9 May 2015, 6:41pm
economy
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  • England’s shy Tories take the day

    Surprise result to the election it appears, well a surprise to the punditry though not necessarily to the odd canny investor 🙂 Shy Tories turned out in force and David Cameron is back in No 10, without the moderating influence of the crybaby Nick Clegg, who marched his party to their greatest success and their greatest doom all in the same action. I had a temptation to go with the headline England goes John Galt but that’s probably taking it a little bit too far, even in search of a decent headline. Why are shy Tories shy? – presumably because of the Scruton doctrine

    ‘Leftwing people find it very hard to get on with rightwing people, because they believe that they are evil. Whereas I have no problem getting on with leftwing people, because I simply believe that they are mistaken’

    Most people pursing financial independence will probably benefit on the finance front relative to other possible outcomes, some of the key items of the Tory manifesto are

    • Take everyone earning less than £12,500 pa out of Income Tax altogether 1

    Now on a technicality pension income doesn’t count as ‘earning’ although it’s subject to income tax, but the Tories probably don’t want to piss pensioners off either. The changes in personal allowance are quite transformational for the value of pension income, particularly when combined with Osborne’s changes. Before the Coalition, the personal allowance was £7,200 – with the best will in the world it’s probably a struggle to live well with an income below that even if you have paid your house off and gotten shot of the kids, whereas according to TFS £10,000 p.a. allows for relative luxuries including a serious consumption of alcohol which is just as well since it appears that pensioners are a bibulous bunch going on regular benders.

    I could wish for an end to the theatre of of passing laws to try and embed rises in taxes etc. The whole point of government is to pass laws, and to unmake them, so this is a damn fool waste of parliamentary time. As the old boy Yoda said, do or do not, there is no try. There’s no need for a faux legalistic framework, simply follow your manifesto and don’t put up the specific range of taxes you said you wouldn’t.It’s not like last time, Dave, where you could blame Nick for stopping you implementing Conservative manifesto promises. And let’s face it, you landed the mother of all sucker punches by getting Nick to renege on his no rise in tuition fees 2010 manifesto promise 😉 Nearly all voters have a dog in that race – either their children entering university or their grandchildren

    For those working and earning well I guess

    • we will raise the 40p Income Tax threshold to £50,000

    will be sort of welcome, though it’s not such a huge raise on what it was when I was working, unless it interacts with the notably raised personal allowance, in which case the combination is probably a decent lift on what it was five years ago.

    And yet the Ermine does wonder if we will get the 1980s back. Let’s have a song

    because on page 8 there is

    • We will find £12 billion from welfare savings

    Let’s hope that the theory is true that in the developed world we are all becoming more peaceful and less violent people because of the removal of tetraethyl lead from petrol. Caitlin Moran makes an interesting point in the Times (paywall, but free syndicated version in the Australian – Google is always your friend to read the Times for free – search the title 🙂 )

    Push the highest rate of tax for a few thousand people to 90 per cent and let the bin-men go on strike. Annoying but not fatal. If you are generally secure, a government can inconvenience you, make you poorer or make you angrier – it can, let’s be frank, be a massive, incompetent, depressing, maybe even immoral pain in the arse – but you, and your family, and your social circle will survive it. It is unlikely that the course of your life will be much different under one government than the next, however diverse their ideas.

    By way of contrast, what’s the worst – the very worst – that a government policy can do to you if you’re poor? Food-bank poor? Dependant-on-the- government poor? Well, everything. It can suddenly freeze, drop, or cancel your benefits – leaving you in the panic of unpayable bills and deciding which meals to skip.

    I have been lucky enough to have been in the first category, and now is time to tip a hat to Lady Luck, particularly as I came from a working class background, I grew up in a much much poorer Britain but perhaps a kinder one, and particularly one a bit more meritocratic. It’s not all luck – I didn’t spend money I hadn’t earned other than having a mortgage, which I did pay off, and I didn’t have children I couldn’t afford.

    We are all much, much richer now in material terms, but that is not enough – the contrast between us is widening 2it’s now much, much greater than they were when I was growing up. The rich are richer, strict rationalists will say the poor are richer than they used to be too, but humans are social animals who compare themselves against each other, so there be trouble in this materially better off paradise. And that, sadly, is part of the problem with how rich or poor we all feel, together with macro shifts in employment that are destroying the ability of the Average Joe to earn a living enough to buy a house and raise up to two children. It’s hard to establish what is really the cause of this – some blame the Establishment, some blame the inherent complexity and interconnectedness of the world and a loss of shared narratives, some blame peak oil and resource crunches 3, some blame the rich for ratcheting up the expectations of us all and pricing us out of the markets for fundamentals.  Take your pick, and of course remember the bearish argument always sounds smarter.

    I really hope that those £12bn of benefit cuts (can I nominate the £2bn welfare benefits for rich landowners be included in the roster of cuts) don’t give us another roll-call like the 1980s – Brixton, Toxteth, Southall, Lewisham, the Battle of Trafalgar Square. In a narrow sense I will probably be richer with the result of the elections, though there probably isn’t that much in it – I am not rich enough or poor enough to have been in great hazard from any likely government action. But I am fearful – of social unrest. As a student in London I shot grainy images of the soup kitchens under Charing Cross railway arches. That was not the Trussell Trust, but maybe it’s where it is going.

    Though I am in good health I am fearful of what will happen to the NHS in the next 30,40 years -I will need a larger emergency fund to deal with that, although at least the fear and loathing that is the US medical system is still some distance away.

    The Ermine will become richer soon…

    because I am getting older, specifically at some point I will pass the 55 mark and all of a sudden I will get hands on some of my own savings 4. Along with the saying that coffee is there to help me with the things I can do something about, red wine to help with the things I can’t, it is time to look to some of my values. I used to have a CAF card from years ago, but on that fateful day in Feb 2009 when I realised I was going to retire early I shut down all such activities. I have tried to reactivate this, because although I will become richer I will take every step not to pay tax 5. However, even as a non-taxpayer but an investor I do pay some tax, just not very much, in the form of dividend tax credits. There are in fact two great benefits of using a CAF card. The most specific one is that it makes it possible to take advantage of gift-aid and have it recorded and totted up in a way I can see, and presumably print off in evidence should I ever need to for HMRC, along with my dividend tax credits – I can track that I am not over-claiming.

    It should be noted that you can only set dividend tax credits in unwrapped accounts against Gift Aid – so ISAs don’t count. However, I have significant unwrapped holdings, and once I get hold of my own savings I will prioritise transferring SIPP money into ISA savings over unwinding capital gains allowances. So I will probably have enough unwrapped dividend tax credits for my relatively modest plans, at least until I become a taxpayer again as a pensioner.

    The second benefit is in some ways far greater. The trouble with charities nowadays is that they have adopted many of the traits of business, and in particular once they have your personal details they will pester you shitless with requests for more money, and if you’re unlucky, sell your details to some sort of do-gooding sucker’s list to other like minded sorts. I originally got a CAF card to avoid that malarkey. The Ermine has a simple principle when it comes to charities – unless there’s some sort of return, like with my RSPB membership 6 where it actually does something for me to reveal who I am then I want anonymity. Particularly if it’s a charity that deals with human problems, anonymity is king – don’t call me, I’ll call you, because of this selling of mugs lists.

     

    Notes:

    1. Conservative Manifesto 2015 page 5
    2. As an example, CEO pay was about 40 times that of the grunts (US study, Table 6), compared to over 200 times now
    3. I generally fall into this category, though I subscribe a little to the other camps too
    4. Yeah, I know, I don’t so much become richer but I get access to my own money
    5. I will run out of road on that once I draw my main pension, but I still have a few years of flying under the HMRC personal allowance to go
    6. where I get into RSPB reserves like Minsmere that normally charge for free or effectively prepaid with membership. Most RSPB reserves don’t charge.
     
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