gonna run on magical thinking, then let’s at least have the right sort of magical practitioners, and Govey-boy and your Brexit Central ain’t the right sort at all.

    2017 – welcome to the decade of the candy diet 9 and the wrong sort of magical thinking.

     

    Notes:

    1. There’s a decent argument that the Gnomes were only responding to UK own goals then, the forex market doesn’t seem to be particularly partisan, but it does recognise economic folly and try and route round it
    2. I am personally of the opinion this is A Good Thing, interest rates of 4-6% which is the historical long term average for the UK please
    3. that is earn as in sell my time for money, rather than earn as in interest and dividends, ie making money from Capital
    4. This would be a barmy way of running my portfolio/income, use a five year integration period. I had a crap last year of -7% and -1% year before that, though previous years were well into double figures. The 5 year integration is much more even. Nevertheless, the Brexit fall in the pound is a localised and as a filthy capitalist I am of the view that the capital is worth the same but measures different, while the proles income measures the same but is worth less.
    5. I am not actually sure that Britain is capable of Northern European economic rigour, so perhaps not
    6. In fairness that ‘we’ shouldn’t really include Brits, who were always Das Inselreich
    7. among all the other net contributors – more here
    8. Exhibit A is the tosser David Cameron. Not only did he not have the balls to refuse the referendum and say this was for Parliament to decide in the first place, but then when he didn’t get the answer he wanted he scarpered at the earliest opportunity. Imagine the shit we’d have been in if Churchill had bottled it in the Blitz.
    9. H/T Monevator even if it did make me despair
     
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