4 Oct 2012, 11:11am
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  • Tell Sid…about the Direct Line IPO

    RBS is flogging off some of their holding in Direct Line with an Initial Public Offering (IPO) to close on the 9th. On the face of it, there’s a lot to be said for Direct Line, one of the larger UK motor insurers.

    Motor insurance is something you have to have. Well, I don’t but I don’t have a car, if you do then you need it and there are all sorts of threatening aggravation if you don’t, which has been recently computerised. So the elasticity of demand is lower than for more elective forms of insurance, like life, house or contents insurance. DL does write a fair amount of that, too, FWIW.

    Normally, when you buy shares, there’s some history. You shouldn’t use that because previous performance is not guarantee of future gains etc, but it seems to work often enough in combination with some valuing of the company, leastways with dividend targeting. The trouble with an IPO is you don’t have any history other than what’s in the Prospectus, and the information on valuation is provided by the IPO sponsors ;) In the end deciding whether to go for an IPO is all about valuation, which is a bastard, because of this (brazenly pinched from the pricing press release):

    • Price range set at 160 pence to 195 pence per share.
    • Offer of up to 500 million shares (the “Offer Shares”) (prior to any exercise of the over-allotment option), comprised solely of existing shares being sold by RBS Group.
    • Expected offer size in the region of 375 million to 500 million shares, representing between 25% and 33% of the existing shares.
    • Over-allotment option of up to 15% of the aggregate number of Offer Shares (prior to exercise of the over-allotment option) granted by RBS Group.
    • The mid-point of the price range implies a market capitalisation for Direct Line Group of approximately £2,663 million.

    So you get to make an offer on a moving share price target that can vary by 20% from the low-water mark to the high-water mark. At the top end, if every one goes for it, DL is valued at 2925 million pounds. DL also seems to make a loss on its underwriting, and there’s an OFT investigation into collusion with third party service providers in the motor insurance market. There are a lot of known unknowns.

    It’s being offered at less than RSA which is a share I own. I’m thinking of hitting this in my ISA, which happens to have a lot of space in it due to the fracas invoved in moving it from iii to TD direct.

    Insurance companies fit my desire for yield, however, I already have a shocking weighting towards insurance in my ISA, despite RSA’s best attempts to reduce it ;)  The sector represents about a sixth of the asset allocation, and this could potentially more than double. OTOH perhaps I should look at my equity holdings as an integrated whole, in which case it’s a lot less bad because my ISA is < 50% of my holdings at the moment and there’s no insurance in the unwrapped part.

    Tactically, in the event I do come to the conclusion this works for me, I will leave it to close to the deadline. October has bad memories for Sid because the 1987 stock market crash hammered the BP IPO across Black Monday, the anniversary of which just happens to be when DL shares become freely tradeable (Oct 16th, Black Monday was 20 Oct 1987). And the stock market is frothy at the moment with no good reason I can see. However, that yield is attractive. So far I haven’t fallen into any value traps, but there’s always a first time :(

     

    FWIW, I don’t intend to go for the IPO. DL is a good company, though, and I look forward to getting some if the sp drops sometime after flotation.

    I think these are a far better punt than the average IPO, for what it’s worth.

    Why? Because RBS wouldn’t be selling up unless it had to.

    Normally the ‘insiders’ will time an IPO to take the most money out of public hands that they can, but this time they’re being forced to be the Eurocrats. You can see what a rotten time it is to list by the yield on RSA that you own, and other insurers.

    As a result, I think it’s being priced fairly cheaply.

    One caveat is that RBS is going to keep dumping shares on the market for 18 months, which could depress the price. In fact, that’s the reason I probably won’t go for the IPO (or rather I won’t go for it because I don’t want to sell anything to fund it — and it’ll make me feel less bad about it, as the price could be volatile! :) )

    Just a hunch, but I think in 5-10 years it could look like a good ‘un. :)

    7 Oct 2012, 8:16pm
    by ermine


    Thanks for your thoughts, guys. I’m tending towards a bite on the IPO.

    I still hate October in the markets, and I never event went for the BP stock ;)

    Did you take a nibble? Looks like a quick stagging profit of 5% or a little more is on the cards, assuming the markets don’t tank next week. :)

    Yep, I went for it though I got kicked back somewhat, I pitched for £7500 and got knocked down to £5000-ish

    May half split that for a profit if it’s there and worth having, as I don’t _really_ need such a heavy asset allocation to insurance. The putative 7% divi is attractive, but balance in all things, eh ;)

    […] of the risk of getting knocked back, selling the excess at a modest gain.  As it is I still have too much insurance and no oil firms or mining. The latter seem to be having a little of a hard time at the moment […]

    […] to the idea and why some people consider this a good idea. Unlike commercial IPOs such as the Direct Line one Vince Cable presubale owes his electors some duty of care […]

    […] reading this, through 2010, a pause in 2011 until the Summer of Rage, a bit of opportunism at the Direct Line IPO which stitched me up in adding cash to my ISA though it was profitable enough 11 and a motley […]

    […] the year so I had to sell some of The Firm to make space for opportunities as they came up – Direct Line last year and Royal Mail this year, so you want to pace yourself.Steady as she goes monthly  […]

     

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